Members Report: 20/01/16 (COMPLETE + Late Addition..)

UPDATE: Well I have upped my ‘notebooking’ game this jumps season and with the likes of Art Lord and Russe Blanc it is starting to pay off. You can’t beat watching races and when you only focus on one race type it does help – well it helps me anyway! 

I don’t know if he would have won if the horse upsides him hadn’t fallen – too far out to tell – but that is why 1. I don’t get too irate when I back a last fence faller etc, it does even out over time…2. the importance of track position. The jockey on the faller made a decision to close down the leader before that fence and I think he attacked it too fast. He was unproven over the trip and while he looked to be going well, Art Lord hadn’t been asked for any effort. Anyway, I don’t really care, a winner is a winner and it keeps the good run going. 

(i think that takes the tips to +57 points in the last 19 days, and ‘the portfolio’ to +200 points in just over 5.5 months. That was my 12 month target for ‘the portfolio’ so I think we are ahead of schedule!)

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TIPS 

3.10 Newbury 

Achimota – 1.5 point win – 7/1 general 

FORECAST – 0.5 point – No. 9 to beat No.5 (5/2-7/1)

 

Abandoned. Damn. Assumed that would go ahead. That is a couple of hours I will never get back! 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

No potential qualifiers. 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(remember these are not tips)

1.10 Muss – Proud Gamble – 16/1 – Dobbin is 3/13, 5 places (or was before season started) with her handicap chasers at the track. In what looks a weak race at first glance, he is in the ‘could be anything ‘ box. He didn’t get very far last time on chase debut so will need to jump better – but everything to date screams that he wants a trip. I always like when connections don’t mess around over hurdles for too long, indicating they clearly think they have a chaser on their hands. The trainer is in ok form, 5 recent runners, one placed, and I believe it was one of hers that loomed up next to Art Lord yesterday. So, if he jumps well, I think he will out run his odds. The other negative is that this could be viewed as his seasonal debut again, given how early he fell LTO. So fitness, and whether he will pull again (too fresh) would also be concerns. All built into the price for me. Either way, given his profile, he is one to keep onside over fences up north. I suspect they will get wins out of him. 

6.10 Muss KEMPT!- Elle Rebelle – 8/1 – Trainer and Jockey are 3/6, 4 places when teaming up in handicaps at the track. Morris is 2/7, 5 places on this horse. The last run was her first over this distance and it looks like she could improve further for it. She looks an interesting runner here. 

6.40 Kempton – Mr Red Clubs– 12/1 – was an eye-catcher LTO that I missed this morning, apologies. Writing this at 11.21 (cheers Pat!) He was noted down as travelling well on his second run after a break and running well considering he was trapped very wide and must have lost quite a few lengths over the trip. He has been best at Wolvs to date but has won here. He goes over a new trip for the first time and there is not enough evidence on the track to suggest that he definitely will not stay- certainly not at this class. When they fail at a higher level over a similar trip it is hard to know whether they were just outclassed, or just didn’t stay. He is 3/8, 6 places in C5 AW Handicaps. He is 2/9, 5 places OR 70 or below on AW. The trainer is a bit cold – 1/37 in last 14 days. So, some positives, some unknowns and some negatives. Do with that what you will!

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • Keep em Comin Josh – Superb tipping again today

    Joe 19/01/16 5:00 PM Reply


  • Thank you Josh nice winner today

    Richard 19/01/16 5:48 PM Reply


  • Well done josh you are in from hope it lasts for Cheltenham

    kenneth begbie 19/01/16 5:53 PM Reply


    • I think we can all predict what may happen now! But, plenty of points to play with.

      Josh Wright 19/01/16 6:02 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh, superb tipping.

    Edward 19/01/16 6:29 PM Reply


  • Great work Josh.

    Darren 19/01/16 6:42 PM Reply


  • Another great result again today josh,well done!your work ethic and attention to detail is there for everyone to see and the results are showing that,and long may it continue.The noise and signal book looks quite intresting ,always good to read up an these things in my view,anyways well done again today & all the best.

    robbie w 19/01/16 7:17 PM Reply


  • Great research again Josh. Well done

    tim 19/01/16 8:01 PM Reply


  • I think your thought processes and reasoning for selection are really sound. Everyone has to be really impressed with this.

    john 19/01/16 8:02 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Once again excellent race reading, not seen the race. Getting the value means that the losing run which will always happen will keep us in profit.

    Roy Bedford 19/01/16 8:50 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh. Keep up the good work.
    Lingham

    lingham 19/01/16 8:58 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. Kudos to you.

    Tony.

    Tony Brannan 19/01/16 10:31 PM Reply


  • Donald McCain yard seems to have hit a bit of form,does well with chasers at Musselburgh,Court of Law in the 3.30 with Henry Brooke up at 8 and tom georges definitely better at 11/2 might be the value option of his runners there

    gerry 19/01/16 11:33 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh, missed yesterday due to work but can’t complain given recent returns. Glad to see the run continues!

