Members Report: 30/01/16 (COMPLETE)

Big Race Preview 

3.15 Doncaster  

Ziga Boy – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (general) WON + 12 points 

Coologue – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general) 2nd -1.5 points

Gullinbursti – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP -1 point 

After I posted the price drifted to 9-11/1 and was there for some time. Hopefully some of you got a bigger price but I got 8s and that is what it will go down as. +9.5 points to add to the pot. +8.5 points on TIPS this week, I think that takes them to +88.5 points for the month but need to check! Super race. 

***

Why? 

It is unusual for me to go for three in one race but I couldn’t decide which one to leave out and given the month we have had on the blog I thought why not back all of them! 

The ‘obvious’ trends don’t really help too much in this race but a few of them point to this race going to the unexposed types. Those with 20 or more chase runs have a poor record, as do those with 9 or more places in chase races. All winners of this race had 0-4 chase wins to their name. 

Using those three as a ‘winning profile’ would leave: Buywise / Le Mecurey / Coologue / Gullinbursti / Ziga Boy / Distime 

Ziga Boy – won impressively LTO returning to what looks to be his favoured better ground and we backed in him that day. Visually that win looked too good to be true and he has gone up 15lbs from that, and is also racing from 1lb out the handicap. But, he is lightly raced and hasn’t had many tried on a sound surface. He could be improving rapidly and if that is the case the 15lb rise doesn’t bother me. He will race prominently and he jumped so well the last day that I would be disappointed if he wasnt in the mix turning for home.

Coologue – is unexposed and ran well enough last time where the ground may not have suited. I suspect he has been saved for the better ground and this looks like it may have been the target. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and, depending on what Aachen does, could try and lead these all the way. On the face of it the trainer’s record at the track is poor, but with handicap chasers in the last 730 days he is 1/10, 4 places.

Gullinbursti – runs for a trainer who is very hard to catch right but who does have an excellent record here. There are plenty of questions to answer but given his ‘trends profile’ I had to have a nibble at 14/1. It is that Kelso run which catches my eye and a repeat of that may see him thereabouts. He has a lot less weight on his back here and has come down the handicap. The jockey also knows him. Despite his age he is still unexposed and if he retains any ability should give us a run for our money.   

Of the rest – well Distime is interesting at a monster price and while I dont think he has the class to win this, I would not be shocked if he ran on into 4th say. That may be worth a closer look on the betfair place market for fun. Le Mercurey has a favourites chance but does have stamina to prove and on paper he is not the most stoutly bred. That is a big question for me as well as the fact that the yard is still hot and cold. I don’t think I would want to be lumping on – happy for him to prove me wrong. Buywise is Buywise. He will win one of these races one day, and his followers will no doubt get some of their losses back! If he jumps well he would have a chance. He does have stamina to prove also but could run a big race. The rest have a few questions to answer for me but you could make some sort of case for most in here, in what feels an open race. 

Hopefully our three are in there pitching turning for home. 

Good Luck 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

12.30 Donc – City Supreme (12/1<) 4th  12/1 / Tekthelot (12/1<) UP

Jan Trainers

1.30 Donc – Sir Valentino (12/1< – guide,as with all prices,14/1 winner earlier in week) UP

2.25 Chelt – Champagne West (11/1<) PU

4.10 Chelt – Prairie Town (14/1<) 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

2.25 Chelt – Tenor Nivernais– 2nd was an ‘eye catcher’ on his last couple of starts running really well at the track behind the progressive Village Vic. His form ties in with Champagne West and I am not sure he should be over twice the price. There is also a lack of front runners in here and it would not surprise me if Aidan Coleman tried to dictate from the front. As always with these angles I haven’t looked in depth at the other runners!

I should add that Double Ross was an eye-catcher from previous weeks from his run at Ascot. He goes in the main race above. He doesn’t have the ‘winning profile’ of previous winners and I still cant work out if he actually stays 3m or not. He isnt carrying any of my money today. 

***

That is all for today. Good Luck with your wagers. 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

28 Comments

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  • Unusual that all 3 horses have drifted from your quoted prices

    That’s not a problem for me, prefer a good winner to drift a little bit….

    now 9/1 out to 16/1 that would be nice and surprising

    norman 12 months ago Reply


    • Yep, it never bothers me too much, esp in a ‘big race’ with plenty of liquidity etc. Will be interesting what the market does up until race time, I suspect they will go off around the morning prices but you never know!

      Josh Wright 12 months ago Reply


  • Welcome back hope you had a good time
    You even managed a micro winner yesterday @ 6/1 great work

    Richard 12 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Richard…I am still away for one more day but 5 days of skiing is enough for me and I fancy a quiet one before flying back tomorrow. Yep, a needed micro winner, keeps them ticking along- think they may be -3 for the week but still doing well overall.

