Members Report: 15/02/16 (COMPLETE)

All in all another good week, with another +10 points to the pot. 

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TIPS

4.10 Catt

Straidnahanna – 1.5 point win – 10/1 (PP/BFsports) 9/1 general WON (recorded at 9/1, which there was plenty about, dont think 10s lasted too long but hope some of you got that price – 6.75/1 after the R4 – profit on race, to advised stakes, of +9.125 points

Scotswell – 1 point win – 40/1 (Bet365/BV/Lad) 33/1 general UP – unable to lead and dictate, not sure if sulked,but made a crunching error which put paid to that. One to keep an eye on though, still go wins in him over marathon trips, maybe wait until the main man, James Reveley, is called back from France to ride him. 

 

Firstly, Straidnahanna is a system bet below also and if you are a system follower its up to you how you play it. I think I will be sticking with the 1.5 points above, albeit if I find myself getting bullish throughout the day I may throw another 1/2 at him, for the system’s benefit! 

Firstly I just can’t have any of the top 3 in the market at the prices, I just cant. Another Hero is clearly progressive and going the right way. Out of the three, with a gun to my head, he would be the one. But, I don’t think he really beat much LTO and he will need to step forward again. He is also a hold up horse in a race and at a track where I like to be handy. There are 2 or 3 in here, including both selections, who will make this a test, who could get away on the front end and who will definitely put pressure on all those jumping in behind. He will like going LH though and I wont fall of my seat if he wins, I would be disappointed if he ‘dotted’ up though, famous last words.

Lookingwell could be a fine chaser in time but this is no 4 runner – potter around in your own time – novice chase. He did more than potter around LTO in fairness but he still made the odd error. This is a completely different test for one so inexperienced. If he passes it, on only his 3rd chase start, then he could be one to keep an eye on. He has to go out there and prove it in this sphere, which makes 7/2 short enough – you will find better 7/2 shots to back I think. Warrantor was up there in market but is now drifting, and I can see why. He has it all to prove in open company having won a weak, heavy ground beginners chase at Lingfield. Again not the kind of profile i like to be jumping on in a race of this nature. He was put into a G2 on his reappearance which catches the eye, but for now i’m happy to let him prove me wrong. Money is coming for Jac The Legend, but I cant have him either. He needs to step up for me and i think there are many better horses in here than him, on what they have done in chases to date. 

So, given I dont like those four at all in context of their prices (the egg is well and truly prepared!) what should I be taking them on with..

THE SELECTIONS…

Straidnahana...goes for the crack team of Smith and Cook. She is 5/12, 7 places with her handicap chasers here in the last 730 days which is no bad thing. This horse drops in class and this is sure to be his easiest assignment this season. Indeed I think he has the best chase form of these to date. On his seasonal reappearance he ran a cracker, over slightly further, and just got touched off by a progressive, decent chaser from Nicky Richards, Gold Futures. He hasnt been seen since – waiting for good ground no doubt, worth following in the spring maybe. There was a good gap back to the rest. He then raced in a 22k C2 at Haydock, in the mud. He was coming to win that race there, albeit it was still 3 from home. But that was a good field and it was a right old slog. Not sure if a tired fall or what. But, this is no 22k C2 Haydock chase, that is for sure. It is possible on his next start (4th) that he was still feeling that run/fall. That was also a very good race, won by Sego Success (who would be fav at Warwick in their big one) with Reaping Reward in second (chased home Soll/AAchen at Sandown), Achimota who is solid yardstick in 3rd.  He didnt have much chance in a graduation chase LTO, given his rating and the weight he had to carry. That trip was too short and they were decent horses in front of him. Maybe the run was a tad disappointing, but at 10/1 I can overlook that. 

He is a prominent racer, and while he can hit the odd fence, he could find these calmer waters much to his liking. I had to back him at that price, I just couldnt leave him. If he runs his race, he won’t be too far away at all. He is a CD winner as well, which helps. 

