Members Report: 12/02/16 (COMPLETE)

UPDATE: 

Just started pulling together tomorrow’s post and I have gone through the Betfair Hurdle. Selections are in that post, and below. Write up to follow at some point. For now…

BIG RACE PREVIEWS 

3.35 Newbury 

Mad Jack Mytton – 1 point EW – 20/1 (5 places…BV/PP – 20/1 general) 

Baby King – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…SB/BV/PP) 33/1 general

***

 

There are couple of decent 3m+ chases I am about to get stuck into. Selections will be up asap, by 10am at the latest as usual. 

Not too much to say about Firm Order. The prominent position he had and the way he travelled over the first two fences makes me think he would have been in there pitching near the end, but that is educated guesswork! Sadly he unseated and I don’t know enough about jockeyship and how you present a horse at a fence to be overly critical of Richie,(that’s something I should read about maybe!)  and I need to watch the replay again. That was the first time in his last 13 completed chases or so that he has fallen or unseated. Another day. That’s jumps racing for you and I think that is the first faller/unseater I may have backed this season, possibly. 

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TIPS

3.50 Kempton

Seebright – 1 point win – 20/1 (PP) 18/1 (general) UP

Tinker Time – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV) 9/1 (general) UP (PU?)

My approach is always to go through the runners before looking at the market. Then when I get to the  market I scan those at the top, skip to the bottom and work my way back up. And having gone through them all with my page of notes, when looking at OddsChecker these two jumped off the page and slapped me around the face. Those odds, given their chase form and their still progressive profiles are just simply too big in my opinion. I would be disappointed if one, or both dont out-run them. 

Seebright has done nothing wrong over fences (3/4) and has plenty of form on soft. He is still open to bags of improvement. The question is what ability remains. He was pulled up LTO over hurdles after a lengthy break but travelled well until about 3 out when it looked like a lack of sharpness caught up with him. The fact he went over hurdles suggests it was a ‘get him back in one piece after a long break’ run. They have clearly taken their time in the interim and with a lot of horses in this race look like they have been waiting for better ground.  Soft is fine and if he picks up where he left off over fences he is no 20/1 shot. He also usually races prominently which I like in general and even more so around here. The jockey is 1/4, 2 places for Dartnal in handicaps in the last two years. So, he has used him to good effect before. He is also an underrated/underused pilot. All in all I had to have a nibble. It may go astray, as many 20/1 pokes do, but as I have said before you don’t need many to go in over time to do just fine – and the truth is they are hard to find and you dont back bucket loads regularly – Highland Lodge (33/1 -28/1) and Russe Blanc (20/1) being the two biggies so far this season. 

Tinker Time – well he is another who is still open to progress and that win at Ludlow was impressive. He has won at the track over fences and is another prominent racer. They may have been avoiding heavy with him and the trainer may have learnt from last season where it looks to me that they bottomed him out/ran him too frequently at times. He has readied him after a break before so I have no real concerns on that front – and in any case he is 10/1, not 11/4. I see no reason why he cant build on that Ludlow run. There are some pretty stupid spotlight comments in the racing post on this one (geegeez gold racecards use those comments I believe) Talk of ‘only 2lb above his last winning mark’ – oh please, this is his 11th chase start of his life, can he still improve? yes, will he, I dont know, but that makes talk of 2lb irrelevant. He wont lose because of 2lbs, but I suppose that comment puts plenty off and makes the price bigger! He would have won the race the last day with an extra 9lb in his back also. So, 10/1 is too big for him I think. If he is fit enough he will out-run those odds. 

