Members Report: 17/01/16 (COMPLETE)

Russe Blanc ran a blinder, received a brilliant ride which nearly turned to disaster, and outstayed them all as his running style and racing life to date suggested he would. Bloody brilliant and if results/races like that don’t get you excited, time for a new sport! ūüôā¬†

Foxbridge was running a cracker as well and who knows what would have happened if a horse didnt come down in front of him. Definitely one to watch and he clearly gets that ground, unlike most of them in that race. The second should also be taken out of that as he is a dour stayer who clearly relished mud also. 

No time to dwell in this sport, although I am about to watch that race again, we move over the Irish Sea for what looks like the strongest trends race I have ever researched – clearly we now know what will happen to ¬†the three below!….(oh, and good ‘old’ Henry Oliver chipped in with a nice winner also for the systems)

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BIG RACE PREVIEW 

2.25 Leop

Okotoks – 1 pt EW – 25/1 (5 places, PP/Bet365 – money back offer on the former if second to fav) (coral 6 places – if you can get on!)

Desoto County – 1 pt win – 10/1 (PP/Bet365/SJ)

Sir Scorpion Р1 pt win Р20/1 (general, PP offer as above) 

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Let’s start with some trends/stats…brace yourselves (but don’t go unloading the wheelbarrow on those above!)….

19/19 finished Top 7 LTO (0/84, 4 places did not)

19/19 had 0-4 runs this season (0/121, 15 places had 5+)

19/19 had 0-9 runs over hurdles (0/201, 21 places had 10+)

18/18 (one of those with french form,down as never having had a run) finished top 5 on at least one of previous 3 starts…

Let’s just take the top 3 of those for now.¬†

That would leave a manageable list of: Ivan Grozny / Buiseness Sivola / Cliff House / De Name Escapes Me / Bamako Moriviere / Vive La France / THE  3 SELECTIONS

Now, it is quite possible to then dismiss all of those bar the selections…

19/19 had an OR of 128 or below (0/71, 13 places had higher) 

Those carrying 11-10+ are 0/16, 2 places

French Breds are 0/39, 7 places

17/19 carried 10-11 or less (exc jockey claim) (2/166, 24 places carried more)

Those that ran at Limerick and Cork LTO are a combined: 0/53, 3 places

Noel Meade is 0/32, 0 places in the race! (trains De Name Escapes Me ) 

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So, all of those above the 3 selections fall down on a few of those trends/stats combined. 

The three that don’t happen to be the three I am backing!¬†

*** 

ANALYSIS 

I am not going to pretend to have looked at their form in depth. Clearly some of those stats are going to be broken at some point but I am hoping that it is not this year. 

Desoto County – he looks to have an obvious chance. Progressive, in form, fit and I dare say plenty more to come. If he stays on his feat he probably looks place banker material but I didn’t really want to have 5 points on this race so have gone win only given the ‘shortish’ odds.¬†

Sir Scorpion – well fitness looks to be the only concern. But, the trainer is 11/182, 32 places with all runners after a break of 121+ days, and while no horse after such a break has won this, the sample is small enough, and that trainer record indicates he can get them fit. Surely he will be fit here and this is no after-thought. If he isnt fit, he won’t place, which is why I went win only. My instinct says the break concerns me, the price, and the fact we have points in the bank, has made me have a nibble.¬†

Okotoks Рthe most exciting one of the trio. He really is exciting and has no blemish that I can see. He makes his handicap debut for the crafty Tony Martin (1/15, 8 places in race, from 9 races he has had runners in) and the break of 50 days or so looks intriguing. He is a plotter and a big race target trainer. Surely this has been the plan in last few weeks. He is 10/57, 21 places in handicaps at the track in the last 730 days. Denis, the jockey, is 4/17, 6 places for him in that time, in handicaps. Handicap Hurdles he is 3/23, 8 places at track. He is just exciting given the stats, and connections and with luck in running looks likely to out-run those tasty odds. 

