Members Report: 08/02/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

1.30 Muss – Proud Gamble – 1 point win – 9/1 (BetF/BV/PP/SJ/WH) 2nd 

A very poor race indeed and not the kind to get involved with too often but I just cant resist a nibble on this horse at this price. Indeed he drifted like a barge last time so may be a horse that needs to live up to his name. We shall see if the money comes. 

In a race full of inconsistent animals, those that don’t win very often and that are out of form, I have gone with a very unexposed chaser here who has caught my eye a couple of times. Well, the first time he raced over fences I had a look at that race and noted him – just because he was in the ‘could be anything’ bracket of chasers, having never raced in one before. He was keen that day after a break and fell early. He raced prominently that day. The last race I also kept an eye on him. I dont think I tipped him as such,(cant remember) but was very interested. He drifted a lot that day and the writing was on the wall before the tapes went up. He was held up out the back and never given a hard time. No issues with that at all. Being a young horse they have every right, after a fall, to teach him to race/jump properly and do it in their own time. The alternative? Well they push him too hard, gun him at his fences,  he falls, he dies. That is the worst case. I don’t think it quite qualified as a ‘public schooling’ session, but to my eye he generally traveled well and came home in his own time. Now, he may simply not be very good.

But, all of his form before his last two chases should just be ignored. And, given how early he fell first time up, the last run could be seen as his first of the season. All the fizz should be gone now, and he should be spot on fitness wise – if they indeed left anything to work on first time up. His trainer is 2/13, 5 places with handicap chasers here in the last two years. He has also been dropped 8lbs from that run and only has 10-4 on his back. At some point, at some level, he is going to make his handicap mark look silly I suspect. Today could well be that day, if he jumps etc. There are no natural front runners in here and I hope they may revert to more prominent tactics, which is the place to be at this track. 

I won’t spend much time discussing the rest, there isnt too much point. They all have bits and pieces of form, although for some you have to cast your eye back a long way. They can all run a good race, they can all run shockers. ‘profiles’ of C5 chasers are never too trust worthy. AS I write Solway Bay is now a non runner, and he was the only really in form horse in the race. It says something that More Madness is 3/1 fav, a horse that is 0/18, 7 places in handicap chases, who finished 15l behind his nearest rival LTO, when that could have been 30L if the winner was not heavily eased in the final furlong. Vision De La Vie is unexposed and would have a chance, taking a drop in class. WON But, happy to leave him on price alone given his at times iffy profile also. 

So, I dont go into this one overly confident, but I think we could have some fun at that price. And, if he goes in, he will likely pay for the rest of the week! 🙂 

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That is all betting wise today. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainers

2.30 Muss – Mumgos Debut (any) 2nd 7/2

3.30 Muss – Jonny Delta (14/<)  2nd 8/1>9/2/ Rioja Day (14/<) UP 12/1

3.50 Fakenham – On The Case (12/1<1) UP 10/3> 11/4

Jumps Handicaps 

2.50 Fakenham – Celtic Intrigue (14/1<) UP 9/2 

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20 Comments

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  • There s a henry brooke/McCain chaser in the 2.30 at Musselburgh court of law.Dont have the word for opposite of prolific but this bunch of horses would be a good definition.Three of them met few weeks back,i backed court of law(fell early) and ascension,leading until blundering at last handing advantage to Harleys max,might have small interest again

    gerry 07/02/16 9:22 PM Reply


    • Hi gerry, just researching the McCain Brooke partnership now – the first micro I have – those two in C4 handicap chases, any odds (14/1< a guide) - Court Of Law is a qualifier for that - 12/44, 16 places. +32 SP, AE 1.45. - 8 different horses to date. Will write it up in weekly diary.

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 10:45 AM Reply


  • Josh it is an interesting race, I’ve been laid up with a migraine for 2 days so a puzzle to help soothe the pain – NOT LOL…but I keep coming back to another horse in the field which is Tears From Heaven, the form of the Grant horses does not put me off in so much as the horse seems to be a bit of a Course and Distance specialist, usually needs at least 2 runs to get fit and is off a low weight and a nice mark….I do feel the winner is likely to come from low in the weights, so yours or mice would be good and I also had a close look at Apache Pilot but prefer to other 2 mentioned. Good Luck

    Ian 08/02/16 9:17 AM Reply


    • Hi Ian…yep I did look him also – and was one of those I spent a bit more time on – a monster price also and money is coming. I cant put you off backing him. Grant is 4/12, 5 places with his handicap chasers here in last 730 days also. I just thought the last 5 runs have been really really poor, but maybe you can excuse the last couple. Well, at that price you can excuse a lot!! He is unexposed enough also, 2/14. Ah. He is probably worth a punt in truth – I think I am going to have to throw some shillings at him – Ground was also a concern, best form on Good. But again, he is 33s! Good Luck – I hope for tipping purposes he doesnt romp in mind! 🙂 – oh yea and the horse is 2/6, 4 places in chases at the track. hmmmm…..

