Members Report: 11/02/16 (COMPLETE)

 

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 CHELTENHAM FREE REPORT: TRENDS/STATS CORAL CUP + EXTRAS 

 

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 I have posted some trends for the Betfair Hurdle as well as a ‘winning profile’ and a working ‘shortlist’ of 14. I hope over half of those don’t turn up to leave a manageable number! Albeit that decent profile has more than halved the current field of 31. 

Just click the ‘BLOG’ tab at the top and at the moment it is the second post down on the left. 

I will email out a free report for Cheltenham tomorrow. It looks like the main guide will be released on Sunday, all being well. Aware I keep putting it back but I am keen to include as much value as I can. 

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TIPS..

1.15 Donny –

Firm Order – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/BetBright) UR (early) Jumped the first two well,no sure if mis-communication between jockey and horse. Too early to know what would have happened but looked to be travelling well in good rhythm, until that point. Fav hit 9/2 through morning which was a more tempting price but not annoyed I didn’t touch 7/2. Onto tomorrow. 

 Ah yes, backing an 11 year old in a race full of unexposed chasers. Possibly/probably a recipe for disaster but in this value hunting game of ours (IT IS NOT ABOUT WINNERS 🙂 ) I really could not let 8/1 go on this horse – in the context of the opposition as much as anything else. 

Why? 

To put it simply, on paper, he has the best handicap chase form in the race. I have tried to find a reason to ignore that glaring fact and to find a progressive horse to take him on with – but I struggled. 

Let’s look at the positives. He knows how to win and despite his age this is only his 14th handicap chase start, winning 2, placed in a further 2. He is 7lb below his last win when taking account of jockey claims – oh and gets a pro back on for the first time in a while, a jockey who is 2/9, 5 places for the yard in handicap chases in the last 730 days. The trainer is also in form, 2/8, 4 places in last 14 days. Trainer is 1/6, 3 places in handicaps at the track in last 730 days and the horse has ran when here before – so happy to ignore the trainer’s overall record at the track – 3/42 in last 5 years. 

The horse…well yes he is getting on but we know he is handicapped to win. In general he jumps/travels well. Ground and distance are no problem. Two years ago around this time he finished under 4L behind Holywell (a graded beast in his conditions) in a Novice Chase here, having led for most of the way. He has some talent. 1 year ago he finished 6l behind Firebird Flyer (2015/16 Welsh National runner up) at Ludlow, rated OR130 -7lb jockey claim. There was a gap back to the rest. This is also his first run in a C4 in 2 years. There were signs of a revival LTO where he mixed it with two progressive horses a long way from home. Finally, the break is no concern, he is 1/1 in handicap chases returning 61-90 days. 

Look, he may well bump into 2/3/4 more with younger legs who pull away from him. But, he looks sure to run his race and I cannot say that about any other horse in here. Everything points to us getting a run for our money and at 8/1 I can rarely ask for much more. 

The opposition…have so so sooooo much to prove – and for some of them prove it that may. But, the field is littered with horses who have yet to win a chase. The fav is the right fav. Maybe he got bogged down LTO in that ground with 11-12 but his jumping was deliberate again there (those factors may be linked – interesting Venetia Williams comment on The Morning Line about how an extra few pounds here and there,up in weight,can make horses fiddle fences when previously super jumpers-not something I had thought about before) and he was tonked into second. 7/2 feels short enough. He now has something to prove. Longsdon’s horse has a break to overcome 0/3, 0 places all runs 31-60 days, and he has stamina to prove – he breeding in general isnt screaming stayer. They also put blinkers on 1st time. The rest have plenty on their plate and if another wins I will detail why I didnt like them! Under The Phone is the other that caught my eye. He is doing something different, namely the step up in trip. I don’t know if that will suit. With horses doing that, you want them to be finishing off their races over shorter with some gusto, having been outpaced and staying on towards the line. Well I do, in general, in any case. He has been the opposite, dropping back over shorter and just plodding at one pace. I don’t know, the jury is out on him albeit an improved show may be in the offing. He is also 8/1 and I would rather have FO onside. Kim Bailey’s is unexposed but his usually run well after lengthy breaks so that PU is a concern. He also went violently right at his first two fences before his jock moved him to the inside rail at Leicester. He could lose lengths at every fence here. 