The Opposition…

Well I haven’t really looked in truth and I won’t pretend my knowledge of the Irish 2m hurdle scene is that strong! This is very much about the three horses above, not combined with an assessment of the other runners. Hopefully we are entertained.¬†

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

NONE from the portfolio but as a bonus there are 4 potentials from the portfolio of systems in my AW report…

1.30 Kempt – Ocean Legend (16/1<)

3.10 Kempt – King Olav (16/1<)

4.10 Kempt – New Leaf (10/1<) / Pour La Victoire (16/1<)*

*just a note for New Leaf Рthe trainers record with horses over 7f within this angle is dire. I am tracking it as it is fine with those at 6f, and 8f Р7f is specialist, suggesting he may just not have the horses maybe. But, something to note. Maybe this one will go in! 

***

That is all for tomorrow. I will be at Anfield for my first experience of watching us play against our friends up the road, without signal, so I will just imagine Okotoks crossing the line in front at around 2.30. 

Enjoy your Sunday. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • A word to the wise folks Corals are priced up bpg and are the first I have seen paying 6 places
    Best of luck

    Aaron 16/01/16 5:51 PM Reply


  • Cheers for the write up josh,this is corals first year sponsoring this as they kick of into the Irish market,there’s a 100k bonus if the winner of this goes on to win the coral cup in march,Xenophon did the double 12 years ago,(who last raced in April 04),who was trained by one A.J. MARTIN,can Okotoks do it again and land the loots?anyways popped a little each way on Okotoks and Sir Scorpion,hard to go wrong at those odds,hopefully you’ll keep the good run going.

    bob 16/01/16 8:05 PM Reply


  • Thank you for Russe Blanc tip Josh! A pure white romping home at 25s – what a late birthday present!

    Ali 16/01/16 8:12 PM Reply


  • Josh you are the man I love the way you write up your blog keep up the good work

    kenneth begbie 16/01/16 8:47 PM Reply


  • thank you Josh big race preview does it again

    Richard 16/01/16 9:05 PM Reply


  • Excellent topping Josh keep them coming

    Kevin 17/01/16 8:35 AM Reply


    • Cheers gents, yes all going rather well so far this jumps season, will try and keep it going!

      Josh Wright 17/01/16 8:43 AM Reply


  • I don’t know if this is the actual angle for Jeremy Gask but I just spotted a pattern in New Leyf’s form where he runs badly in a claiming race then returns in a handicap and wins – has happened three times in the last year. Today he runs in a handicap just after a shocking run in a claiming race, could be coincidence but also could be a useful trick to get the handicap mark down (he’s running off the same mark of his last handicap win today).

    Steve Veasey 17/01/16 10:34 AM Reply


    • interesting that. Market is usually a good guide for his so shall see if any money comes, a bit weak at moment. But, you have given me food for thought in terms of an angle worth further research!

      Josh Wright 17/01/16 10:37 AM Reply


  • Excellent tipping once again Josh …great start to the newyear…

    harold 17/01/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • Thanks Harold, took a few weeks pre November, but in form now. Will enjoy it while it lasts!

      Josh Wright 17/01/16 10:48 AM Reply


  • Josh thanks for yesterdays great result,brilliant stuff,i notice Okotoks is a non runner today,still plenty to go at.Cheers BoB.

    BoB 17/01/16 11:43 AM Reply


  • Just the one bullet left for me so,the going has changed to soft/ heavy which should help sir Scorpion as he has won on soft/heavy before,and also has track form on soft,hopefully will be fit enough to have a right cut off it.

    bob 17/01/16 12:10 PM Reply


  • I had a go at this race on Friday using your video Josh, glad to see I uncovered all the main trends through HRB. I didnt have enough time to apply them to the field so thanks for the blog – as always!

    Mon the Reds!!

    Joe H 17/01/16 12:22 PM Reply


  • if you fancy a trends-buster in the leopardstown hurdle, go for Vive La France

    i counter the french breds’ poor race record with the trainer’s record with new recruits: 4 wins from 15 if i remember correctly, the two at this track both placed

    as for the the horse, won its last in great style. might be a ‘spring horse’ for better going though

    Ali 17/01/16 1:09 PM Reply


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