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 9:27 AM Reply


      • if he wins I’ll have to factor in “having a migraine” as a positive trend!

        Ian 08/02/16 9:39 AM Reply


        • Ah indeed, well I hope that goes soon. but in future it may be a sign you are about to pick out a monster!

          Josh Wright 08/02/16 9:41 AM Reply


  • Had a few quid on Proud Gamble last night,but what a terrible race,the one I would be worried about is Resolute Reformer last two runs have been bad but at least he is only 7yo and has won a couple of races.but its Proud Gamble for me.Cheers BoB.

    BoB 08/02/16 9:48 AM Reply


    • Yep – feels like a bit of a pin job race in truth, but the way he was ridden/ran last time makes sense, the ‘story’ of his form looks interesting given the fall etc, and he will come good at some point I think. We shall see! Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • Good run, good selection at the price…can’t win ’em all
    Paul

    Paul 08/02/16 1:38 PM Reply


    • Yep, happy enough with that, the right horse won if he was going to get beat, analysis was fine, and we were entertained at a price. For a fleeting moment up home straight i was getting excited but Reveley had a bit up his sleeve and ours may well have just been bogged down near the end. Suspect he will come back there on better ground in a C5 chase, another weak one like that and he would go close again – wont be 9/1 though I doubt!

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 1:54 PM Reply


  • Ran quit well,i had him ew so made small profit.BoB

    BoB 08/02/16 1:44 PM Reply


    • Yep no complaints there, slightly better ground and we may have had more to cheer – or winner was just a bit more streetwise, more quality. He will be winning moderate chases, getting better with every run.

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 1:55 PM Reply


  • yours did far better than mine Josh, well done, I do feel Reveley is still an under-estimated jockey as he does not ride a huge number – Pauline Robson always worth a second look too.

    Ian 08/02/16 2:13 PM Reply


    • Yep – felt like he was the main danger – did I back the 20/1 forecast, no. At 4s this morning, worth a saver, maybe, didnt do that either. He is underrated and was a qualifier on a micro angle of mine for Reveley, have shared it before, will dig it out again – he is dynamite over 3m+ trips in chases, just brilliant. Such a clock in his head, learning plenty about pace in france I suspect. Happy that I went with the right one at the odds etc, it was a good bet.
      Yep, well most 33/1 shots run like that, you dont need to find many over time to do just fine, just have to make sure you cheer them loudly when you find them! On paper, plenty of reasons why he was a decent ‘gamble’ at the odds, and that is the kind of thinking you need to find those ones!

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 2:17 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Backed it ew so another profitable day since that was my only bet, Thanks.

    Tony Brannan 08/02/16 2:19 PM Reply


    • Sounds like I missed a trick haha. Well done. Ran a fine race, always happy when a decent priced horse is thereabouts over the last.

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 2:22 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Good pick, I saved on Vision De La Vie, James Reveley in a 3m chase. Can’t remeber who put me onto that angle!!!!!!!

    Hugh 08/02/16 2:45 PM Reply


    • haha quite, wish I had thrown a 1/2 aver at him given views above + that micro angle! Yea, who was that!!?? I will have to dig it out again, throw it in tomorrow’s post again. Glad you had a piece and I always enjoy it when you readers use my views/research and come out of a race with more profit than me! 🙂

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 2:48 PM Reply


  • Interesting how well backed that Goldie horse was in the 3.30. And it did travel nicely to be fairm so perhaps this is all pointing towards another fighting fit february for the Goldie stable

    Only had a 1/2 on it, since it had a massive reversal of form to pull off from the eventual winner (they met in their previous race), so 1/2 point saved i guess!!!

    Ali 08/02/16 3:42 PM Reply


    • Yep, he has just bumped into one there. I was excited for a time but the winner had more than 1 stone in hand it would appear! Maybe 2! The micros as a group were due a dip, but that is the nature of that approach. Yep, hopefully that may be a good sign that Goldie can find us a winner or two.

      Josh Wright 08/02/16 3:58 PM Reply


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