Members Report 05/03/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS- Big Race Previews

2.15 Newbury

Same Difference – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/WH/BetfB) 7/1 (general) UP

So Fine – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP

Being ‘unexposed’ seems to be a good pointer for this race, namely 5 or fewer chase wins, 3 or fewer handicap chase wins. That rough guide would leave four I believe, Pineau De Re, Masters Hill and the two selections. There have only been 8 renewals and some of the numbers are small – but those two look a decent enough guide. 10 year olds have also done best. 

Same Difference – well this is just whether they can get him back to anywhere near his old chase form. He is very well handicapped and appears to relish decent ground – with some good in the description. You can write off his last run based on the length of time off and the going. That run 3 starts ago in 2014 would be good enough to get involved here I suspect. He has had another break – waiting for decent ground I suspect – and if he is ready to go should give us a run for our money. The trainer is in red hot form in the last 14 days and has a decent record at the track. At 8s I was happy to take a punt. 

So Fine…well he is more of a punt and it may be clear after two fences that he has forgotten how to jump chase fences. But, he is 14s, he is in form, and he is unexposed in this sphere. He could be very well handicapped. All conditions should be fine and for me it is just how he jumps. If he is slick and fluent then he should be right in the mix here. It is a risky one, but ultimately his price drew me in and I couldn’t resist. I would like to think Hobbs has schooled him intensively for this. He is also in form – well I dont think he has ever been out of form this season. He is an interesting one. 

You could make a case for a few in here and they all come here with something to prove. I will mention Pete The Feat having ran a cracker LTO and entered the tracker list, but is a bit exposed for this historically. I also dont think he will get an easy lead. If he repeats his last run he would have a chance. I wont go into detail on the rest as time is getting the better of me. If something else wins I will say why I didn’t like them!

Good Luck

***

3.45 Doncaster

Band of Blood – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) 9/1 (WH) UP

Having spent some time going through the trends for this race it has cut up somewhat and to n extent they are a bit irrelevant – there are also some small sample sizes that may be best ignored. Having said that, those carrying under 10-13 have done best, and with only two in that band here in this race, it will be interesting how they get on.

Band Of Blood – well he is near the bottom of the weights and at the prices he is the one I wanted to take a punt on. It isn’t the most confident of bets and is in part driven by a lack of faith in anything else, at the odds.

His best race for his last trainer came in the Irish National where he looked to lead at a decent enough pace in deep ground. He only emptied out there jumping the last couple where the petrol emptied pretty quickly.  That run, along with a graded hurdle run over 24f some time ago, suggests that this trip may be ideal. It is an unknown but he is doing something different. He was well backed the last day on his first run for Newland but never really go involved. He jumped well but just looked outpaced/one paced against those 20f specialists. Given his National run that isnt that surprising. Maybe he is a horse without a trip but I was happy to have a go at 8s. He will definitely be spot on for this – race fit- and I suspect this is his main target, rather than having eyes on another prize and this being the stepping stone. This race is not packed with consistent front runners and it is tricky to know how it will be run – but, maybe they will try and get him out near the front, where maybe he is happiest.

I find myself guessing with most of the others and this softening ground may not be ideal for quite a few. A few in here are coming after long enough breaks also, which isnt something I like necessarily in big races. We backed The Last Samuri the last day at 7/1. He will appreciate this trip, but his best form has been on firmer ground, he has been off the track for 69 days and is being aimed at The Grand National – at 3s I was just about happy to take him on. Of course all the National horses can win as they please now the weights are out but there are enough niggles – the fact this could be falsely run is also a possibility and may not suit those that need a really strong gallop. Part of me wants me to see him win this well as he could be smart over staying trips. But, he isnt 7/1 today. Sego Success departed early LTO and that in effect makes it 80 odd days since he had a proper race. That may tell in the closing stages here, or not. He wants a real test so maybe they will try and make all, to use his stamina. He may find something with more gears near the end – the selection maybe! He is also half the price.

Drop Out Joe has a bit to prove after a break and given he won well on soft last time I am not sure why he has been off the track – a problem maybe. Or maybe kept for this. He got beat in this off 136 last year and carries 151 now. He jumped poorly that day and has clearly improved since, but he will need to step forward again from this mark. The Druids Nephew wont like the ground and again, being aimed at the GN, I don’t know if he will be straight enough to win this. He, like all of them in this, clearly have the ability to win. Just A Par looks to need much further and unless there is loads of pace I am sure he will get tapped for two. The break is also a concern as was his most recent form – albeit the trainer is going much better now. Ikorodu Road is now 13 and I would hope a younger horse takes this. His best chase form is on good ground, or ground with good in it and his two most recent wins have been at C3 level. He needs a few in here to underperform for me.   