    Joe H 20/01/16 8:14 AM Reply


    • Cheers Joe, ah sorry to hear that…I am trying to get more up the evening before, and Art Lord was up the night before on this occasion.

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 8:21 AM Reply


  • Get some coffee down you, Josh…610 is Kempton, mate.

    Paul 20/01/16 8:53 AM Reply


    • Noted!! drinking as we speak. At least the time was right 🙂

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 9:02 AM Reply


  • Looks like the fav is coming out of the Elle Rebelle race…big bloody R4

    Paul 20/01/16 9:18 AM Reply


  • I will be at Kempton tonight Josh with my horse Dragoon Guard (6.40) so will give Elle Rebelle an extra cheer home………hopefully

    Tony 20/01/16 9:20 AM Reply


    • Ah good stuff. Good luck, i will be cheering yours on.

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 9:30 AM Reply


  • keep up the good work with 3m+ chases, had £25 win on russe blanc anyway, knew should have backed art lord! am backing all of them from now

    malcolm pendrey 20/01/16 10:13 AM Reply


  • Hi Joss, I have been following you for some time now, great articles and superb tipping. I noticed about 2 weeks ago that Mr Red Clubs (6:40 Kemp) was an eye catcher of yours. What do you think of its chances today? Running over 1m 3f for the first time I think. Handicap ploy?

    Pat 20/01/16 11:09 AM Reply


    • Cheers Pat – thanks for highlighting him – he is sat there in my HRB account right in front of me, but i missed him for some reason. Thanks for highlighting, thoughts now above. Could well be running him to get mark down further, before returning to optimum conditions at Wolvs – but hard to say he definitely cant win and may be worth a small EW tickle at those odds to find out!

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 11:29 AM Reply


      • Thanks Joss, will have a couple of £s e/w. If it doesn’t win there is always next time!!

        Pat 20/01/16 11:42 AM Reply


        • Indeed…he ran last time as if he wasnt far from striking, and if not today hopefully he is well drawn back at Wolvs NTO! Certainly handicapped to go in, and even more so with this jockey’s claim. GL.

          Josh Wright 20/01/16 11:44 AM Reply


  • Josh, I had a look at Proud Gamble on the HRB site and if you ask for odds between 4.33 and 11.00 we get 3 wins / 4 places from 11 runs. I would be slightly concerned that PG has drifted out to 16/1 now ?

    simon b 20/01/16 11:46 AM Reply


    • ?? are you referring to the horse with those odds? He has yet to win a race, and last time was the first time he went off at under 25/1. In terms of the trainer…Dobbin is 9/232, 31 places with all runners priced 14/1 -40/1…in chases with runners priced 14/1-20/1 she is 2/22, 5 places. So,w while they are hard to find she isnt a ‘there must be money’ trainer. I/we have all probably backed plenty of horses that have drifted/been weak and have won. Sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue! The negatives are fairly big – chasing inexperience/effectively first run back – but they clearly see him as a chaser, so we shall see.

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 11:51 AM Reply


  • ok thanks Josh , no I meant the Trainer. interesting to read your insight and your comment that she is not a money trainer . there is a facility on HRB – Odds Move% (Early v Open) which sometimes can be enlightening , have you used this ?. not in this case though from your comments !!

    simon b 20/01/16 12:10 PM Reply


    • haha no i haven’t used that but am aware of it and that is an area for study – but with an angle like that you would need to be a market watcher.- in terms of following a group of trainers say. I suppose given my approach my first concern is to see whether the trainer has big priced winners – i just used the trainer profiler tool in HRB for those stats. Clearly when hers are backed that is more of a positive, (so, in that sense she is a money trainer!) but not necessarily a negative if they go unbacked. By ‘money trainer’ I meant there doesnt have to be money for hers to go well.

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 12:25 PM Reply


  • thanks for your reply Josh .

    simon b 20/01/16 12:41 PM Reply


  • Solway Races look her horses,that duo is great yesterday i won 6/1 with her horse today ii won 25/1 with Solway Bay

    Duo to follow
    Winning TrainerMiss L Harrison
    Winning JockeyC Bewley

    Pab 20/01/16 2:17 PM Reply


    • Well done Pab, not a bad priced winner! If you have some stats that would add to your analysis that would be great! And, next time tell me before he bolts up so I can get on haha – seriously, don’t hold back on any thoughts/punts pre race for fear of putting up one that drops out the back of the tv – I am more than accustomed to that!

      Josh Wright 20/01/16 2:30 PM Reply


      • The combination of Lisa Harrison and Connor Bewley before today were 5/49 showing a loss of 21.25 points at Industry SP…romped into profit now obviously but I wouldn’t say they have a track record of ‘greatness’ previously!

        Steve Veasey 20/01/16 7:00 PM Reply


  • I follow Miss L Harrison horses,next are 25 Presented and Will Hill,i had already two wins with Wll
    But her horses are much better on Flat Races

    Pab 20/01/16 10:37 PM Reply


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