So, that’s that. This horse can race where the jockey wants him to. There is a bit of pace in here so should be no excuses. Hopefully he has luck in running and we are at least excited jumping the last couple. A repeat of either of his winning runs in recent years, or even that Ludlow 2nd, would be good enough to take this for me. A younger horse may well pull away from him with more gears but I would need a few pins to try and work out which one it may be! 

Good Luck

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MICRO ANGLES 

Jumps Handicappers

3.30 Donny – Royal Native – (12/1 or under)

4.40 Donny – Bertie Lug (14/1 or under) / Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under)

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(these are not tips and this is a test section with the hope that over time it will find decent priced winners every now and then ensuring a long term profit. Do what you like with the info – in recent weeks ignoring it has been the best policy! 🙂 ) 

1.55 Hunt – One For The Guvnr – 11/1 (general) Tinkler and Hendo are 9/19, 15 places when teaming up in all races at the track and as such this one of is some interest. He is unexposed and should appreciated this step up in trip having hacked up in a couple of maiden/novice races last season before rounding off his campaign in a competitive Aintree handicap. Maybe this is a prep for something and he may not be fit (market the best guide?) but if Hendo wants him fit we know he can get them ready. At the prices he looked interesting, albeit while I havent looked at the others in much depth I did watch the race he Nicholls horse hacked up in and he was rather impressive that day. This rise wont stop him so he is clearly a danger to all. 

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That is all for today

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • Josh. You may remember me from the good old Priceless Art days and as a recent reader of your blog it looks like you’ve been carrying on the form I remember you in at Worcester one day, congrats on your recent results! I see you may be looking into the 1.15, since the Priceless dream faded… I am now involved in the Solstice Son syndicate who is running. Im afraid I can not give you any info on him apart from he has hopefully come back from an annoying injury well and was ready to go in Dec but the weather has been against us. Long time away from the track, 464days, so always unsure how he will return but the form from his last race has worked out well, but a long time ago… Needless to say I will be having my e/w bet on him but won’t hold it against you if he doesn’t come out on top of your list! 🙂 Anyway just to let anyone who doesn’t already know that you certainly put the honest work into your tipping, a very genuine guy and glad to see its going well! All the best and hope to share a pint on a track one day

    James 10/02/16 9:53 PM Reply


    • Ah hello there young man, I believe I remember you! 🙂 Leicestershire farmer, or was it Derbyshire, dairy farm maybe, and your mother trains Point to Pointers on the side?? And well, if that isnt you then apologies, clearly my memory isnt as good as yours. Good to hear from you and thanks for your kind words. Thanks for the words on Solstice, will bear in mind when looking at the race in the morning. Definitely needs to share a pint or three at a race track soon. Drop me an email on info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and we will have to sort something out. Maybe I will try and gate crash the next time you are all in a geegeez syndicate away day! And of course, there is always Aintree, welcome up here anytime! I will get back into the syndicate game at some point hopefully.

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 12:02 AM Reply


  • Just like to note to everyone on here a stat I have found for willie mullins in the following races at the cheltenham festival from 2010-2015
    Vincent obrien county hurdle and martin pipe conditional jockeys hcap hurdle

    All 6 of his winners including 25/1 and 20/1 shots , were either 5yo or 6yos at sp of 25/1 or under,,,,
    Furthermore the 6 winners cam from just 17 qualifiers,,,,,,,with a further 6 placed..
    This is quite astonishing I think

    Whilst mullins and nicholls have dominated this race in the past 10 yrs it is worth keeping an eye on what alan king enters here as in the past 6 yrs he is…
    4 entries
    0 winners but 3 places at 25/1 25/1 20/1….
    I don’t know the decs as yet but looking at the betting , the entries could be winner massagot, cheltanian and montbazon,,,

    Ant 10/02/16 10:03 PM Reply


  • Suffice to say , where I mention mullins nicholls and king in the second part of the post I’m talking about the vincent obrien hcap hurdle not the martin pipe hcap hurdle

