Members Report: 02/02/16 (COMPLETE)

Some tidying up/notes…

just a quick work in a few horses that have appeared on these pages in the last few days, either on blog or in comments when speaking to some of you…Folsom Blue, who we backed at Gowran where he ran no sort of race ran 3rd at Punchestown on Sunday. I had a nibble at him there but didn’t realise he was such a poor jumper. He must have lost 3-4 lengths at every fence, not to mention the energy he then had to use to get his position back. If he could learn to jump he would be some stayer, but that is a big if at the moment. I don’t know how he finished 3rd really, some effort all things considered. He is in the notebook for the Irish National, which must be the target but will need to jump much better to be winning at the top table. But, he stays all day. 

Top Wood ran at Sedgefield and is clearly more of a monkey that I had put him down for. He isn’t a plot horse I don’t think. Just an inconsistent one who could win decent races if he put his mind to it. One to be wary of. I made what I thought were valid excuses after his Taunton run (going too quickly etc) but in fairness one of you, Ian ‘Roddo’ I think from memory, came to a different conclusion – which the Sedgefield run would back up. 

Finally, West of The Edge, won well at Plumpton yesterday at 16/1. Bollocks. For want of a better word. I had a nibble but take no satisfaction from tipping a horse on their penultimate start, highlighting that they should be kept onside, and then failing to either tip them or mention them next time out. So, sorry about that. I know at least one of you tracked him yourself and had a nibble. It was a hurdle race but stamina/ground were never going to be a problem and I had said his last run should just be ignored. One that got away. 

Some points of interest that have entered my thinking…after the big winner in Ireland the other day at Gowran the trainer gave some reasoning for the winner’s running style that I had not considered. Early in his chasing career he had taken a very heavy fall. Ever since then he hated being surrounded by horses, hence why they always tried to bounce him out in front, or at least with plenty of daylight around him. When he couldnt get away on the front end and/or was surrounded by horses from the start, he doesn’t like it and doesn’t run well. I find that kind of thing fascinating. Likewise with West of The Edge – his trainer said he is quite a small horse who can be intimated by big fences and will progressively go slower – hence why sending him over hurdles is no bad thing, freshens him up mentally and gets him going quicker, attacking his jumps. Anyway, I find that kind of insight interesting/useful for future reference. 

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JANUARY REVIEW BLOG POST IS HERE>>>

(this post includes links to spreadsheet/PDF of Tips for your records) 

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TIP

4.15 Taunton

Sonny The One – 1.5 points winWON 4/1 (recorded at that price,was available with two mainstream bookies all of last evening,and with Bet365 for a couple of hours this morning) 

Tour Des Champs – 1 point win – 6/1 UP (poor run,despite poor trainer record,one to be wary of – maybe best caught fresh, look out for him during Twister Season, Oct/Nov maybe!)

*prices available as of 18.41 – 01/02/16

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Well the first tips of February and while they are not going to make us mega rich I think they are both overpriced and should give us a good run for our money. 

Sonny The One – comes here for the inform Colin Tizzard and the brilliant Brendan Powell Jnr (biased clearly having given Ziga Boy a wonderful ride – but he is underrated). This horse is unexposed and is 0/10, 5 places to date – I think it is only a matter of time. His run last time was his first over this kind of trip and he ran a cracker. He was beaten here by Walforf Salad who ran a blinder in a C2 at Cheltenham on Saturday, putting lengths back to the 3rd. Likewise STO was 22L ahead of the third that day. He is fit, in form, handles the ground/track and the trainer is in form. He is young and progressive. In that context, I thought 4s / 7/2 was generous and I think he should be shorter based on that potential. Of course, he does need to get his head in front. He also has a light weight which could help in this ground. 

Tour Des Champs – This is about whether to put a line through the Welsh National run where I tipped him. He has now pulled up in that race the last twice. It is possible he bounced LTO and/or hated the extreme going. He was never really travelling and made scrappy errors. But, he has class, and the visor may spark him up. A repeat of his penultimate run would see him out-run his 11/2 odds for me. The concern is more the trainer- his generally dont run well here for some reason – 3/48 in last 5 years. 0/6, 1 place in handicap chases here in last 2 years. But, everything else is in his favour and I would hope to see a better run returned to this level. 

