Members Report: 18/02/16 (LATE UPDATE- SYSTEM!…)

Two Tips for tomorrow just posted, write up to follow…

Dust of that wheelbarrow…

TIPS 

4.20 Sandown 

Loose Chips – 2 points win – 8/1 (WH/Lad) 7/1 (bet365/SB/BetfS) 

Arbeo – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH) 9/1 (bet365/SB) 

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A decent enough 4 point profit on the day to keep things ticking over. I underestimated just how testing it would be at Towcester and if I had my ‘you need a proven slogger’ mindset in sync we could have been celebrating a double. But, not to be and we can’t get too greedy! The Buckler horse was fairly well backed, nearly halving in price, but found that heavy ground, after persistent rain, a bit of a struggle I think, not really going anywhere. Albeit I clearly expected better and thought he would improve for the test! Our winner (Proud Gamble) looks like he may get further and appreciate a more galloping track. We shall see. He could go on from here. A win can do a lot for a horse’s confidence. 

Anyway. 

Two new articles are up for you to flick through in your own time…

  1. WEEKLY DIARY HERE>>>
  2. GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL STATS+TREND

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TIPS

NO TIPS TODAY

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

2.10 Leic – Gold Ingot (12/1<) 2nd 5/1>9/2

3.20 Leic – Global Dream (12/1<) WON 2/1>13/8

Other 

K Lee Chasers:

2.45 Leic: Jayo Time (12/1<) NR

3.55 Leic: Simply Wings (12/1<) 2nd 16/1>12/1>8/1 sp

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

3.40 Kelso – Takingrisks – 7/2 – not the biggest price in the world but maybe something to get us through a fairly quiet day! Nicky Richards is 9/18, 9 places with his national hunt handicap debutants. He is 2/7, 3 places at Kelso with such runners in the last 5 years. He may have been fortunate to win LTO but was staying on and was running well, and the stats suggest the trainer’s horses usually step forward when running in a handicap. The second that day has since placed, and the third has won. He smashed those two that day, so at least there is some substance to his form. Richards is also in form, 5/13 last 30 days, 2/4 last 14 days. All in all, I have seen worse 7/2 shots.

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That’s all for today. 

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CONTACTING ME….just to say that the contact form on this blog doesnt really work so apologies about that. I will try and get it fixed at some point, when the blog is redesigned and made more user friendly in places. The best bet is to either leave a comment or email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … 

There can be problems with certain email addresses and my email system. So if you have joined the ‘donations club’ and haven’t received a welcome email, including the complimentary Cheltenham Guide, please email me and I wil sort it out. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • Simply Wings for the Lee/Moore partnership in the 3.55 at Leicester might represent bit of value at 16/1 with bet victor

    gerry 17/02/16 5:27 PM Reply


  • Had a look through the 3.00 last night and all the signs seemed to point to Emma Soda for me, so was hoping to wake up to a tip for this one!

    Went with your tip in the end, in order to reinvest in your Proud Gamble win.

    The Emma Soda win made me smile, I admit – it shows that our thinking was bang on the right tracks and, thanks to your incredibly helpful ‘worked examples’ of chase analysis, I am able to make solid calls myself

    Ali 17/02/16 6:03 PM Reply


    • Yep – in the context/hindsight of the test it turned into she certainly did – ah shame you didnt have a saver, I nearly did when I saw the sleeting rain, but didnt. But, yes, that is a good sign moving forward – even when you dont back the winner it is always comforting when the winner isnt a surprise – thats a good sign. On another day I may have picked her out. As always you are weighing up the ‘have been there and done it’ horses and those that may improve for doing something different. If I had the ‘been there and done it’ mindset for Proud Gamble, I would have left him (yet to win etc, prove liking for ground albeit signs were ok) yet if I had the been there and done it mindset for Towcester, we would have had that winner – she was the only one who you be sure would stay if it was a slog etc. That’s racing, and why we enjoy the challenge. Albeit – in real stamina tests like that, in general I like to side with ‘been there and done it types’.- and badly underestimated the severity of today’s test – that admittedly I was hoping the selection would do better than that. He didnt!

      Josh Wright 17/02/16 6:39 PM Reply


  • Didn’t realise Jayo Time had left Dr Newland for Kerry Lee…am surprised it has gone Chasing, ssen it at Warwick a few times, very small horse barely bigger than a pony…has a great engine mind!

    Ian 17/02/16 7:14 PM Reply


    • Interesting…that would explain why he may have done well at Ludlow, given I believe their fences are easy enough. Not sure how they compare to Leicester but they have a few tricky ones, and thats a tough hill for a small horse so we shall see how he gets on! Havnt backed him at that price mind, albeit hope he bolts up.

      Josh Wright 18/02/16 11:42 AM Reply


  • I am at Fontwell tomorrow and one of my allies is already down there and says the going is heavy. I think that the Bradstock horse in the 3.30 Blackdown Hills will stay and may turn over the hot pot? A bit of 10/1 about now. Also Ms Dunn has a couple of runners that will be fit. Each way Chasing Fairies in the 5.10 and Black Narcissus to out jump the favourite.

    Martin Colwell 17/02/16 7:33 PM Reply


    • Blackdown Hills is apparently fit and buzzing at home and is expected to do well.

      jon 17/02/16 8:58 PM Reply


  • Thanks for another decent winner today Josh. Small donation sent.

    Keep up the good work.