    Ant 10/02/16 10:47 PM Reply


  • Couldn’t resist a nibble on both reveley runners at Doncaster tomorrow,son james has remarkably good record at the course in both hurdles and chases there.Midnight Monty is certainly most interesting going straight onto chasing for his seasonal debut after novice hurdle win last march.Now he might get beaten 50 lengths or fall,but at 20/1 don’t have to be right too often

    gerry 10/02/16 11:40 PM Reply


    • Good luck Gerry, He sure does, I did follow ‘team reveley’ in handicaps at the track. They had a great record but a bit of a shocker last year, 1/25, -21 points, still 14/75, 37 places overall, +33 points SP. May well have just been a bad year for the yard not sure. 1/3 so far this season. Belmusette is a qualifier on that angle, clashing with a micro bet above. Will have a closer look at your 20/1 poke – as you say, you dont need to be right too often to do just fine with horses at that price. And, there is something very exciting when backing horses around that price!

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 12:05 AM Reply


      • interesting you mention Belmusette on a few counts , CD winner, a Reveley qualifier and one other angle I like to follow with mares, is to back them in the month they have previously won in, it’s all about female cycles imho! (won’t say any more than that). The other one in the race with CD form of note and still below a mark it has been competitive off – despite a recent hike, is Harry Hunt – so I will be having a little e/w dabble on those two.

        Ian 11/02/16 8:14 AM Reply


  • Indeed Josh,Pipe had an 8/1 winner last week beating experienced but exposed sorts,Ar mad was sent off 16/1 complete outsider twice,now live contender for arkle if moore can get him jumping left handed,especially in small fields when no pace guaranteed,jockeys watching other fancied ones,then there is the idea that an average hurdler will be an average chaser,completely different disciplines.

    gerry 11/02/16 12:48 AM Reply


  • I didn’t see any mention of Pirate’s Treasure on here yesterday – a forgotten angle ‘Green Desert – a dam-sire to follow at Southwell AW? I know it was only a 4 runner affair & only 11/8f but 2nd Daisy Bere should go into notebook for a C5 at least, very close & a fair time they ran but

    talking of dam-sires & 3m+ chasers, anyone done any research into Roselier? Josh?

    Andy Silvers 11/02/16 4:53 AM Reply


    • No i havent looked into 3m+ dam sires actually, but given the races I like attacking I probably should!! Will see what I can find when time allows, not that I am stopping other HorseRaceBase anoraks from having a look 🙂

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 7:30 AM Reply


      • & I just backed Firm Order b4 I came back lol he improved here 2 years ago – is fresh, 7lb clear top rated on my figs etc etc

        Andy Silvers 11/02/16 8:48 AM Reply


        • Well he must be a sure thing now (fetching the Wheelbarrow!) This is a poor bunch of horses in opposition and if he retains any ability he could well be the one!

          Josh Wright 11/02/16 8:52 AM Reply


  • Yes, I had backed Firm Order but I’ve had a saver on Strollawaynow because he could still achieve more and Jamie Moore is a smart booking on top of the ‘pieces.

    Chris 11/02/16 9:09 AM Reply


    • yep. it is that kind of race where if you like a price you could make some sort of case for a few. His jumping has been iffy for me and I am struggling to excuse his poor recent runs. (albeit may have needed penultimate one) But he has won a chase and could be more to come at some stage and you are getting 16s, so you have to overlook the odd thing at that price. Good Luck, albeit not too much with him haha

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 9:15 AM Reply


  • I also like Strollawaynow. Interesting that Jamie goes for this before going down to Huntingdon.

    Steve 11/02/16 9:25 AM Reply


    • Yep he does have a new headgear combo as well which could do the trick! Interesting. Maybe our two will be slugging it out!

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 9:53 AM Reply


  • joined the gang of 47 (should be 50 by now)
    have taken the 8/1 FIRM ORDER (over priced) and had a small E.W. on GROVE SILVER
    who was traveling well when unseating last time.

    graham ashford 11/02/16 10:00 AM Reply


    • Thanks Graham, much appreciated. I think we may well be on 49! Welcome to the gang! Well if firm order wins and Strollawaynow and Grove Silver fill the places most on these pages will be content! GL.