Of the rest – well I need to get on with finishing my Cheltenham guide so I wont labour on – I cant have Ned Stark at that price. I would like to see him return to some form but I cant touch him at that price, despite the big drop in class. King is also 0/12, 2 places in handicap chases at the track in last 2 years, 4/46 or so with all handicappers here in that time. Silvergrove is where he should be but I dont want to be lumping on at 3s. His form is no better than the selections for me. He may well lead them, and he could stay there, but I won’t be kicking myself that I didn’t back him. Pauling currently 0/5, 0 places all handicappers here, but that stat may not mean much yet. A Good Skin is interesting and if he won I would not be shocked. But, he is not a micro system qualifier because he has had only 1 run in last 90 days, and historically at this time of year its George’s hard race fit horses that do best. But, he has been waiting for better ground and he is still open to improvement also. If he were  a bigger price I may have looked at him for longer. He could also do with tidying up his jumping at times. Wizard Bridge has form in novice handicap chases and needs to step up. Its an insult to Tinker Time that he is the same price imo, famous last words! Tizzard is 0/9, 1 place with his handicappers here in last 730 days. (obviously Cue Card handles the track fine!) 

For one reason or another I am happy to take on the rest. The likes of Financial Climate and Shuil Royale dont have much room in their marks and I would like to think there are enough progressive horses in here to see them off. (ah, labour on I have, standard, but I like to be detailed!) 

Good Luck. 

***

That is all for today

***

4.10 – Wetherby 

NO TIP – looks a bit trappy. I think King of The Worlds is the most likely winner but wont tip at  that price I dont think. You need to be very confident at 11/4 and I can’t say I am. Out of all the system bets in that race he is also the one I would go for, but a few in here are doing a few things different (Jack Steel steps up massively in trip). Not a race to be dogmatic about, don’t let me sway you if you like one, or four!

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jumps Handicappers 

2.05 Kemp – Saffron Prince (14/1 or shorter) 3rd 14/1>12/1

2.25 Weth – Bawden Rocks (14/1 or shorter) UP 6/4

4.10 Weth – King of The Worlds (12/1 or shorter) 2nd 3/1> 2/1

Feb Trainers 

4.10 Weth – Glenn Countess UP/ Jack Steel UP/ Voyage A New York UP (all any odds) 

(blimey that is 4 in the 4.10, I bet I pick the wrong one!) 

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33 Comments

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  • are you tipping in the 4.10 then?

    Ali 12/02/16 8:48 AM Reply


    • about to look! – its a 3m+ handicap chase, and I always look at them!

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 9:03 AM Reply


      • nice one – thought as much of it!

        Ali 12/02/16 10:25 AM Reply


  • Josh what do you make of DellBuoy today? After two very strange or dare I say dodgy runs on the all weather he appears in a handicap chase today?! (Kemp 2.05)

    Tony 12/02/16 9:45 AM Reply


    • That passed me by – what the hell are they doing that for! – He has only had one chase, PU after a break. Would need to watch race but comments suggests he jumped ok, hit the odd one. Interesting. He could just not be a very good horse and running him back over fences is just odd. This is a tough track to learn your trade as a jumper and watching brief best, although he is 66/1 – and as he has no chase form, you cant say he definitely wont go well! Trainer only 2/31 with all chasers since 2011 as well. But, he is 66/1! Odd.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 10:11 AM Reply


  • 225W Cody Wyoming returns to the minimum trip (15f!) have raced at further and been pulled three times at longer trips in the autumn. Rating down six to 120 to become eligible for this and has won after an extended break, so the 11 week absence does not concern. Three wins at 2 miles, likes soft and was a good second on seasonal debut off 123 in a Kempton 0-135 with the rest beaten 23+ lengths. 13/2 currently having been both shorter and longer this morning.

    Chris 12/02/16 9:56 AM Reply


    • Hmm interesting..I would say looking at him that he handles soft, rather than relishing it, and I would be tempted to think the recent PUs are more ground related then trip – I get the trip point but would still have expected him to plod over the line and complete. All could not be well. But, you have looked at race in more depth than, and not that you would be, but dont be put off by my quick analysis! He did beat Pearls Legend once and that catches the eye. You may well get a blinding price next time he races with good in the description. Not sure if he is a big framed horse either, now 0/3, 0 places in handicaps with 11-12 on his back, a couple in more ideal conditions. I am setting myself up here for plenty of egg on my face, so I will leave it there! Good Luck!!