So, hopefully we get a good run for our money. If his last run was just a sign that all is not well, and not just a case of being outpaced, then he may struggle. But, at 8s happy to take the chance. They all have the odd question to answer in here so I want one at a decent price. Hopefully he can continue the trend of every renewal being won by a different trainer to date. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

March Trainers

2.35 Donc: Bears Affair NR/ Sugar Baron (both 12/1<) WON 7/2>5/2

2.50 Newb: Saint Charles (12/1<) UP

Jumps Handicappers

2.50 Newb: Red Devil Star (20/1<) DNQ

3.30 Strat: Ballyvaughan WON 12/1>5/1 / Lord Ballim Fell (at last, when going to win,12/1)

4.35 Newb: Take A Break (12/1< ) DNQ

OTHER

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

-4.35 Newb: Florida Calling UP

Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo: 

-2.00 Donc; Mountain King (14/1<) NR

-2.15 Newb: So Fine (14/1<) UP

Pam Sly Females:

-4.05 Strat Bonnets Vino (14/1<) BD

***

That is all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • Glad you’ve tipped him, Josh…I’m in a paid service that tipped him this morning at 20s, so have £20 e/w at that price. All my “good things” never seem to come in, though lol.
    Paul

    Paul 04/03/16 5:58 PM Reply


    • Ah damn, that doesn’t make my 8s seem much value haha, that is a good price. I think he is worth a go at 8s, should get a run for money and hope they try and make all,as last connections tried in Irish National.

      Josh Wright 04/03/16 6:04 PM Reply


      • for those that missed the advice, they were happy to recommend it as a single at 9/1 a little earlier

        Paul 04/03/16 6:16 PM Reply


  • josh any thoughts on baby king 2.50 newbury I like it a lot conditions should suit run well at newbury before in a class of race that hes capable at and I thought he was tenderly handle in the betfair after blowing the start and if trainer thought enough of him to run in that race must surely be capable of winning this 20/1 is a nice price

    antony church 04/03/16 7:28 PM Reply


    • Yep, I did look at him and in truth may just throw 1/2 because I tipped him LTO! Won’t tip in that race but agree with everything you have said,and maybe worthy of one more go. Did think he may need a strong pace but that is no betfair hurdle and he has a long straight to wind up here.

      Josh Wright 04/03/16 7:42 PM Reply


  • Sorry for the stupid questions. Is 12/1< greater or less than ?

    andy 04/03/16 8:37 PM Reply


    • All questions welcome on this blog…less than, I should make that clearer, so that is 12/1 or shorter SP.

      Josh Wright 04/03/16 8:51 PM Reply


      • So if you bet at 12/1 now and the price drifts to SP 14/1 the bet doesn’t count. win or lose ? I’m not trying to be awkward here, just trying to understand your system and how you yourself use it. Do you bet on early prices or wait for SP ?

        andy 04/03/16 10:25 PM Reply


    • Andy
      Wondered that myself a few weeks ago but didnt want to ask. Worked it out by looking at the non-qualifers the next day.

      Mike 05/03/16 3:24 AM Reply


  • So if you bet at 12/1 now and the price drifts to SP 14/1 the bet doesn’t count. win or lose ?

    andy 04/03/16 9:04 PM Reply


    • Yes I will write a systems post next week, and have a master post with links to all the angles/reports that are followed.
      Well, it would not count in the official results but odds systems are like that and it all evens out – most are quite obviously a qualifier or not – there are some that loiter on the boundary – over time you back some that drift out and lose – every now and then a drifter – outside of ‘official range’ will win, making up for the losers, likewise you may miss a horse that gets backed into range and then loses. If you are going to follow them all systematically I would advise a separate betting bank, aside from the tips – 80 points or so I would say. Can and will his 20+ losing runs every now and then, but thanks to the portfolio of methods that doesnt happen too often.

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 10:13 AM Reply


  • 15:25 Newbury
    Ultragold Tizzard Brennan duo 8/1
    same race Pythagore French won his last two C1 in France and UK 10/1 class horse

    Pab 04/03/16 9:54 PM Reply


  • Skybet are going money back on all losers in each of the festival 1st races, nice?

    Andy Silvers 05/03/16 1:09 AM Reply


  • maybe this is just late night rambling but I have extreme interest in the 4.35

    Lucky Jim 20/1 with Paddy. 20s seems absolutely massive! Given this horse ran yesterday in a stronger race (perhaps) at the same track, was ridden very gently and just outpaced on the straight. Travelled well, handled the Newbury fences with ease. Quick return shouldn’t be an issue as he really wasn’t asked many questions. He’s getting the full point whack from me.

    Another in the race: Royal Guardsman 7/1. A very impressive hurdling CV, notably beating Ibis de Rheu at the track. Likes Newbury in general and has put in a decent chase here before. Also a tad overpriced perhaps.

    Skimming through the other runners, they all seem either handicapped out of it or have no experience over fences.

    Ripe for the taking?

    Ali 05/03/16 1:22 AM Reply


    • Also, slight drop in trip for Lucky Jim – may work in his favour, may not.