    Tony Brannan 17/02/16 7:41 PM Reply


    • Cheers again Tony,I did see that come in,much appreciated and pleased that approach works for you…it works for me,and I will try my best to keep giving you reasons to chip into the pot!

      Josh Wright 17/02/16 7:46 PM Reply


  • Interested to know how you lot will be playing the 2.10 at Leicester

    Is the favourite one to be taken on with either the system selection or the Twiston-Davies horse (all of his are worth considering at Leicester)?

    Ali 17/02/16 9:23 PM Reply


    • If you have to play the 2.10 I would lay the favourite, but I could not name who would win. The NTD horse cam back from a long time off and did not run well.

      Martin Colwell 17/02/16 10:13 PM Reply


  • Takingrisks nr

    Paul 18/02/16 8:49 AM Reply


    • Well, a very quiet day indeed!

      Josh Wright 18/02/16 8:51 AM Reply


  • Hi,

    I just spoke to someone here at Fontwell (yes I am here very early) linked to the Mulholland stable and they say Lee Side Lady will sluice up. Not much of a price and don’t mortgage your house! I was on Takingrisks last night to get an early price and so gutted it is not running. The going here at Fontwell looks heavy so watch your bets.

    Martin Colwell 18/02/16 10:24 AM Reply


  • Simply wings best price now 14/1generally 12/1the 16/1 last night was very generous!

    gerry 18/02/16 10:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Nice winner again yesterday Proud Gamble 8.1 and had Breeden Hill Lad at 9/2 and couple of losers.

    Roy Bedford 18/02/16 10:57 AM Reply


    • Whoosh that was a good price on PG, well done for nabbing that! Ah nice work with BHL, Gardners been mainly out of form for an age but have had a few better weeks recently, with their small string. Suspect they had a bad virus or something. Good to see them with winners and theirs are usually a decent enough price, and are sometimes hammered.

      Josh Wright 18/02/16 11:20 AM Reply


      • Apparently, Gardners best bumper horse is going to Cheltenham (beat Ballyandy last time out at Ascot, was at 66-1 early that day!). It’s showing at 14-1, would it be this price if Mullins trained it? lol!

        Faz 18/02/16 11:40 AM Reply


        • Ha probably not. That race is a mind field albeit I havent looked at trends/stats for it, there may be some pointers. I was going to go for the – pin the racecard on my dartboard – approach! Nice to see they potentially have a good’un though. Always good for the smaller yards

          Josh Wright 18/02/16 11:45 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Well done again yesterday, nice to see those tablets still working lol.
    Greg

    greg 18/02/16 11:39 AM Reply


    • You should see the stash I have!! 🙂

      Josh Wright 18/02/16 11:40 AM Reply


  • 1.30 Clon – Robbie Power’s only ride who is 11/33 at track – Rooster Byron clocked a good time first time as hurdler on only his 2nd start – my figures are suggesting that he could well outrun his 25/1 6th fav of 7. He’s a big, staying chase type (not sure they suit track), who we are sure to be hearing more of in the future. A definite Back to Lay prospect at least imho

    Andy Silvers 18/02/16 11:54 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Nice to see that Simply Wings is a qualifier for the micros since looked like a good bet so had a nibble last night. Almost everything seems to prime for him including ground, trip, class, not to mention trainer form (6/10, 7 places in 2016 over chases). Only concern is the right handed form but he has still placed in half of his right handed runs and his only win was on a simular sort of track to Leicester. 12/1 still looks big to me.

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 18/02/16 12:18 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, yes I tend to agree, and you have to overlook the odd thing at that price! I suspect many in that field may be bigger than normal because of the weight of money for the Nicholls horse maybe. We shall see, on paper, at those odds, a good bet. And we know the ‘Lee angles’ should pay handsomely over time.

      Josh Wright 18/02/16 12:25 PM Reply


      • BTW on a completely unrelated question (wasnt sure whether to put this here or via email) but which tab on HRB do you use when looking at trainers and how they do with their handicap debutants? Was trying to look into that earlier this week but was struggling at finding the right one.

        Regards,
        Nick

        Nick Mazur 18/02/16 1:09 PM Reply


        • Hi Nick… so, obviously make sure the starting set is right – so handicap hurdlers say ( i would split into hurdlers/chasers personally) and then your said trainer.
          I use the V4 System Builder.

          -with that set you go to ‘breakdown’ along the top
          -then horse date – the middle big beige box
          -about half way down you want: H-Run (Hcap NH)

          that brings up how many times the horse has run in the national hunt handicap type specified. And obviously you want the stats next to : 0

          For flat trainers, you want the box two rows above (well it is on my screen) : H-Run (Hcap/Non)

          And you could use that for jumpers also, but if a handicap hurdler has run in a Flat handicap, it wouldnt pick up them making their debut in that national hunt code.

          I use geegeez gold for most of my ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ stats, and HRB for those that I have saved. I havent talked about my love for that product since xmas, but will wait a few more weeks before I do so again! Hope that helps.

          Josh Wright 18/02/16 1:33 PM Reply


  • A very interesting pipe horse in the opener at Cheltenham in the shape of Moon Racer.Hasn’t run since the previous Cheltenham winning a good bumper beating Yanworth now 4/5 fav for same event.This horse has had very few races, when winning last year hadn’t run since the previous October.Doesn’t seem to have any prep race entries lined up so far.Pipe is legendry for getting horses primed after long absences,lack of experience over hurdles might be only shortcoming,might have little speculative nibble at 25/1

    gerry 18/02/16 1:57 PM Reply


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