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 10:25 AM Reply


  • See the John James Feane horses ,noted on the comments yesterday ,both well supported for their races at Woolybags tonight

    David 12/02/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • haha Wollybags, thats made me smile. Yep bet365 a bit slow with the 7.15 one, still 11/2. Be interesting how they go but would expect a run for your money with each given the stats.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 11:01 AM Reply


      • Gone for a little each way trixie with the two Freane horses,also put in Pivot Bridge in the 6.30 Dundalk,looks like a good profile,he’s 2 wins from 3 runs over course and distance,rated 74(same as his last win)and looks to have a little pace on the inside with Sharjah from stall 3(Carried from stall 10 might help the cause) and hopefully he can get a nice position just behind the pace and his jockeys 7lb claim could make the difference at the false rail,and take his chance from there.

        robbie w 12/02/16 11:51 AM Reply


  • Everything tells me not to back DellBuoy but a lot tells me there is something going on with this horse and I don’t want to miss out……….especially at 66/1………….but you just can’t back it………can you?

    Tony 12/02/16 10:51 AM Reply


    • You and I Tony both know you are not going to be able to resist a small EW nibble or place market bet -probably fall at the first! 😉 Have to remember this game is fun and entertaining first and foremost, and well, when you have a hunch. Go with the gut, which I reckon says have a little go, a 0.25 point nibble!

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 11:02 AM Reply


  • It does not seem that long ago that Ned Stark was being touted as a potential Gold Cup horse after his novice Chase season last year, the wheels have certainly come off and whether it is a breathing issue or maybe something muscular, we don’t know, he has simply not looked the same horse. He would not be the first novice to struggle with the “older horses” and then come good and King is a master at it, one suspects if he does not perform much better today, they will put him away for the season and look at the medical tweaks before a summer in the field….one King horse I have had a few quid on today is Devil To Pay in the 2.05, a class above most of these over hurdles, one of many King prospects to then have niggles and have an extended time off, was running well until falling on Chase debut at Leicester, form of those who have run since from that race is solid and looked worth a small poke at 6/1…

    Ian 12/02/16 11:25 AM Reply


    • Yep, he will bounce back at some point and it will be good when he does. Maybe those big field races have taken him out of his comfort, going a step too quick, affecting his jumping etc. Maybe today is the day but happy to leave him at that price, albeit I hope he shows some more life. This will be much easier than recent assignments. Good luck in the 2.05 – not a race type i really look at betting wise, but thats just personal. I think I have followed Tony above and taken leave of my senses, with a £5ew bet on Dellbuoy – by some kind of miracle he may snatch third, although I am not very expectant! but at 66s, well, given backed him twice on AW, and now he is in a chase.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 11:38 AM Reply


      • just had a look at the betfair hurdle and posted on that thread = YUK!….

        Ian 12/02/16 11:59 AM Reply


        • Hi Ian/Josh

          It will be interesting to see how Ned Stark runs today. Ben Aitken at NTF tipped him up last night and I personally will be disappointed if he doesnt win today given everything appears to be spot on for him (added bonus of the 2 nrs this morning making the field even smaller). I think you can counter King’s chase form at the track with the fact that he is incredibly hot at the moment and his overall track form isnt as bad. Probably a little short now but was suprised he wasnt favourite. Obviously will be more money if one of yours wins so I can root for all three.

          After all the talk about Dellbouy I have had to have a small bet although I prefer the 33/1 w/o the front 2 in the market.

          Regards,
          Nick

          Nick Mazur 12/02/16 12:13 PM Reply


          • I think he may be got spooked at Cheltenham last March and that combined with the fact he went up something over a stone in the handicap during his novice season meant he was on a hiding to nothing, especially as they aimed high from the off this season. AK is my favourite trainer I have to be honest, not just for his ability but also he is a genuinely really nice chap who always has time for a chat with anyone sensible..

            Ian 12/02/16 12:20 PM Reply


          • Ah I havent checked NTF and will do so now! Yep, if mine fail he is the one I want to bounce back, and if they get him right he could well carry a few of these over the line as get impression that when it clicks, it will really click! I think a slower pace and less competitive field are big positives for his jumping/rhythm. They are animals at end of day, maybe he has been in the mental doldrums for some reason which he will snap out of at some point. Be worried if he is asked to make up too much ground around here though, that could spell danger so for your benefit I hope Denis keeps him handy.

