Dust of that wheelbarrow…
Loose Chips – 2 points win – 8/1 2nd 7/1
Arbeo – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (BV) 3rd 10/1
Market not yet fully formed, dont all dive in at once mind this early, you may make him fav in 20 minutes haha (that is a joke, I don’t think we move the market just yet, but a few hundred clicking at this hour may arise suspicion)
*prices as of 16.51. I don’t think Loose Chips will be put in bigger than 8s but he may.
As you may know I added Loose Chips into my tracker after his run at Warwick. I added a few in my tracker that day, and the two to have run out the race since have both won (one tipped, lucky, the other noted as an Eye-catcher on a daily post – 5/2 + 3/1)
I thought it was a brave and brilliant run all things considered. He went off like a train and didn’t get his own way up front, tussling for most of the way, switching between having an easy lead and having to track other front runners. He was also lit up early on as NF tried to get to the front and then was pulling his arms out for a time. To go that hard, for that long in deep ground, and to lead a G3 handicap chase field, was some effort to me. He faded pretty quickly, probably 7f or so from home, over 29f.
This race is clearly nowhere near as good as that one and I think he will have a much more pleasant time on the front end. Arbeo likes to race up there but I should think will be happy to sit behind. The fav has raced up there as well but I hope/part expect that Dickie will want to get him into a rhythm and ensure he jumps/stays. As such, I think Loose Chips will be able to dictate. My gut and my head says that he may well be very hard to catch!
There are no problems with race conditions and in general he has been in good form this season. He has won at the track before and based on a novice handicap chase win is still well enough handicapped. Despite being 10, this is only his 18th chase start. Longsdon is also hitting a bit of form also. I think we are sure to get a run for our money from this one and should at least be clutching our bet slips in anticipation as he comes to the pond fence. There is a small chance that he isn’t over that last run, but he didn’t have to put in a ‘finishing effort’ there – but, if he fades quickly,that will be the ready excuse!!
8/1 felt rather big to me and given the bank we have built up, and how bullish I am feeling, I have pulled out the 2 pointer – which is pretty much max win bet territory for me.
Arebeo– Well more of a punt but when looking at his profile he ticks all the boxes required. He is a dour stayer, will like the ground and has won at the track here, over fences. Albeit that was over shorter but he won despite conditions there. I think 9/1 – 11/1 underestimates his chance. He should track LC, and if he goes too fast, or makes an error, could be in the right place to slog it out up the hill. He will appreciate his light weight and his mark does not concern me. He is in form, winning form, which helps also.
I am more than comfortable taking this fav on WON and if he wins then well done. I can’t touch him at 11/4. He is 0/3, 1 place chasing and made a few errors last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly weak C2 (we had the winner that day :)) and this is an unforgiving place for a horse that may have jumping issues and who is inexperienced. Due to the pace they will go there will be no hiding place. That break is also an ‘iffy’ length for me. Jonjo is still a bit in and out (despite me thinking he is about to burst into life) and he doesnt do that well here. 1/20 all handicaps last 730 days, 0/8, 1 place handicap chases. He is only 6/81 with all runners here since 2009 – for a yard of his caliber that isnt great. Anyway, he can win, clearly. He is young, unexposed, looks like he wants a trip etc. But I cant touch 11/4. I hope he is held up. It could be suicidal, given his profile, to try and go with LC, and would also compromise his chance.
Dancing Shadow is yet to win a race and likes placing, 0/11 in career now. Dartnall is also a bit cold, all 6 of his previous runners finishing unplaced. His placed form, and progressive profile entitle him to be up there, but i’m happy enough to leave at 6s. Sands Cove is interesting as he is still unexposed for this trainer – his profile is exposed. Now 0/15, 4 places at C3 level and you would think he needs more, albeit his last run was decent enough. He is a proper hold up horse (or has been) and he will be under huge jumping pressure when trying to close the leaders. Not for me here. I’m happy to take on the rest and wouldn’t really want to back any of them on their profiles/recent form.
Nope, that will be it for Tips.
I will be cheering on ‘Pendo’ at Fakenham tomorrow, from my couch admittedly. (I can’t get there) She was a member of our cycling club back home ‘Mildenhall CC’ (my parents are keen cyclists/members/involved etc) and as you would expect dominated the cycling scene in her teens at our annual cycling rally – her Dad still organises the grass track cycling at this event. So, that is my personal connection and I for one think what she is doing is great, for her and our sport. Plenty of moaners cannot stand the project. There are some very sad and jealous people in this world of ours.
Fry Mares (10/1< guide): 2.45 Sand: Jessbers Dream* WON 11/2 (in places morning) 9/2 SP
*this one could be short again,and not many of his seem to go off at a price, which is stating the obvious I know, but maybe the market is well in tune with his now. Just a hunch for now. Something for me to keep an eye on. At least we have Pam Sly to wave the fillies/mares flag
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catching me eye today.
That is all for today.
CHELTENHAM: ALAN KING
A quick micro for ‘the maestro’ that is Alan King. He is not in the guide as I only included those with 2 or more wins in the ‘trainer profiles’ section.
Anyway, one of you, Anthony has made a few ‘Cheltenham Handicap’ related comments and also sent me an email about his place record with certain runners. So, I got digging..
(last 5 festivals)
Handicap Chases: 1/20, 2 places
Non-Handicap Hurdles: 0/23, 4 places
Non-Handicap Chases: 2/15, 6 places (they are clearly worth keeping a close eye on – go on Smad!- dreaming there maybe!)
HANDICAP HURDLES: 1/20, 8 places…
It is the place record which catches the eye…
A few general pointers before ‘the angle’
- In the Fred Winter: 6 runners, 3 places (no runner last two seasons)
- French Breds: 1/6, 3 places
- Up more than 1f in trip from last run: 0/4, 0 places
- Placed LTO: 1/12, 6 places. 0/8, 2 places did not
- Days Rest:
- 16-20 days: 0/5, 3 places
- 21-30 days: 0/8, 0 places
- 31-45 days: 1/6, 4 places
So, if you looked at his handicap hurdlers, Did Not run 16-20 days ago, NOT moving up in trip by more than 1 furlong...
That leaves 10 bets / 1 win / 8 w|places (all of his placed runners)
A formline of…
13, 3 (16/1), 2 (33/1), 13,13,3 (3/1), 13, 2 (14/1), 1 (33/1), 7, 13, 3 (20/1)
So, that is something to keep an eye on.
The rest pattern is interesting given form of those either side of it. It could be the tracks they run at in that 21-30 day period, or the races not being good preps for the Festival. I don’t really know, and it could just be luck/random But, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
That’s all on him.
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