UPDATE: Well I have upped my ‘notebooking’ game this jumps season and with the likes of Art Lord and Russe Blanc it is starting to pay off. You can’t beat watching races and when you only focus on one race type it does help – well it helps me anyway!
I don’t know if he would have won if the horse upsides him hadn’t fallen – too far out to tell – but that is why 1. I don’t get too irate when I back a last fence faller etc, it does even out over time…2. the importance of track position. The jockey on the faller made a decision to close down the leader before that fence and I think he attacked it too fast. He was unproven over the trip and while he looked to be going well, Art Lord hadn’t been asked for any effort. Anyway, I don’t really care, a winner is a winner!
(i think that takes the tips to +57 points in the last 19 days, and ‘the portfolio’ to +200 points in just over 5.5 months. That was my 12 month target for ‘the portfolio’ so I think we are ahead of schedule!)
Art Lord – 1 point win – 10/1 (Lad, not BOG until morning sometime), 9/1 (BV) WON 7/1 (recorded as 9/1, 10s with Lad all evening, and with BV this morning for a time)
Well I think I tipped/backed this one last time out and I am going to give him another go here. He made a sloppy error last time when travelling very powerfully. The fact he returns 15 days later suggests he is none the worse and it wasnt a heavy fall – it may even help him mentally. He handled soft/heavy ground over shorter in Ireland no problem and I backed him last time due to his unexposed profile over this trip. There is every chance he improves for it, which looked to be the case LTO. The trainer knows how to train handicap chasers – 6/24, 13 places in previous 730 days. He is doing something different and is unexposed for his age, this only his 12th chase start. Hopefully he completes, and if he does we should get a run for our money.
As Leon points out below there is stamina in his pedigree, plenty of his sire’s offspring have got a trip, and this ground. His recent form over shorter is also quite good for the level.
There are a lot of older horses in this race and quite a few coming here after breaks of one sort or another. Cobajayisland has had 75 days off and I have no idea why, i think there can only have been a hold up. He has been kept to decent ground as well which would raise concerns over the going. However, he hasn’t proved he can’t handle it, but 4s may be short in the context of break/ground. But he is progressive. Trainer is 3/37 in last 30 days which is also a concern. Blue Kascade only ever seems to run well fresh and should go in all our trackers for his seasonal return next season! I should think that is why he has had another break, but he usually needs longer looking at his profile to date. But, clearly if he repeats his last run he is going to go very close. He may have competition for the lead also. My Friend George has stamina questions on this ground and is 0/6, 1 place OR91+, 3/7, 4 places OR90 or below (ratings dropper to follow?..)…and Chavoy looks a bit out of sorts. His was a laboured 3rd LTO. But, he is well handicapped with the claim and does like the track. His jumping can be iffy and I would have wanted to see a tad more last time. If he tries to lead again he will be taken on. I have deliberated him at 7s but have left him, I hope not to my error, as he is a proven slogger. The jockey booking intrigued me also, and not really in a good way, albeit he is talented enough.
For one reason or another I can’t have the rest. It does feel like an open race but we should get a run for our money and he is a decent enough price.
PACE – there looks to be plenty of it if a few adopt recent running tactics. There are 4 or 5 who like to get on with it and hopefully the selection can just track the pace and pounce over the last couple.
That will be all for tips. ‘Specialising’ in these 3m+ handicap/graded chases is working rather well this jumps season and I don’t plan on changing anytime soon.
No potential qualifiers.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST…
(remember these are not tips, and this section is a bit experimental, trying to find some stats/pace/profile angles that highlight bigger priced horses who may go well)
2.20 South- Rupert Boy – 11/1 – a potential front runner here who could stay out all the way. He has the highest speed figure from those that I use (geegeez racecards) and so far in career has always tried to lead. He has been consistent but is of most interest because of the step up in trip. He is bred to get 7f and it looks like it is worth a go. Hopefully he gets an easy lead and if he does relish the trip could see them all off. In truth I don’t really get on with the AW, not my thing at all, and he will now probably be held up out the back! 🙂
That is all for today. As always, you know the blog is complete when COMPLETE is in the heading, which will be no later than 10am on day of racing, Mon-Friday, 11am at weekends.