Scotswell – well well. This is a punt. The only reason I would be put off would be the price. ‘He is 40/1, he cant win’. You SHOULD NEVER be put off by the price when at that end of the market. (I am put off by the top 3/4 due to their ‘short’ price) That can only be based on his last run, in heavy ground, after a long break, over hurdles! 3 big negatives for him. If, if, he had placed in that race, he would be a 14/1 shot here, maybe 10s. This one owes me nothing after his fine win 3 starts ago (yes you guessed it, tipped up on here! :)). He loves to front run, is a superb jumper when on song, gets this trip and a fair bit further. Better ground is ideal, but he has gone close on soft and gone close off this mark. I am praying to god that Lucy bumps him out the front, sets off quick and tries to lead them all the way. If, if he is fit, and this is not another pipe opener, hold on to your seats. Maybe he should be an EW bet at those prices, but I always want 1 point on the win side, and I didnt want to bet more on the race. If he does need the run, he wont place. I cant understand his price. When I look at his profile, his suitability for race conditions, his running style, his past form at the track in this class, the fact he has won easily of OR 121 (124 here) then I just had to have a bet. Had to. He is 10, granted, but this is only his 16th chase start. He may bomb out, but I think we will be dreaming for a time, certainly as they head out on the second circuit! (if he is held up then we know he isnt here to run well/win) 

Dangers…well I like Beeves but as yet he doesnt have the chase form of the selections, is better on better ground (does handle it though) and comes here after an ‘iffy’ looking break of 66 days – maybe waiting for the ground though. He is the other prominent racer out of the three, but I hope he doesnt cause them to go too quickly. Straid may just track the pair and pick up the pieces. I dont think Wilton Milan or Distime will stay – well they now have stamina concerns to prove, as well as form questions to answer. Shimla Dawn is unexposed but also has stamina questions, that penultimate start suggesting he doesnt stay – albeit only 4th chase start. Jury is out though. 

All in all, I think we will get two good runs for our money here, at decent prices. Maybe one of the fancied ones will go in, but i won’t be annoyed I haven’t backed them. 

Good Luck 

***

That’s all on the horses front today.

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainer

4.10 Catt – Straidnahanna (any odds) 

Jumps Handicappers

2.40 Catt – Tektehlot (12/1<) 

3.00 Plum – Fountain’s Blossom (12/1<) 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • Josh
    Good tipping again but how lucky was Midnight Prayer, Didn’t look like he was going to win before the last fence. Golden Chieften tipping up.
    It’s all in the game you win some and you lose some.

    Mike Dennis 14/02/16 8:44 PM Reply


    • Hi, well, it wasnt good tipping was it, really haha – because he was going to get stuffed, in a slow motion crawl! In the end, GC looks to have gone too hard, too soon, and that tiredness has cost him in the end, legs went to jelly over that fence maybe, albeit I need to watch it again – although I may not, it wasnt pleasant viewing. It was looking like being an awful tip – the second 2 pointer on a shortie (Top Wood the other) to go astray, so, some food for thought there. I/we got lucky, albeit you make your own luck in his world of ours imo

      Josh Wright 14/02/16 9:42 PM Reply


  • Josh thanks for the Cheltenham Guide you have put a lot of work into it,i am going away for a week but I have loaded the report onto my tablet so I can get stuck into it while away from home.Cheers BoB.

    BoB 15/02/16 6:55 AM Reply


    • Thanks Bob, yes plenty to get stuck into there. I like that checklist approach, it means a lot to sift through but has been the best way for me to unearth some stats gems, that you would struggle to find elsewhere I think. It should help with shortlisting, just then whether we pick the right ones! Looking forward to some of the trainer angles as well.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 9:55 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, have been reading this excellent blog for a month or so & have now signed up for the monthly donations. You study the same races that I do when I have the time & its great when we have the same selections as it makes me think I must be doing something right! Great blog, best around in my opinion. Many Thanks Dave.

    Dave 15/02/16 6:57 AM Reply


    • Thanks Dave, much appreciated. Glad you enjoy my ramblings. I do get it wrong more than I get it right obviously, so please do comment away when you agree and disagree with my bets, and what you may like instead and why etc! Cant beat a 3m+ chase for me. It’s not a bad blog, that’s true 🙂

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 9:54 AM Reply


  • I have seen that the Brooke McCain heap chase micro angle has a runner today.
    310 catterick. Askamore darsi

    ant 15/02/16 8:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Ant….Askamore Darsi (9/4 as of 9am this morning) has been put up on the Geegeez site for their SotD (Stat of the Day) pick.