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 10:05 AM Reply


  • I looked closely at the race last night, will be on Willoughby Edge, appreciate what you say about lto but in hindsight caught an handicap tartar who has franked the form quickly turned out since. My concern with Firm Order as with the Longsdon horse and Kings Apollo is that their better runs all seemed to be right handed…Good Luck all!

    Ian 11/02/16 10:06 AM Reply


    • Yep good luck. He was 7/2 across the board when I looked but as he edges towards 5s he would become more tempting and may well tempt me into a saver. Does need to jump better. Yep appreciate better RH, but has won LH (albeit over hurdles) and he ran well here, as well as running well at Fontwell around figure of 8. He doesnt look like he jumps right to me, we shall see… and just about factored into his price. Well, hopefully someone on here will be backing the winner! GL

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 10:19 AM Reply


      • won nicely but cant see him being anything other than a nice midweek horse but always good to see one come back for owners after a 2 year injury lay off…

        Ian 11/02/16 2:36 PM Reply


        • Yep well done. Yes hear hear to that. The way that race finished I would like to think FO would have been thereabouts but you have to jump. Annoying but that’s chases for you. 4/1, 9/2 was a good price in the end. His jumping is a bit iffy at times and as you say its difficult to see him being much better than that. Also of interest is how young Tom Bellamy seems to get a good reaction from some of King’s, this one and Ziga Boy – albeit Hutch may not have ridden them in ideal conditions. Baring FO the right horse won and was followed home by right horses on my analysis so no complaints. Beers on you 🙂

          Josh Wright 11/02/16 2:55 PM Reply


          • will be watching Firm Order next time out for sure…

            Ian 11/02/16 4:01 PM Reply


    • Well done there! Don’t understand your explanation though. I’m not disagreeing of course, just wondering if you can explain again!

      Ali 11/02/16 6:17 PM Reply


  • Hi guys,going off the mark a little here and this is more of a little mini angle than anything,but doing a little research into Irish trained horses running at British tracks lately,and one trainer that comes out quite well is John Feane who is based at the curragh in kildare,his all time stats are showing 6 wins & 4 places from just 17 runners(all tracks) with a P/L of +18.5 points @ isp.He has two over tomorrow at Wolverhampton,in the 8.15 he runs Asian Wing with Daniel Tudhope booked,this is the third time Tudhope will ride the horse where has already bagged a win and a place on him,however he has a fair weight to carry with 9-12 on his back but drops to a class 5 here.His other horse Tom Dooley runs in the 8.15 looks interesting,this is his first run for Feane, and his recent form has plenty of zeros but has dropped to a decent mark,Paul Mulrennan is booked(trainer/jockey combo. showing 6 runs with 2 wins and 1 place),given the trainers record with his “Irish raiders”both worth a second look at least when the races are priced up.

    robbie w 11/02/16 10:15 AM Reply


    • Super stuff. We like ‘going off the mark’ on these here pages. You can keep nuggets like that coming! Cheers. Those stats, and indicator of a clear behaviour/targeting races, enough for me to gp have a nibble I suspect, I may copy your comment into tomorrow’s Stats/Angles of interest! (which may well put the mockers on them, so maybe I wont!)

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 10:22 AM Reply


  • Yup will do josh,if i find any more I’ll post them up.Would prefer stronger pace for Tom Dooley tbh, as his best form to date came when held up and running past slowing pace makers,but hopefully we’ll get a good run for our money off both horses.

    robbie w 11/02/16 11:18 AM Reply


  • https://i.gyazo.com/255a6a453a2e7e9b10ba62e086a2f4c3.png
    440 Donc Bertie Lugg . Notebook may well prove hard to beat but refused to race LTO.

    simon b 11/02/16 11:22 AM Reply


  • Blimey, Honeyball sends out another decent hurdles run.

    His horses seem to run so honestly. Worth backing blindly e/w

    Ali 11/02/16 3:55 PM Reply


    • Well, yep when they run in handicaps but money is usually a good sign, you have to back a lot of losers to find the biggies, all handicap hurdles over 12/1 SP are now 2/30, 6 places, + 17 SP. He has had two decent priced winners,and will have in the future, just very hard to find and for micros I like a certain SR 20%+, 25% ideally. But, that info is there. Betting 1 point on them all to place in the Betfair Place market only wins you 1.12 points, minus commission!