      Josh Wright 12 months ago Reply


  • Ziga Boy has gone up 15lb for beating old timer Godsmejudge and other plodders.He was visually impressive that day and the better ground helps him.I just feel he has had a lot of chances to win off lower ratings than this and he found an easy race last time. I think he could find it difficult today. Gullinbursti is 0/11 left handed and 0/13 at class2+_ level.No doubt he is well handicapped but conditions do not look right. Coologue is my fancy for the race.I expect a big run from an unexposed animal whose stable are hitting form.
    Lots of others have chances especially Dolatulo and Pass The hat. I also think Le Mercurey will improve for the step up in distance. Holywells time of year is coming Feb- April and if his stable was in any sort of form you could say he had a chance,but no winner in January tempers enthusiasm. Its minimum stakes for me or a watching brief. Now the ground has gone heavy at Cheltenham with fences removed its a watching brief there to. Good luck if you are playing.

    Roddo 12 months ago Reply


  • Thanks for your time mate.

    Good luck, regards from Spain.

    Miguel García 12 months ago Reply


    • guys
      the pub I go in on a sat we pay 1 pound and pick a horse the first one to 50 points gets the pot well I have 49 points so who can point me to a short priced sure thing many thanks

      peter higgins 12 months ago Reply


  • Miguel García where in spain do you live as I live in spain

    peter higgins 12 months ago Reply


    • I live in Almería! And you?

      Miguel Garcia 12 months ago Reply


  • GOOD MAN….thank you

    norman 12 months ago Reply


  • You’ve only gone and done it again mate. Was that exciting, or was that exciting. Many congrats again Josh. If there’s a better tipster out there i haven’t met him!

    Allan 12 months ago Reply


  • Well done once again Josh. Top Man !!!

    Andy 12 months ago Reply


  • Now you are going for forecasts as well !!! brilliant work, what a good run from the horse it was a pleasure to watch.

    Richard 12 months ago Reply


  • Fantastic, mate. Thought we had a chance with the tricast to half way, have to be satisfied with the forecast haha (only 60p). Cheers Josh,
    Paul

    Paul 12 months ago Reply


  • Another good day josh,well played.

    robbie w 12 months ago Reply


  • Bloody hell Josh ! You’ve done it again . That’s 3 Saturday’s in a row . Unlike other tipsters you always give tips at decent odds .
    Picking out winners whilst on the piste ! Genius

    Ian 12 months ago Reply


  • Great tipping yet again Josh.This time though i followed you in and had the exacta which paid £91,20. as well as each way bets on Coologue,Gullinbursti and Ziga Boy. Kings had four winners a;ready.
    Top man Josh

    Roddo 12 months ago Reply


  • Cheers All, yes that was rather enjoyable to watch! My betting is still a bit one dimensional and sadly I had 0 on the forecast/exacta – well done to those of you who had a nibble at that bet! A perfect example of why I don’t pay too much attention to rises in weight when a horse is progressive and hasnt had many tries in ideal conditions.

    Josh Wright 12 months ago Reply


  • I’m happy to say thank you again Josh. And the forecast too. A good day

    Barry 12 months ago Reply


  • JOSH THE MAGICIAN!! Thanks!!

    Miguel Garcia 12 months ago Reply


  • Josh does it again got 10/1 thank you

    Richard 12 months ago Reply


  • magic again josh! well done!

    malcolm pendrey 12 months ago Reply


  • Great work again Josh ….don’t know what the French for multitasking is, but that’s some tipping, looking at your lap top while whizzing down the slope.

    Many thanks,

    Steve

    Steve 12 months ago Reply


  • Very good.
    You’re starting to convince me.

    Eric 12 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Hope you enjoyed your well earned break. I have been away for 3 days in Chantaburi in Thailand. Made sure I got back for Saturday slections. What are your thoughts on ew bets? I split my stakes anything 10.1 and above quarter of my stake on the place part. Had 11.1 the winner and 12.1 the second horse. Excellent work again by you and you not getting too piste. Thanks.

    Pattaya Wolf, ps Wolves fan

    Roy Bedford 12 months ago Reply


    • Hello, EW…having learnt a bit last year I now always have a minimum of 1 point on win side, over time i will win much more than 1/2 ew. That doesn’t stop a 1/2 ew bet + a 1/2 win bet and all about personal preference. Some like the more regular place returns,more psychologically than anything else. I personally can withstand long losing runs so tend to bet win only most of time. When there are 4 places and decent odds I will do 1pt ew as the place side can pay well. Or if I have convinced myself a horse is a place banker!

      Josh Wright 12 months ago Reply


  • Only been following for a couple of weeks.is this normal!!!!!!!.
    Cheers.

    Lee 12 months ago Reply


    • Haha who knows! Its been a mad 5 weeks and quite good since November really. I haven’t made that many points in a month before,but then arguably this is the first time I have put so much energy/concentration into 3m+ handicap/graded chases,and my approach to trends/stats is improved so maybe it is a positive sign! Losers are on their way though,this game isn’t this easy and the betting gods will bring me back down a peg or two soon!

      Josh Wright 12 months ago Reply


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