      Martin 15/02/16 9:11 AM Reply


  • Cheers Josh. Forecasts paying 239.81 and 353.28 when I put them on at 365 (before Scot shortened)…just chucked a quid on each. Interesting to see what Scot goes off at.
    Paul

    Paul 15/02/16 9:24 AM Reply


    • oh that is tasty. I have had do so the same thing now as a 1-2 is not the strangest possibility with these two, esp as they could put a gap back to the rest at a certain point in the race. I would hope Scots is nibbled at a bit, but we shall see. Not many at that price go in, but we should have some fun with him.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 9:52 AM Reply


  • Good Morning Josh, thanks for the Cheltenham guide. You have put a tremendous amount of work into it, I’m only backing at £2 a point at present trying to build up a bank. Blog the best around. Well done.

    Edward 15/02/16 9:36 AM Reply


    • Hi Edward, thanks for kind words. That is the way to do it. When I was 18 (8.5 years ago) I jumped straight in at £20 per point, signed up to a ‘tipping’ service and swiftly lost £2600 over the course of the next 8-12 month or so – so, £2 per point is the place to start!! I then went back to £2-5 per point, and only in last 3/4 years moved up to £10, and then £20 which is what I am currently on, and will be for the time being. You bet what you can afford to lose, and what makes you enjoy the sport and enjoy backing losers if that makes sense – if you first thought after a loser is how much you have just lost, you have either bet too much, or are probably in the wrong game! 🙂
      Glad you like the guide – I do like a detailed approach! Allows readers to have a good read, pick out the stats etc they want to focus on, and make their own assessment.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 9:51 AM Reply


  • Stat of the Day has picked up a bit but is a significant loser since Christmas. Anyway let’s not knock Matt. I was due at Plumpton today but someone local tp the course told me on Sunday evening that it was very heavy ground there and to watch my bets. So home with the dogs instead today. Pass the Time seems well supported at Southwell. I was also told Torero should win easily at Plumpton but the heavy puts me off for a decent bet.

    Good luck everyone.

    Martin Colwell 15/02/16 9:59 AM Reply


    • Indeed, but their record has stood the test of time and i have been following SOTD since the beginning I think, to various stakes. Those losing runs are inevitable, but come rain or shine they make 70-110 points a year, from 1 bet a day. Always a nice little return and holiday fund! Signs of a revival of late. That’s how this game goes and I am due a quiet spell like that at some point soon! Anyone who knocks that service, well, should find a new sport. (in context of their historical record, and understanding betting) Of course, if you started following at Xmas, you may have a different view, but should really stick with it.

      good luck with your other bets, i have no views on them!

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 10:24 AM Reply


  • Josh back in the winners enclosure well done my son !!!!

    Kevin 15/02/16 4:18 PM Reply


    • Struggling to stay out of it at the moment! haha. Enjoy it while it lasts! I do keep saying that!

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:32 PM Reply


  • Brilliant,donation on its way cheers.

    michael 15/02/16 4:19 PM Reply


    • Cheers Michael – ah a perfect example of how to use the ad hoc donations buttons, if I do say so myself! 🙂 Thanks again, appreciated.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:27 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your e-mail.
    But well done for Straidnahanna. Fantastic winner. Did have a very small bet.
    Keep that music on. I listen to Abba when trawling through hundreds of handicappers.

    John Gorton 15/02/16 4:22 PM Reply


    • Ah, hi John. No problem. Ah maybe I will try Abba next time (and for those who wont know what we are talking about, John sent me an email about horse profiling etc – and no other way to find them than to trawl through them one by one, looking for gems)

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:24 PM Reply


  • defo the king of 3m chasers you is. i think your making the market move early morning as long as we dont get to to the h.taylor situ

    paddy kearney 15/02/16 4:23 PM Reply


    • Ha, not quite sure about making the market move! He wasnt too hard to find, and did stick at 9s and then 8s for a time. Shame about the chunky 25p R4, as would have fancied him in that mood to beat the lot. But, wont complain. Long way before I move the market, but who knows. Some thinking to do if that ever does happen.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:27 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh got a sore throat with shouting him home.Great stuff.BoB