            Agree about AK Ian, for some reason, not really sure, always really liked King trained horses. No logic and dont know if a particular horse from my past, but he does know how to train, great to see him having the season he is.

            Josh Wright 12/02/16 1:02 PM Reply


    • I also have a bit on Devil To Pay. Interesting race. Got a bit on Always On The Run at 6’s as well.

      A statistic on our side is that both King and George tend to fire home a profitable amount of Novice Hcp chase winners in at this time of year. I’m not sure exactly what the logic behind that is, perhaps just testament to how quickly these two can get a horse jumping the big obstacles

      Ali 12/02/16 12:12 PM Reply


      • Ali I am a bit of a regular at Warwick and George runs a lot of his hurdlers there, all seem to be big strapping Chasers in the making and more often than not you just look at them and think (wait 18 months and this will be a proper horse” – he doesn’t rush them and I think that’s why he has long cold spells but then decent hot ones too on better ground. Good Luck today

        Ian 12/02/16 12:17 PM Reply


        • Yep, he is a very good trainer of chasers especially and much like V Williams just take their time and dont rush them. Get feeling there are not too many better trainers of handicap chasers than him in the sense that I wouldnt think many improve for leaving him – and its interesting that the ones Roger Brookhouse (is that his name) moved from George to Nicholls that none of them have done much yet. Thats just an observation mind.

          Josh Wright 12/02/16 1:00 PM Reply


  • The nibble is on at 66/1 Josh………..let the fun begin

    Tony 12/02/16 12:08 PM Reply


    • good luck – that’ll be a scoop of Highland-Lodge-proportions for those involved in this blog if that comes in

      Ali 12/02/16 12:34 PM Reply


      • Ha yea, I dont think we are too expectant! it is ‘one of those bets’! Unlike HL where I obviously had an inkling/hope that he COULD run like he did. Not sure if I have the same inkling this time!!!

        Josh Wright 12/02/16 12:57 PM Reply


        • and you were emphatically right not to this time, as it turns out!

          Ali 12/02/16 2:24 PM Reply


          • Ha, that was one of those! Over after the first two fences in truth. 66/1 mind, and given backed him last twice on all weather, I never mind spending some ‘what if’ change at those odds. The paid if he had grabbed 3rd or won would have been unbearable!

            Josh Wright 12/02/16 2:36 PM Reply


  • Had a little nibble on Cappielow Park in the 2:05 as 10’s look a bit big to me, but being more a flat person it will probably unseat rider at the first!

    Mark 12/02/16 1:17 PM Reply


  • Took the 8/1 with bet365 last night on always on the run,now 3/1,ran to fresh for own good last time.Tom and paddy owe me nothing this season so had a bit on a good skin too,hope its one of these 2 he gets home and not gods own(just too short) sitting on value at least

    gerry 12/02/16 1:18 PM Reply


    • Top work that Gerry, a proper value bet, never really looked in too much danger – love how Paddy fires them at the last with the whip, no fear. Thats what Ruby should have done last weekend, and what Richie should have done with Firm Order – make up the horses mind for him. He rode that really well. They are a fearsome team, didnt qualify on my micro due to only 1 run last 90 days, was 4/35 0-1 run, now make that 5, Good Skin could well make 6. Well done.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 2:14 PM Reply


    • well done Jerry mine fell at the last when looking beaten…would have been clear runner up and I lost a bit of shrapnel but hopefully the horse is Ok…

      Ian 12/02/16 2:55 PM Reply


  • Yes paddy is a class act and with right men too in Tom George and Fergal O’ Brien,If cue card is good enough certainly wont be lacking in saddle in gold cup,well one thing I have learned from reading the blog is to look for value

    gerry 12/02/16 3:07 PM Reply


  • Probably a stupid move but last night i backed financial climate as looking at the trainers record in febuary with aspell or garner steering shows a profit, expecting some egg on my face tho lol hopefully one of the horses backed can do the job!

    james.b 12/02/16 3:38 PM Reply


    • Plenty of egg in these parts today James, welcome to the club!!

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 4:19 PM Reply


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