The opposition…

I think Whywoods Brook makes the market here and if he wins then fair enough, but I think he is short enough. The race rather set up for him LTO (they went very hard) and while clearly in form I think the two above look more interesting. I think if those two run their race they will beat him, but he does look the safest option – hence his position in the market. You do know what you are going to get – although he can clout a fence as well. Cork Citizen would be a danger if money arrives from his canny yard. They are 3/15 in last two weeks and he is very much an unknown quality. The break would concern me, esp at the odds, and I am happy to leave him. Nicholls is 1/25 in the last 2 weeks and they are still struggling to get any consistency, albeit 40% have placed. Regardless, the horse has a few too many questions to answer for me and while unexposed in this sphere is another I am happy to watch. Ballyoliver is just out of form and has yet to run any kind of race on heavy. 

Good Luck 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainers 

4.45 Taunt – Milestone (10/1<) DNQ (at no point came into range, 25/1 SP)

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That is all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

47 Comments

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  • Evening Josh,

    I have the same feeling about Tour Des Champs tomorrow as I did about As De Fer last week (wish I had more than just a small bet but hindsight is wonderful) in that they were both fancied in much tougher races before running badly but assuming no ill effects really should be too good for these. Any thoughts?

    Nick Mazur 01/02/16 6:14 PM Reply


    • Evening Nick…blimey, am a bit open mouthed at his price of 11/2! Yes – if he repeats that first Chepstow run, that is far too good for this lot. That race WB won last time out was not very strong at all and I dont think I would be wanting to touch 5/2. With TDC – there is a chance that he bounced after that really long lay off – NTD has a 25% SR with those that PU LTO and were sent off at 11/2 or shorter – since 2003. – albeit he is only 4/32 with such runners in last 3 calandar years. Also, that ground was extreme and he may have hated it, combined with possibly going a pace that took him out of his comfort zone. 11/2 seems generous and I can see why you would be interested…I will have a closer look and he may well end up as the first tip of Feb if that price holds.

      Josh Wright 01/02/16 6:28 PM Reply


      • Great, glad you’re in agreement. Thats an interesting stat about NTD. If anything the price is drifting which is amazing since I agree with you on WB. I guess I can see the argument on the 2nd fav given the winner franked the form but would still prefer to be on TDC even if they had the same odds.

        Nick Mazur 01/02/16 6:51 PM Reply


        • As you can see above, having had a look through, I like him, but I like one other a little bit more!

          Josh Wright 01/02/16 6:58 PM Reply


          • Yeah I posted that before seeing your tips

            Nick Mazur 01/02/16 7:02 PM Reply


  • Tour Des Champs not a best jockey

    Pab 01/02/16 7:16 PM Reply


    • what makes you say that? no problems on the jockey front for me. 13/107, 37 places on all chasers priced 8/1 or under – not sure if that is in line with expectations but solid enough. He wont be the reason he doesnt win for me. He is still making his name as well, still learning.

      Josh Wright 01/02/16 7:20 PM Reply


  • Tour Des Champs also has an entry for Saturday.

    Steve 01/02/16 8:29 PM Reply


  • Are you going to try a forecast this time Josh?

    jon 01/02/16 10:19 PM Reply


    • Hmm good question…I have just put 0.25 point reverse on, so 1/2 total for fun! I will track how well I do when I fancy two in a race, albeit you dont need many like Saturday’s at 90/1 to go in over time to be doing ok! (had nothing on that one though!)

