Members Report: 22/01/15 (COMPLETE)

Thanks for all of your comments, I never tire of reading them!

Another decent day at the ‘3m+ chase slog in the mud‘ office as Golden Chieftain rolled back the years and helped add another +11 points to the tipping pot. He really does like bowling along in front and I really do think he would have won that regardless of the error of the second as he does keep plugging on and there were still a couple of fences left. But, his relentless gallop put the two inexperienced horses behind him under pressure. If that third placed horse learns to jump he could be some animal. He needs a wide open galloping track. The way they both ran is a perfect example of why, in general, I don’t like backing horses with that kind of profile in a race like this. 

EddieMaurice stays in the tracker after a gallant effort. Heavy is not ideal and he will need to be extremely well placed now to win in those conditions. He has hurdle wins in him, during the summer on better ground maybe. 

Folsom Blue – well not much to say. Poor. On paper a good bet. Cant’t win them all though I suppose 🙂 

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TIP 

2.10 Chepstow

Loughalder1.5 point win – 16/1 (BV/Coral) 14/1 general.(market not fully formed)

West of The Edge – 1 point win – 14/1 (general)

ABANDONED – Bloody weather. Next time! 

I will jump straight to it – if the real Loughalder shows up I think he bounces out the front here, jumps superbly and gallops them all into submission. As such, I had to back him at 16s and I have a feeling he won’t go off that price come race time – if he does then we may be in trouble. 

Lets start with the big negative the PU last time. ‘We’ backed both of these horses LTO and they both failed to complete. I expected Loughalder to go close at Warwick. He was travelling well enough but then lost his backend/action when going over a road crossing/making a turn. He never looked happy after this and was looked after from there on in. Now, if that was the actual problem, and returning 22 days later suggests there are no physical issues, then we should get a right good run for our money from the front end. In handicap chases he is…

3/5, 4 places at Chepstow, 2/9, 5 places in heavy,3/8, 5 places over 3m but also does stay much further, has impressive winning form in the class above this,runs off 108 – his last winning mark – having hit OR122, 4-8 when returning within 16-30 days. He also tends to peak from January onwards. 

This is all about whether he runs his race. If he does, hold on tight. 

West Of The Edge…ran no sort of race whatever last time out. It was so bad, after an impressive stroll in the race before, that I am minded to just put a line through it. He stays well and maybe wants further, but this is a weaker race than last time and his winning pilot from that day returns. He was in no rythm from the beginning LTO and gets cheekpieces here. There is still plenty more to come from him in a slog I think. Now, clearly if he repeats his last run that is 1 point lost. But, those worries are built into his price. If he repeats his Market Raisen run, he won’t run like a 14/1 shot. I still think he may prefer going the other way round as well,but again, happy to fire one more bullet at those odds. 

The opposition…

Well most come here with plenty to prove. There are a few bigger ones lurking at the bottom it is hard to totally dismiss and I wonder whether an upset is on the  cards. I will get to them shortly.

Call The Detective has a favourites chance but is short enough for me. He hacked up in a weak C5 chase where only 2 of the 6 finished. I don’t know what to make of that form. At face value then he will clearly go well. Young, progressive, if he wins then no shock, but happy to take him on. Long John looked interesting but I have real stamina concerns. On his sire’s side he should stay, I think the weakness comes from the damn’s side – not much stamina there. He won well over 19f, travelled well for most of the way over 24f before tiring with a few to go. Happy for him to prove me wrong. 

Wellforth and Our Island are the two lurkers. The latter runs for new connections and should be fit having been Point to Pointing, but I dont think he has done much in that sphere. He is moody, BUT, if he ran up to his best rules form, would have a chance here. It is a big If though. Wellforth is 12yo now and hasn’t done much over hurdles for new connections. But, he is another whose best chase form would give him a shout. Conditions for both are fine. However they are both really out of form and a big leap of faith is required. I may throw some £2.5 (0.125 of a point for me) at the pair BFSP. Maybe. 

I really couldn’t justify backing any of the others on what they have done to date or their suitability for race conditions. I dont like backing horses returning after ‘iffy’ breaks in races like this, esp when the mud is flying – that’s the concern for Copper B and Castarine. The latter is unexposed and if fully fit would have a chance given that profile. 

So, I am playing two decent priced horses who I am hoping (expecting with the former in truth) to return to some kind of form. If they do, we should be entertained for quite a bit of the journey, and that is all I ever hope for! 🙂 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jan Trainers

2.40 Chep – Drumviredy (any)

3.30 MR – Palm Grey (16/1<)

Jumps Handicappers

1.50 MR – Ourmanmassini (20/1<) 

2.55 MR – Gold Ingot (12/1<)

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(remember these are NOT tips)

3.30 MR – Captain Kelly – 11/1 – looks interesting given Dan Skelton’s record with newcomers from other yards – 15/44 in the last year, 27/76 in the last two years, 3/7, 5 places at the track. This ex Nicholl’s inmate has been off for 850 odd says but I suspect he will be fit enough here. He is still relatively lightly raced and could be very well handicapped. In what looks an open race, 11/1 could turn out to be generous enough albeit the market may guide. 