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 4:05 PM Reply


  • I know the odds cap is 12/1 but i’ve been mostly ignoring it with the Honeyball runners so 4th at 25/1 will do nicely thank you very much!!!! I’m looking forward to prince of thieves run shortly and hope he can get a win this time (lto 3rd @ 20/1)

    james.b 11/02/16 4:08 PM Reply


    • Yep, the cap, any cap, is only ever a guide and the stats are there for you to use/interpret/ignore as you please!! Yep, hopefully one of those two micros can go in. We shall see. Long way to go for AJH to return with nothing, albeit he has a full horsebox.

      Josh Wright 11/02/16 4:12 PM Reply


  • I like Always On the Run tomorrow(2.05 Kempton, liked the way he jumped lto, looked the winner til fading, one of T Georges, not sure if it qualifies for your systems Josh, but still worth a look. btw 4.10 Wetherby is gonna be a real headache to sort out!

    James M 11/02/16 6:25 PM Reply


  • Hello Josh,
    Just had a quick look at the Cheltenham free report. I am somebody who lives and breathes The Cheltenham Festival. I very rarely back on the flat so Cheltenham festival constitutes around 50 % of my total outlay on horses. Thats probably not a good idea but the last four festivals have been very kind to me.
    I have bought guides from Nick Pullen in 2013 and 2014. I bought a guide from Gavin priestly in 2014 and last year i bought Weatherbys guide. As you can see the festival is well catered for as regards guides.Matt Bisogno and Postracing also fill you up with stats if you want them.
    With that in mind i have to decide if i will add yours to my growing number. Nick Pullen is about to release something new soon as well. The danger is you have so many stats that they begin to contradict each other. The amount of work that goes into them can only be applauded but theres a hell of a lot of competition.

    Roddo 11/02/16 6:53 PM Reply


    • Hi Roddo seriously, you know what you like and if Chelts is that big for you then you are in the best place to judge. I won’t be offended if you don’t want my version and you are right about too many stats. Of course, if you are on one of the donations club options you will get it for free! If you have a source of info that works for you, stick with that. First and foremost I have researched my guide for my own purposes, but also conscious others may wish to use the stats.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 12:14 AM Reply


  • Hello Josh,
    Thanks for the reply. I subscribe to Narrowing The Field and Geegeez gold membership. I use the gold membership because i believe it is the best way of form study available and Narrowing the Field gives you a stats and doseage slant.Both these enable me to make my own informative decision. I dip my toe into your blog and if you gave me something that was the reason i had made a profit then i would send a donation. I have used a subscription service of yours in the past but i felt it wasnt the way forward. To use racing terms since then you have found a specialism that appears to suit you and you have become a ‘Big Improver’.
    At the moment i dont feel i could take up a weekly or monthly option as i am reasonably happy with how i achieve my own selections. Racings a complex game and this could change in the near future.

    Roddo 12/02/16 8:09 AM Reply


    • Yep that was a big tongue in cheek Roddo, tone so hard with words! You wont go far wrong with those two in truth! Albeit I hope the next time I back a 20/1 winner in a race you may not have looked at etc that you have a few shillings on! I value your readership and the value you bring to others via your comments etc when you do dip in.

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 8:31 AM Reply


  • Hello josh,
    I can assure you no tongue in cheek or hard tones with words. Just truth and honesty. I will continue to dip my toe and read an opinion i value. If that leads me to something i havent thought of and i profit from it you will gain by it. Have a word with Matt Bisogno if you think thats not true and i am sure he will say yes hes critical and hard but very fair and honest.Ive followed Matt since his first ramblings.Its the main reason i followed you as you are one of his disciples carrying on his great work.

    Roddo 12/02/16 8:54 AM Reply


    • Sorry, I meant my words haha, specifically my reference to the monthly donation bit! Not what you said!! I really am useless at explaining myself sometimes – ie, my donations/free report nibble was cheeky!

      Josh Wright 12/02/16 11:00 AM Reply


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