Big Race Trends: Doncaster- SkyBet Chase

Just getting this out the way now so I can enjoy more red wine next week! 🙂 … I suspect this will be the only ‘big race’ covered a week Saturday. 

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Doncaster: Sky Bet Chase

15 renewals since 1997

219 runners, 49 placed horses

1 winner (1/13) down as having NO previous run. Likely those with form abroad. Not accounted for in HRB.

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TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing much of note
    • PU: 0/16, 1 place
    • 8th or worse, but completed: 0/16, 3 places

Horse Age

  • Nothing too much of note, given number of runners etc
  • 12/15 Aged 6-9
    • 10+ : 3/80, 16 places…20% winners…37% runners…33% places

Days Since Run

  • 14/15 ran 16-90 days ago
    • 1-15 days: 0/20, 1 place
    • ‘First Run’: 1/13, 3 places
    • 121->365: 0/8, 1 place

Horse Weight

  • 12/15 Carried 11-2 or less
    • 11-3 + : 3/77, 19 places…20% winners…35% runners…38% places
    • 11-12+ : 0/8, 8 places – excluding claims… 0/11, 1 place

Horse Official Rating

  • 14/15 OR 142 or below
    • 143+ : 1/30, 7 places…7% winners…14% runners…14% places

Position In Market

  • 9/15 Top 3 in market

Odds

  • 14/15 priced 20/1 or under
    • 22/1 + : 1/61, 9 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 5/60, 18 places
  • IRE: 9/121, 25 places
  • FR: 1/31, 6 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear second to fourth in weights (inc joint weights): 0/47, 8 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 12/15 had 0-10 handicap runs
    • 12/135, 33 places…80% winners…62% runners…67% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 20+ chase runs: 0/28, 2 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 13+ : 1/41, 7 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 13/14 had placed on at least one of previous 3 runs
    • 1/45, 8 places had not (winner with ‘no previous form’)
      • Those with form in HRB: 0/33, 5 places did not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win Career)

  • 14/15… 0-4 career wins
    • 1/118, 21 places had 5+

H-Win (NH Race Type)

  • 15/15 had 0-4 chase wins
    • 0/46, 5 places had 5+
    • 5/22, 8 places had 0 chase wins to name (will include 1 with ‘no run’ from abroad)
      • No such runners since 2009, suggesting criteria in that sense may have changed.

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 6+ : 0/19, 3 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 5+ ; 0/17, 2 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Run

  • Yet to run above class 3: 0/10, 0 places

 

Highest Class Win

  • A win at listed or higher level: 1/51, 11 places (winner was a G1 winner)

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 9+ places in Chases: 0/38, 6 places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

Track LTO (of interest)

  • Cheltenham: 4/33, 10 places
  • Wetherby: 3/22, 7 places
  • Chep: 2/14, 4 places
  • 1 win each: Catterick/Donc/Kempt/Newb/Hayd
  • Ascot: 0/8, 1 place
  • Sand: 0/16, 2 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 2/11, 5 places
  • 1 win each – Hobbs/NTD/A C Whillans/M Hammond/D Pipe/K Bailey
  • G Moore: 0/5, 2 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/3, 0 places
  • K Reveley: 0/5, 3 places
  • N Henderson: 0/9, 3 places
  • M V Williams: 0/10, 2 places
  • A King: 0/4, 0 places
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/12, 1 place
About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

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