    BoB 15/02/16 4:25 PM Reply


    • You and me both. The way he jumped 3rd last was it, or second last – game over – when they jump like that, late on, you know got plenty up sleeve, found plenty on run in. That is probably his level it would appear, still time on his side mind

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:34 PM Reply


  • Well done mate. On that three times since I had a bet of my own accord last night before having one for your micros and than your tips. Nice when it works out that way considering I had a total of 4 pts on that. Having backed Hartside last week I am kicking myself now for leaving it out today. Would certainly upgrade Jac The Legend’s run since according to the trainer he will be aimed at the marathon distances on soft/heavy ground so to me he probably needs further and arguably deeper ground.

    Nick Mazur 15/02/16 4:26 PM Reply


    • Ah good stuff, a nice 4 pointer, think I ended up having 2.5pt in the end as I appeared to get more bullish and realised on the system side that if he won and I didnt have that on, i would be kicking myself!
      Good shout about Jac – ran better than I thought he may and looks like he needs a trip. The Eider? not sure if he is in it or would get in – havent looked. The way he stayed on, around a track that wouldnt suit a galloping stayer coming off the pace, suggests he should go in the notebook. His last hurdles win was over 27f, in the mud, so clearly some reserves at his level. A future regional national winner somewhere maybe. Kelso/Borders National maybe.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:36 PM Reply


  • Well done Joss, I am not a big gambler and sometimes I do your selection and sometimes I don’t (normally regret the latter). Anyway I will donate as and when. Donation on its way

    Pat 15/02/16 4:28 PM Reply


    • Cheers Pat, much appreciated and glad you had a piece. You dont need to be a ‘big gambler’ to enjoy this great game of ours!

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:37 PM Reply


  • Nice winner Josh, thanks. I got on at 8/1.

    I see Mr Tizzard had 2 winners in the heavy at Plumpton, one with Brendan Powell on board. I reckon that this trainer and jockey combo is worth looking at.

    Martin Colwell 15/02/16 4:33 PM Reply


    • Yep maybe and I will have a dig – but he is effectively stable jockey, with Brennan riding Cue Card owners horses, and few others every now and then. They are the main guys, so not like it is a ‘behaviour’ angle – ie, Tizzard doesnt just book Powell when he has a live one, he rides plenty, + is retained by owners of Golden Chieftan – well he rides all their horses for Tizzard when he can. I will look at it, and there may be an angle. He is just a very good trainer, but probably a general angle or two for him.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:39 PM Reply


  • Great pick again, Josh. You’re doing SotD’s usual job of subsidising everything else at the moment. Thanks,
    Paul

    Paul 15/02/16 4:33 PM Reply


    • haha, glad to be of service!

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:40 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh – I had a 25p each way Lucky 31 on some tips from another service I use; Sign Manual 8/1; Billy No Name 3/1; Hartside 5/1 and Aylas Empire placed at 16/1…wanted a 5th one so took Straidnahanna from your advice and got 8/1 – done a quick tot up and I reckon that pays around a grand…will drop you a donation tomorrow when I’ve collected for you input…(if the 16/1 place had won….DOH …but can’t be greedy! Magic tipping again THANK YOU

    Ian 15/02/16 4:41 PM Reply


    • oh lovely stuff. Well done, top betting that is – that will pay for plenty of beer/wine of choice! Glad to be of service and sounds like that other service has had a decent day too! Yep you cant be too greedy in this game.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 4:43 PM Reply


      • some of it will go in to the Cheltenham pot to follow your advice’s so will be great if you get a load of donations as a results of more wins……..I do like a L31 normally do well to break even over a month but as I always say, you only need to cop 3-4 a year to make a nice pot…keep up the great work THANK YOU

        Ian 15/02/16 5:06 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh and thank you for another winner.Unfortunately I took 8/1 with Paddy Power which was fine but they have yet again screwed me with a whopping Rule 4 deduction.
    This seems to happen every time I back a winner with them.
    Anyone else have this experience?

    Tony Brannan 15/02/16 4:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony, 25p R4 (which is what was PP i think from my account) was standard after withdrawal of the fav i thought. B365 were also 25p R4 when i checked, after Jonjo’s came out.

      Josh Wright 15/02/16 5:02 PM Reply


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