UPDATE: Ah, well a +10 point profit day is not to be sniffed at but disappointed we didnt get any run for our money in the big one. The 1st and 2nd were in the ‘shortlist’ of 11 so at least that trends/stats profile did the trick, shame my pin didnt land on the winner. In hindsight his form was already much better than the selections and was open to plenty of improvement, 20/1 last night. He was also a prominent race. Well done if any of you had a piece of him. Clearly I should have spent longer looking at him. Next time. Thankfully Count Guido Deiro ensured a decent day, and a few of the eye-catchers won as well.
Blog Tips now +102.5 points for 2016.
Two duds at Kempton and I really despise not getting a run for my money or being entertained, at least approaching the last. But, that is the nature of the value game. It happens and will do many times more. Tinker was nibbled at and ran no sort of race. Not sure if he simply could not lay up with the pace but his jockey never looked comfortable. Seebright ran ok for the most part and at one time looked threatening before fading. I may want to see more before backing him. Its easier to take when you tip two that fall out the back of the tv and the fav wins. (you have to find positives somewhere!) I don’t mind that. Its rather annoying when another possible value play romps home – as that means you have missed something. Clearly I was a bit too harsh about the fav and underestimate his quality. That was a decent performance, albeit I will always be keen to take on 3/1 favs, you have to be. (of course 3/1 can be value from time to time also)
Anyway, we won 8 points last week and I am doing my best to give them back, -4 for the week. (still +92.5 points for 2016 mind!) Onto today…
No big graded/handicap chases to get stuck into for me (happy to just watch the Denman Chase) so we have two competitive handicap hurdles instead. (albeit I think I always would have looked at the Betfair Hurdle)
BIG RACE PREVIEWS
Mad Jack Mytton – 1 point EW – 20/1 (5 places…BV/PP – 20/1 general) UP
Baby King – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…SB/BV/PP) 33/1 general UP
(as Nick points out below, do shop around as you can get 28/1 with Coral, but 4 places, for Mad Jack, and 22/1 with SB – Neither would accept more than about £2.34 from me, but that doesnt stop you trying! Think I should have spent more on their casino games! Official results will be recorded at the prices, 5 places, as above, unless SP is bigger)
Well big field handicap hurdles are not my usual territory or comfort zone but I will get involved when there are some decent trends/stats to help. And of course you often get 5 places and can get stuck into some at big odds – which is also why I like big field sprint handicaps on the flat. If Baby King comes 5th its like a 7/1 winner for example. And over time, those placed profits can add to the pot. And, every now and then, one goes in!
Those of you who read the stats/trends profile for this race will know the ones i used to draw up a ‘shortlist’. Well that shortlist was 11, but still better than 22. Of course the winner may be in the discarded pile.
That shortlist is as follows: War Sound / Kalkir/Sternrubin/Mad Jack Mytton/Forest Bihan/Modus/Agropart WON/Starchitect 2nd/Blazer /Champagne At Tara /Baby King
Now, I hope one of those goes in to uphold the profile I used, but we shall see. I wanted to narrow it down a bit further. As an aside Mullins is 0/11, 0 places in this race to date so it will be interesting if he can improve on that record. I would think a lot of those were well touted/fancied as well.
Two further nuggets helped. Those with claiming jockeys on board dont have a great record, and neither do those dropping in trip by 1.5f or further. (so, running over 2m2f/18f or further LTO) Using those two would remove 5 more of them leaving: Sternrubin/both selections/Starchitect/Blazer/Champagne At Tara
Well they have a decent profile for this historically and they are a decent price. In a way that is enough! They are both unexposed and could still have more to come over hurdles.
Baby King does like soft so that is no problem and he looks like a stayer at this trip, rather than one who just sees it out. There is plenty of pace in here on paper and in this ground, the race could be run to suit. He has yet to be tested in a big field like this and I am interested to see how he goes. I had to back him at 33s given his place on the shortlist and the fact he will handle conditions. He may not be good enough, but as yet I dont know, and am happy to pay to find out at those odds. Tom George is also in great form at the moment as well, which is a positive.