4.00 MR – Moon Arc – 11/1 / 10/1 – His trainer is 3/6 with his NH handicap debutants in the last two years and his yard is also in good nick, 4/19 in the last 30 days. This is quite a way to send one -269 miles to be precise- and he has only had one runner here before (unplaced) The racing post comment says they would have liked to have seen more in his three juvenile hurdle runs – well he was sent off at 25/1, 66/1 and 40/1 – not odds where I would have expected to see a lot! The 50 day break is intriguing with this type of horse – maybe a wind op, but definitely plenty of time to get him race fit, which I may suggest he wasnt before. 11/1 is an ok price and I have had a small nibble to see if he has plenty in hand, or just isnt very good. 

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That is all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Well josh you have done the business again thanks again you are tops with me keep up the good work

    kenneth begbie 21/01/16 4:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. You mention the L word. Does that mean you’re more confident than a standard 1pter?

    Nick Mazur 21/01/16 4:53 PM Reply


    • Hmm, well, yes, thanks for the jab! 1.5 points now. IF he runs up to his best I think he will take all the beating having had a quick glance at the rest. So much in his favour and I think there is a valid excuse for LTO

      Josh Wright 21/01/16 5:09 PM Reply


      • Ok brilliant thanks.

        Nick Mazur 21/01/16 5:17 PM Reply


  • hi josh good stuff with golden today totally with loughalder I looked at the race thought your one and the fav had the best chances in the race both got decent speed ratings aswell with ratings I use so at 14/1 well worth a bet might have a win saver on the fav aswell looking forward to the write up antony

    antony church 21/01/16 6:43 PM Reply


    • yep, bar I really have no idea what the form of fav LTO amounts to not much I can say to put you off – as much a price decision, in context of how big the other two are, as much as anything – and if your speed figs etc are saying that his last race should be taken at face value, then get on him.

      Josh Wright 21/01/16 6:54 PM Reply


  • I think the case for the defense already rests but you can also add the fact that Sheppard is 3/5 4 places over handicap chases at Chepstow in the past 4 years (with Poste on for all rides bar one of the wins) to the list of evidance. Fingers crossed it doesnt get rained off.

    Nick 21/01/16 9:15 PM Reply


    • NM just noticed all of Sheppard’s runs would have been from Loughalder (been a long week)

      Nick 21/01/16 9:44 PM Reply


  • Ben Case has a couple of runners at Chepstow which might be of interest,has been out of form for some time but had a winner recently,Midnight Jazz in the 2.40 and wish in a well 4.20,Midnight Jazz ran well in race won by lily Waugh at Cheltenham and drops in grade,has won over course and distance.at 7/1 might be test for likely fav Hollies pearl.Cant make much of a case for his other runner except for stats

    gerry 21/01/16 11:08 PM Reply


    • Also interested in Midnight Jazz in the 2.40. Between her and Queen of the Stage for me. Both well over priced given their respectable runs in quality races LTO.

      Trouble is, don’t know how Midnight Jazz performs on heavy, nor how QOTS goes LH

      One of these will be my daily tip for sure

      Ali 22/01/16 12:09 AM Reply


  • Thanks Josh
    Nice find,Poste is super jockey
    I am also taking Palm Grey,good chance i see
    Jim Crowley Jockey only one run iis 3-05. Lingfield
    Horse has poor stats but he is magician at Lin 20/1 i take it
    Regards
    P

    Pab 22/01/16 1:27 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Caught Rae Guest yesterday in a maiden FTO got 10’s thanks for that

    Allan 22/01/16 8:02 AM Reply


    • Ah was he 10s! I am glad you were on – yep, there he was staring at me in my HRB account – missed him. As ever, glad you were on! (assume you mean handicap 1st time out in case that confuses anyone!)

      Josh Wright 22/01/16 8:19 AM Reply


  • Kim Baileys silver eagle has been well backed from 7 into 9/2 this morning,was backed last time like a big run was expected after long break,however he jumped really badly,might have not been as ready as they thought.David Bass does well with chasers,though 9/2 is bit skinny

    gerry 22/01/16 10:14 AM Reply


    • Yep, 9/2 may be ok and look decent (havent really looked at race) – problem is it definitely looks skinny when you know you could have had 7s! Market would suggest that Gold Ingot isnt winning! We shall see – i looked at him, decided I couldnt totally dismiss him and had a nibble. Trainer could have a better track record mind.

      Josh Wright 22/01/16 12:57 PM Reply


  • Sorry – did mean 1st time out in a handicap after 3 maidens

    Allan 22/01/16 12:23 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh where can I find the list of all your TIPS in January 2016?
    It must be impressive to say the least !!!

    Robert Dee

    Robert Dee 24/01/16 1:31 PM Reply


    • Hi Robert, from the start of next month I will be publishing more detailed results in a spreadsheet. You can flick through all blog posts here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/category/blog/ – there isnt a list of tips as such yet. There are weekly reviews and there was an annual review around November which was about 12 months since I started blogging ‘properly. So, early feb there will be detailed results from start 2016 onwards.

      Josh Wright 24/01/16 7:12 PM Reply


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