Well that was some relief as Theatre Guide romped to victory and he won as I hoped/imagined he might. Hennessy form is always worth keeping an eye on and it was about time he showed his true potential. He needs a strong pace to aim at and he must get into a rhythm – if he jumps the first two or three fine, you know you are in business. Hopefully the ‘capper doesn’t hammer him too much, but 10lb or so may not stop him. Another peach of a ride from Paddy Brennan. That was a very good race for me and there may be plenty in behind worth following. Always annoyed I never tip 2 point win when they bolt up like that, but there we go!
The Eider was disappointing. RB never looked happy. It is really hard to leave alone a 20/1 winner for you next time out, and although that was part heart, there was plenty of head in the selection. Maybe it was the ground, not over his last run, who knows. Glensquest gave us a right good thrill and while nothing was going to beat that winner on the day, I thought he looked nailed on for a place at one stage!
Losing runs like the last week will happen given my approach – well, any approach. November-18th Feb – were quite exceptional, and not the norm. There will be more runs like that, and there will be worse ones. I deal in profit and not winners. I will back one, maybe three, maybe more 20/1+ winners before the end of 2016 and they pay for a lot of losers! When you are generally playing in the 6/1 – 8/1 + range you will have bad losing runs. But, that is why you have to enjoy wins and horses like Theatre Guide.
Still, we are doing much better than Mr Pricewise – he’s had 8 losing months in a row now I believe and following all of his tips would make you rather poor at the moment! 🙂
A loss of around -0.75 points on the week – first losing week for some time! Still, its a lot better than it was looking at around 3.30!
As an aside – is it me or do you get the feeling that it might be the Paul Nicholls show at Cheltenham – especially in the handicaps, and especially with his hurdlers. We shall see. Tizzard and maybe King may also grab some headlines with any luck. Hendo is also starting to kick into life and Jonjo is going to have some fun I suspect. Slowly but surely the big guns are being aimed squarely at those four days in March.
Not much tomorrow…
A day off today. No ‘tipping’ races of choice that I can see. A rest day.
2.10 South – Buck Mulligan (10/1<)
4.50 Font – Ourmanmassini (12/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Well, Martin is off to Fontwell so I have found a few angles for there, plus one from Southwell. Remember these are not tips and in the case of those that follow I have not looked at the horse, nor the opposition. I will leave that to you!
-5.20 Font – Reilly’s Minor – Trainer and Jockey are 6/13, 10 places when teaming up here.
-Suzy Smith and Tom O’Brien are 3/8, 5 places at Fontwell. There is the micro selection above plus King Charlie in the 3.50
5.10 Southwell – Stamp Your Feet – George/Brennan are 14/38, 20 places when teaming up in all races at the track.
-Longsdon/Johnson are 4/11,7 places when teaming up at Fontwell – they have Wells De Lune in the 4.50 here.
-Wadham/Aspell are 7/21, 12 places when teaming up in all races at Southwell. They have Road to Freedom in the 3.40 and Whispering Speed in the 4.40.
They all have decent levels of profit over time and are performing way ahead of market expectations. Hopefully a few of them may run well, we shall see!
That is all for ‘today’