      Ali 05/03/16 1:25 AM Reply


      • non runner…always the probability

        Paul 05/03/16 8:32 AM Reply


        • had a feeling it’d all come to that

          Ali 05/03/16 10:33 AM Reply


    • Lucky Jim i had him ysterday at 46/1 i will get him today also
      Royal Guardsman look nice but i will take Trojan Star

      Pab 05/03/16 1:27 PM Reply


  • Josh have you made any progress on the Flat handicappers Profiles. I have just started to sift through hundreds of horses.When do you think you will publish them.

    John Gorton 05/03/16 8:36 AM Reply


    • Hi John – no, not yet! No progress. I am going to dive into some flat stuff for a few hours next week. I do need to get onto the profiles. They wont be published before Aintree..before end of April hopefully. How are you getting on?

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 10:15 AM Reply


  • Shame the Card at Donny is decimated by non runners, not surprising that many with an eye to Aintree don’t want to “bottom out” horses with a slog in the mud when they can get equally fit at home on decent gallops.

    The Card at Newbury looks really tricky but I will have a small dabble on Peat The Feat in the 2.15 and that’ll do for me today, keep the powder dry for Cheltenham!

    Good Luck all…

    Ian 05/03/16 9:20 AM Reply


  • Band of Blood now 9/2 from my 8/1, so I am not the only one who takes notice of Josh. Had to go to three bookies to get enough on at the 8’s though. May drift later?

    I like Marlee Massie in the 5.00 at Kelso. Good runs LTO in my book would beat today’s field?

    Good luck all today.

    I am at The Den today but will try to watch the 3.45 on the iPhone.

    Martin Colwell 05/03/16 9:42 AM Reply


    • Dont think I am a market mover yet 🙂 Money is no surprise and may be connections based and his jockey was quite bullish on the morning line. The good Dr may have had a bit on! Enjoy the football.

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 10:18 AM Reply


      • The Den and enjoyment are not happy bedfellows are they???…

        My only happy memory of the Den is the 2002 Play Off semi final with Olivier Tebily running round for 3 minutes without a right boot making tackle after tackle that would have made Stuart Pierce wince….

        Ian 05/03/16 11:28 AM Reply


  • Kelso abandoned today,BoB

    BoB 05/03/16 9:53 AM Reply


    • Just spent an hour on Kelso, found a likely couple went on to RP and meetings off….someone is telling me not to bet today!

      Ian 05/03/16 10:16 AM Reply


  • Josh have found a few that look ok. Mine are based more on Official Ratings plus distance and going. . I dont get involved with jump racing so I can spend a lot of time preparing for the fast approaching Flat season.

    John Gorton 05/03/16 10:34 AM Reply


    • Good stuff. Yep my focus will be on ratings/class ceilings as well I think, and any other clear indicators. I should find a few to entertain us through the summer months, with any luck.

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 10:41 AM Reply


  • any thoughts on the 1.45? got a risk-free bet to use on it

    Im thinking Spice Fair is the sensible bet since form franked by Tornado in Milan

    Ali 05/03/16 11:08 AM Reply


  • I couldn’t ignore this comment from Kim Bailey. Last Samuri won nicely!

    This is a hugely important race for The Last Samuri and also for the yard here. Trained for this race and he is in peak shape.. The recent rain is a worry but if he can handle what looked nasty ground yesterday then we will be a very worthy favourite and should win this!

    Waftycranker 05/03/16 3:53 PM Reply


    • Yep, did that really well, and no surprise he won, but happy to take him on at prices. Easy after race as made 3/1 look big, but i’m usually eager to take on 3/1 shots. Thankfully we have backed him once this season already! Well done for going with him.

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 3:57 PM Reply


  • Happy with my 38/1 Betfair tenner on Last Samuri

    Ian 05/03/16 4:09 PM Reply


  • Well done for picking the winner in the Stratford 3.30 Josh, but how’s this for bad luck; I backed Ballim e/w with stan james early in the day at the incredible odds of 25/1. He approaches the last with a 3 length lead and the 3rd horse another county back and yep he falls! I only had it £1 e/w as I;m currently unemployed, but the returns would have been welcomed all the same. You couldn’t make it up could you. Seems I’ll have to settle for drowning my sorrows with a cup of coffee rather than celebrating with a pint lol.

    Lee 05/03/16 4:42 PM Reply


    • Ah damn, yep I backed both as I do with most system bets, (bit ‘only’ at 12s) so was happy either way, but yes that 25/1 return would have been nice! Unlucky. Hope you had a nibble at winner also?

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 4:44 PM Reply


  • The 2.15 at Newbury was pick able if you look at D Pipe in that race. You would have to back both I think but at the odds you could have ditched. Samategal got me out of trouble today. I thought that 7/1 was a good price.

    Martin Colwell 05/03/16 9:24 PM Reply


    • Yep agree. I couldn’t get myself to a point where I could overlook what I wrongly perceived as a major question over stamina. I should have paid more attention to Pioes record.That puzzle went unsolved! Of course there were mayjor questions over the selection also but was convinced if others ran their race he would be outstayed. As it happens it turned out not to be very competitive at all. Moving on. Well done with the Nicholls horse.

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 9:31 PM Reply


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