Members Report: 18/01/16 (COMPLETE)

As sporting Sundays go that was a pretty dire one, especially if you are a Liverpool fan. It wasn’t the best game in the world but quite simply we have too many mediocre players and I suspect Klopp will be wielding the axe in the summer. Rooney may not be world class anymore, but he used to be, and that touch of quality was the difference. No excuses. Not good enough. Anyway, there were some entertaining chants to lighten up the afternoon that are too rude to repeat, but they did make me smile. 

Back to the horses…Well the trends bubble was burst on the coral hurdle which after my build up was probably predictable! (next year!) Still, only two points loaned back to the bookies. That will happen every now and then with that approach, and more often than not, but the winners/profit make up for it over the course of a year. I believe the race was slowly run from reports I have read (yet to watch it) and that can always make trends meaningless – my belief for big races is that they are a sound approach in part due to the fact that in these big field races there is usually a solid/fast pace,ensuring results can be trusted over time, and hence any profiles that emerge etc. Anyway, I won’t dive into Irish racing too often because my knowledge is not there, although that doesn’t stop me producing stats etc for those of you who like your Irish racing and know more than me. (I will look at the Irish National for sure – remember having £2.50 on Niche Market at 50/1 BFSP a few years back- , a smattering at Punchestown/Galway maybe) 

Onto today. No tips, but a couple that caught the eye…

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(remember these are NOT tips. Just some considered info that you may wish to apply to the race when looking at it etc) 

 

2.15 Plump – 2.45 Plump- Darkestbeforedawn – UP 14/1- an interesting runner for Mrs Keevil who is (was before season started) 3/13, 4 places with her handicap hurdlers here. This horse returned after a long absence two starts ago and ran ok, weakening a few from home. He ran 16 days later and may well have bounced although still ran ok. It is impossible to say he doesn’t handle heavy, and indeed in non-handicaps has ran well enough on it a few times, and also over inadequate trips. He stays 24f, but it is the track I find interesting. He may not really like these flat tracks and it could be the hills of plumpton show him in a new light. Maybe. He may well come to the boil now on his third start after that absence. Plenty of iffs,buts and maybes but he is a double figure price. 

3.15 Plump – Ravens Brook -12/1- PU- I am not sure if I am mentioning this one in terms of considering to back him today, but rather as one to enter into your trackers if you wish. When racing for R Lee (who moves/sells a horse from the Lee’s??!) his two wins came when dropping into the basement level, C5 (2/2 C5<3.5k) He handles heavy no problem and the trip is an unknown, the two times he tried it where after a break, so the jury is still out. Maybe, a slog in the mud, is what he has been crying out for! Evidence to date may suggest he won’t stay, but, that info is there to do as you please. Clearly he is no sort of form whatsoever and is now 0/5, 0 places for this trainer. I will endeavor to highlight these potential class droppers when they run etc.

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jan Trainers

2.15 Plump – Head Spin (10/1<) UP

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That is all for today.  

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • 2.45 Darkestbeforedawn, Josh

    Paul 18/01/16 9:55 AM Reply


    • Cheers Paul, yet to have my second coffee, pouring it now!

      Josh Wright 18/01/16 10:04 AM Reply


  • You can never be certain in races with such a big field but Desoto looked hands down the best horse in the race yesterday and made up a huge amount of ground on the leaders despite having to go 5-6 wide for a lot of the way to get 3rd so I think we were very unlucky, but I guess you have to take the rough with the smooth with this game particularly given the fact that the jockey on Russe Blanc was fortunate to stay on given the saddle problems.

    Nick Mazur 18/01/16 11:11 AM Reply


  • Team Baker!
    Zac has Topthorn 315P who takes a drop in grade, now back below 100 – last winning mark. Jumping has been his achilles heel this season but slower pace here may help. I took a price early and money has followed?
    George has Winterval 430W, also down in grade in a weak C3; conditions fine for this ex Godolphin beast and 12/1 is good.

    Chris 18/01/16 11:28 AM Reply


    • That’s Winterlude 🙁

      Chris 18/01/16 12:22 PM Reply


      • Winterlude is a strangely big price, given that he’s ridden by George Baker but also his sire is Street Cry who has a tremendous record on A/W. Definitely worth an interest…

        Steve Veasey 18/01/16 1:30 PM Reply


        • Edit: Ah, just seen he was off for two years before Jenny Candlish picked him up and he has shown nothing in 3 races with her, explains the price!

          Steve Veasey 18/01/16 1:32 PM Reply


  • Think you were very unlucky yesterday josh,I’ve watched the race back a good few times at this stage and reckon Desoto County could have at least fought out the finish,he got squeezed by a couple horses just over 2 furlongs out,he seemed to stumble a bit,almost came to a complete stop and looked like he lost a lot of momentum at a critical point of the race,and then had to weave his way past plenty of horses,finishing a ever closing 3rd.Reckon if he had got a run it would put a completely different perspective on the bare outcome of this race.Of the others Kalkir is worth following imo,better ground should help and hopefully the handicapper wont be too harsh.After rain is another to take from the race as the ground just got to him in my view,and was eased when his chance had gone,he wears a hood which could make him a little too active early in competitive handicaps on heavy going,could still be well handicapped in the right conditions.

    Interesting comments by Charles O’Brien,trainer of Henry Higgins,he was thinking that the county hurdle could be the target,as its named after his father Vincent O’Brien,the lowest rated horse running last year was 134 so he should be fine for that,lowest rated horse in the coral cup was 138(ran off 131 yesterday)he was also concerned about the extra distance,so not so sure about the 100k bonus.

    bob 18/01/16 11:51 AM Reply


    • Cheers Bob and Nick, I will make sure I watch it – in fairness we were due a bit of bad luck, that is racing! The canny Gordon will come up with a plan for him. Will add those you mention to the tracker.

      Josh Wright 18/01/16 11:59 AM Reply


  • opps just saw nicks comment above,totally agree obviously!

    bob 18/01/16 11:55 AM Reply


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