Likewise Mad Jack Mytton has improvement to come. I don’t know if this ground will suit -it is an unknown, he hasnt had chance to really prove he doenst. His form behind Solstice Star when last seen, in soft, has been franked since. I am sure Jonjo is going to burst into life at some point, and maybe it will be this weekend! He has won the race before which is reassuring and he could well out-run his odds, if handling the ground.
Of the rest. Well, in general I wouldnt want to take anything under double figures in this. Where is the fun in that . Sternrubin has to overcome that he he german bred (small numbers but 0/15) and that he ran at Ascot LTO (0/54, 10 places). Champagne At Tara is the other really big price but he has plenty to prove now and I would expect someone else in the saddle if he were meant to go well. It would be a bit sickening if he went in at 40s! Starchitect is interesting but has a long break to overcome, plus a liking for this ground and I am yet to be convinced he will truly stay a strongly run race, in this ground, at this trip – being out of Sea The Stars. His wins have been small field affairs that he could dominate albeit that Cheltenham run on good is eye catching.
There are a good 4 or 5 who like to get on with this and I cant think Johnson will have it all his own way up front. Tracking or sitting off the pace may be the best place to be. I think we have two live ones on our side at the prices, but time will tell. Of course the fav may just be a good thing and if he is congratulations to connections, but I have to take him on.
Count Guido Deiro – 1 point win – 14/1 – WON 14/1>11/1
I am previewing this race for my Daily Punt Blog. The trends were never overly strong and in any case the race has cut up, but this one looks most interesting from what I can see of prices. When I get a link to that post, I will put it up. If you are on their email list you should received it soon….
Trends were emailed out by them on Friday…
The write up was just sent out in their email this week as was fairly short, repeated below…
That will be it on the tipping/race preview front.
1.50 Newb – Batavir UP/Gevrey Chambertain UP (any odds)
4.25 War – Clyne – (10/1<) WON 4/1
Fry Mares (10/1< guide) : 2.05 War: Jessbers Dream 2nd 13/8
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.30 Warw – Vivaldi Collognes – 7/2 – WON 3/1 was an eye catcher last time out here in that decent marathon chase – in fact I think I added quite a few to the notebook from that race. He travelled and jumped well in the main and it was some task for one so inexperienced. This drop in trip looks the right move. It is interesting that they run him in a novice chase here – a less demanding race and one he could enjoy more, gaining him more experience. The Curtis yard is very iffy this season and I wouldn’t want to snapping up 2/1 – but, I forget the last time I bet in a Novice chase so take my views with a pinch of salt, but I expect this one will run a decent race.
3.00 Newbury – an interesting race. Top Gamble WON 3.4/1> 6/5 (after R4) was an eye-catcher LTO, looking like in this type of ground a decent paced 2m race would be best. This is some step up in class. The question is whether this is a prep for Dodging Bullets – well it will be a prep for Cheltenham and I suspect PN has left plenty to work on. He may be fit enough to win but I cant think STD will be expected to bottom him out here, given what’s around the corner. Lami Serge (NR) is a qualifier for a Hendo 6yo Chaser angle I have shared before. He looks likely to lead them along here. Interesting. Clearly if the ‘Dodge’ repeats his Cheltenham run and runs up to his mark the others could be running for second.
Other previous ‘eye catchers’ include West of the Edge who runs in the 3.15. I still havent forgiven myself from omitting him from this list LTO as he won at 16/1 over hurdles, having been tracked due to his chase form. He wont be 16/1 here and he had a tough race that day, but he stays and likes the mud so may well run his race again, albeit there are some smart ones here, according to the ratings in any case! Cogry lines up in the 3.50 and while I think the smaller field and less competitive nature of the race will help him, I’m not sure if the trip will. I suspect NTD would be pleased just to get him jumping, for him to put in a good round, travel well and get competitive to some degree. Maybe he will have the pace if it falls apart a bit. Anyway, it would be nice to see him get back on track, and I have no strong views.
I have previously promised to highlight eye-catchers (from the weekly diary posts) so that is what I have done. Use the info as you please and if you are going to bet, please do look at the races in some depth – which isnt something I have done!
That is all on the horses front. Good Luck
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