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 7:22 AM Reply


  • Tour Des Champs with that price is great,just one thing,his weight
    i really like Sonny The One,why so short price

    Pab 01/02/16 11:01 PM Reply


  • I am going to try Heath Hunter 15:45 Taunton10/1 Pipe horse

    Pab 01/02/16 11:03 PM Reply


  • 200S Topaling has first fibresand run but bred to like it and in the right grade. 20/1 under estimates its chance despite well contested race, and this is its easiest race at 14f since three wins at the distance.
    230S Golden Spun had a fitness run lto and now reverts to 6f, the distance of its two wins. Also bred for the surface. 18/1
    400S Colour My World took my eye with Joe Fanning up; the horse burst a blood vessel lto but should appreciate the track and was an easy winner on soft,making the pace in’14, so the booking is significant 20/1.
    I couldn’t resist a little roll up ending on Tour des Champs to have a dash at a small fortune. Well, it’s better odds than the lottery.

    Chris 02/02/16 7:55 AM Reply


  • I think Tour Des Champs just jumped poorly last time in the Welsh national from as early as the first fence. Put him on the back foot and on heavy ground in a big field that was the end of it. I’d forgive the run and yes I like him at the prices today too.

    Not so sure about the Colin Tizzard horse though. Yes, he produced a career-best last time, Waldorf Salad has boosted the form since and he is unexposed. However, he was wearing first time cheekpieces last time and they are not on today. Why is that?

    Matt 02/02/16 10:09 AM Reply


    • No idea about the headgear and trying to second guess is tricky. Nothing before that would suggest that he was difficult, and every run before his last was arguably over an inadequate trip. Not really sure why they tried it but maybe they think they are not needed. Brendan has rode him on his last few starts and removing them was probably his call. We shall see! strange one but it wouldnt concern me much.

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 10:24 AM Reply


  • The 2 swinbank horses northside prince 2pm and deep resolve 4pm have been well supported from 7-9/2 and 6-11/4.Think I have been backing these 2 all winter,one might oblige today

    gerry 02/02/16 11:10 AM Reply


  • Old news now, but a familiar face West of the Edge won the stayers hurdle yesterday at Plumpton

    Pleased to say I had a sneaky half point on it given that 16/1 was a crazy price given the form of its 2nd to last run

    This leads to the question: what was up with him in Lackamon’s race where you tipped him, Josh?

    I know this is all retrospective, but it could help us pick some overpriced PU LTO winners in the future

    Ali 02/02/16 1:29 PM Reply


    • ah, just realised this is already a focus point on the blog! Great minds, eh?!

      Any further thoughts appreciated

      Ali 02/02/16 1:32 PM Reply


      • first things first they are animals, not machines and not robots. I know that is stating the obvious but sometimes there simply is no explanation. They may have woken up and though, nah, not today. They may not have enjoyed the journey to the track etc etc. With West of The Edge – after his win yesterday his trainer said, like me, that he just was never happy, never travelling, line through it. His reason was that he jumped off a bit detached and from then wasnt really interested. Maybe he needed to be around ‘his mates’ nearer the front, and sulked. A couple of bad errors and that was that. He is also a small horse and said the fences may have phased him, hence why I think he may mix hurdles and chases from now on – to stop him thinking about the bigger obstacles too much – Market Raisen’s fences are not the stiffest I believe. The cheekpieces helped and he was clearly still in form. A tip that got away! (would not have tipped in that race ‘cold’ but given he was in the tracker, a sense of regret!)

        Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:44 PM Reply


  • There is even old method to bet on PU horses,i had nice wins thanks that,but sometimes on second run after PU
    maybe all is about money

    Pab 02/02/16 2:59 PM Reply


  • But ii think horse is a living being,has his better and worse days,has his biorythm,good coach is staying close with horse,he has to know

    Pab 02/02/16 4:06 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh one again !!!

    Kevin 02/02/16 4:24 PM Reply


  • Sonny one so true, I love you!

    Chris 02/02/16 4:24 PM Reply


  • oh josh.you defo the man keep her lit

    paddy kearney 02/02/16 4:24 PM Reply


  • Josh

    You did it again, Sonny the One. 4.7 on the exchanges. Close thing in the end but still a winner.

    Well done again.

    Mike Dennis 02/02/16 4:29 PM Reply


    • Cheers. Yep, prefer them a bit more comfortable than that but gets the heart racing near the end! Good entertainment.

