Saturday: Betfair Hurdle Trends/Stats/Shortlist

Well I don’t believe there is a big 3m+ handicap chase to get stuck into and I am quite happy just to watch the Denman Chase. 

So, we are left with a couple of big field handicap hurdles. I will look at the 1.50 Newbury for my Daily Punt Blog. 

For now, the big one of the day…

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Betfair Hurdle

17 renewals since 1997

346 runners, 66 placed horses

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‘WINNING PROFILE?’

(my interpretation from stats below- I have looked at others ‘big ones’ as well, but they dont help much with shortlisting)

  • 11-7 or less on back
  • PLACED on at least one of last two starts
  • 9th or better LTO
  • 0-1 win at 16.5f only
  • Had won at least one hurdle
  • 1st or 2nd one of last three starts

As I write those stats would help cut the field in half. Hopefully all 14 on the ‘shortlist’ don’t show up, to help make my job easier!

The above stats leave the following: War Sound / KalKir/Qewy/Sternrubin (german bred!) Whiteout/Mad Jack Mytton/Forest Bihan/John Constable/Modus/Agrapart/Starchitect/Blazer/Champagne At Tara/Baby King

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TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 14/17 Top 3 LTO
    • 14/179 runners, 51 places…82% winners…52% runners…77% places
    • 10th or worse (completed) : 0/26, 2 places
    • Fell: 0/5, 0 places
    • PU: 0/7,0 places
    • UR: 0/4, 1 place
    • ‘No Run’ (most likely no UK/Irish form): 0/8, 1 place

Horse Age

  • 16/17 Aged 5-7
    • 8+ : 1/69, 17 places…6% winners…20% runners…26% places
      • (places better than what you would expect in terms of number of runners, suggesting maybe not a stat to get too hung up necessarily)

Days Since Run

  • Not much of note
    • 1-7 days: 0/12, 1 place
    • 91-120 days: 0/9, 1 place
    • 121-365: 1/12, 2 places

Horse Weight

  • 11-8+ : 0/31, 4 places

Horse Official Rating

  • OR152+ : 0/11, 1 place

Season Runs

  • 7+ : 0/15, 2 places

Wins (Distance)

  • 2 or more wins at 16.5f: 0/71, 14 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • Run over 22.5f (2m6.5f) or further in career: 0/50, 6 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • Won over 20f (2m4f) or further: 0/36, 7 places

Position In Market

  • Top 3: 9/55, 26 places…53% winners…16% runners…40% places
  • 19th or worse: 0/42, 0 places

Odds

  • 15/17: 20/1 or shorter
    • 22/1-40/1: 1/90, 9 places
    • 50/1+ : 1/57, 2 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 7/109, 22 places
  • IRE: 7/120, 22 places
  • FR: 3/83, 20 places
  • USA: 0/17, 0 places
  • GER: 0/15, 2 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 11-8+ : 0/43, 6 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

  • Clear Top Weight: 0/15, 2 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 31+ : 0/41, 4 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 18+ hurdle runs: 0/35, 4 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0 or 1 handicap hurdle runs: 9/96, 27 places
  • 7+ : 1/77, 14 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 17/17 had placed on at least one of last two starts
    • 0/75, 5 places had not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0: 0/24, 2 places (may include winning foreign form not included in HRB)
  • 1-4 wins: 15/204, 45 places…88% winners…59% runners…68% places
  • 5-7: 2/79, 17 places
  • 8+ : 0/39, 2 places

H-Win (NH Race Type)

  • 0: 0/27, 2 places
  • 5+ : 0/40, 6 places

H-Win (Hncp)

  • 0 and 1: 13/207, 44 places…76% winners…60% runners…67% places
  • 2-4: 4/111, 21 places
  • 5+ : 0/28, 1 place

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 0-1: 15/249, 50 places
  • 2: 2/59, 13 places
  • 3+ : 0/38, 3 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 17/17 had finished 1st or 2nd on at least one of last 3 starts
    • 0/78, 4 places did not (‘those with a run’)

Distance Move

  • Down in trip by 1.5f or more from last run: 1/50, 11 places

Highest Class Run

  • Run in G3 but no higher: 0/29, 5 places
  • 8/161, 30 places had run in a G1 previously

Jockey Claims

  • No Claims: 16/257, 48 places
  • 3lbs: 0/29, 6 places
  • 5lbs: 0/34, 5 places
  • 7lbs: 1/25, 7 places
  • So, claiming jockeys: 1/89, 18 places…6% winners…26% runners…27% places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Chase: 0/16, 1 place

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 3-4: 0/12, 2 places

(LR) Track (of interest)

  • Leopardstown: 4/31, 9 places
  • Chelt: 3/52, 11 places
  • Newbury: 2/25, 6 places
  • Sandown: 1/27, 5 places
  • Kempt: 1/40, 6 places
  • Other one win each: Lingfield/Aintree/Newc/South/Warw/Hunt
  • Ascot: 0/54, 10 places
  • Haydock: 0/20, 3 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • N Henderson: 5/44, 9 places
  • G L Moore: 3/13, 5 places
  • 1 win each: JJ Quin/M P PBrien/Mrs John Harrington/Jonjo O’Neill/NTD/P Nicholls (1/17, 4places)
  • D Pipe: 0/14, 5 places
  • A King: 0/11, 3 places
  • P Hobbs: 0/23, 10 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/8, 1 place
  • W Mullins: 0/11, 0 places

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • just had a look at the final decs…22 declared…Mullins has 5 runners, O’Neill and Hobbs 3 a piece….that’s half the field…I hate these multiple entries from a punting perspective to be honest…..but at least its not like the Flat when O’Brien I am convinced puts some in as mobile chicanes…..chicanery…wot??

    Ian 12/02/16 11:58 AM Reply


    • Ha yes quite, O Brien does like to ensure pace and I dont mind that. Top class horses need a properly run race so that’s up to him. Some of his monster pace setters do seem to hang on and maybe thats an angle worth exploring, OBrien horses in top class races, multiple entries. Will add to the list for a few months time!

      Yep yet to dive into the race, Mullins will be hoping to improve his questionable record to date! Maybe this is the weekend that Jonjjo turns up to the jumping party for 2015/16.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 1:06 PM Reply


      • had an hour just looking at the race in detail and unless I’m totally off beam it does seem a poor renewal, leap of faith to back most of mullins or jjo on form – hobbs has a strong hand and cheltenian been there and done it 2nd/4th last 2 years but not sure it is a weight carrying horse, – a Pipe dark horse interesting but I have a couple I think may improve being Zarib and Affair D Honneur…now watch Mullins grab the first 5 places…LOL!

        Ian 12/02/16 1:37 PM Reply


        • My two pins have landed on Baby King 33s and Mad Jack for Jonjo 20s!

          Josh Wright 12/02/16 2:49 PM Reply


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