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:56 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh,i had a decent bet on Sonny the One left Tour Des Champs alone today didn’t fancy him.BoB

    BoB 02/02/16 4:30 PM Reply


    • Good stuff…perfect example of interpreting my ramblings as you see fit and using your own opinion etc. Glad it came off for you today!

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:46 PM Reply


  • Light weighted,i had yet another win on light weighted horse
    nice run on Pipe horse Cork Citizen

    Pab 02/02/16 4:37 PM Reply


    • Yea he ran well, much better than market expected him, having more than doubled in price come off. One to keep an eye on, clearly has ability. Ballyoliver returned to some form (ran better than I expected) and despite his age is a solid enough yardstick

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:55 PM Reply


  • Great analysis again Josh

    For me the horse had a lot left but was looking around over the last 2 to 3 fences
    Maybe they will try the cheekpieces again next time….If so under similiar conditions I can see him going in again

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve 02/02/16 4:39 PM Reply


    • Thanks Steve. He is just a big baby I think,mentally immature. That win may help and he should learn plenty. I would keep headgear off next time to see if he can come on unaided but we shall see. Out in front for a long way also in tacky ground. Jumping could sharpen up also,would be worried over stiffer fences. Win is a win and 4s was too big in the end.

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 4:53 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh. I took a chance and backed Sonny on its own, since I couldn’t have Tour with those awful trainer stats.

    Thanks.

    Tony Brannan 02/02/16 4:55 PM Reply


    • Well done..good example of interpreting my ramblings, that’s why I like to pack them with thoughts/info so you can make wiser decisions than me every now and then! 🙂

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:51 PM Reply


  • Fantastic Tipping Josh – Favourite gambled on and ran stinker – Horse made a couple of mistakes and was wanting the line to come as we all did but another small booooom! and a 5 point profit
    You are a star!!’
    Keep em comin!!!!

    Joe 02/02/16 4:56 PM Reply


    • Very small boom for a 4/1 shot! 🙂 Nice way to start the week, will try and keep them comin!

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:54 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. It shows that specialising as you do in certain race types pays off. Bring on more 3+ mile handicap chases !

    Andy 02/02/16 5:40 PM Reply


    • Indeed! That focus helps with my discipline – have since stopped frittering away ‘fun’ bets on rubbish (which I had a tendency to do at times last year!) and the bank is looking much more healthy. I love them, like a pig in muck! If I can bring same focus/success to the flat via profiles/sprint handicaps, we will be doing well!

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 5:53 PM Reply


  • Top class again Josh…will have to up my stakes. Thanks,
    Paul

    Paul 02/02/16 5:56 PM Reply


    • Thanks Paul. Will leave staking up to you! 🙂 50-80 points should always cover my worst moments, albeit 30 points has never once come under threat I don’t believe in last 12-18 months, regardless of when you would have started following ‘tips’. Never say never mind.

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 6:03 PM Reply


  • Good man Josh,

    Managed to double up with Gallic Warrior 🙂 Happy days!

    Johnny

    John Macaskill 02/02/16 6:12 PM Reply


    • Cheers…oohhh that is a nice little double to brighten up a drab Tuesday, well done, super stuff!

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 6:19 PM Reply


  • Another good day josh,top man well played.

    robbie w 02/02/16 7:09 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh. Just a quick word on Top Wood I watched the race on Sunday and maybe he sulked because he was’nt allowed to set the pace, what do you think.

    Edward 02/02/16 7:38 PM Reply


    • Yep,possibly, but I am sure he has ran well when not leading…but being out the back is a bit different. Maybe a bit like West of The Edge who did the same at Catt. So,maybe I shouldn’t write him off too quickly, that may be a valid excuse.

      Josh Wright 02/02/16 7:42 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your reply Josh. I won’t give up on him just yet.

    Edward 02/02/16 7:49 PM Reply


  • Just had a chance to watch the replay from Taunton – great stuff with Sony Josh. Thank you

    Steve 02/02/16 8:46 PM Reply


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