SATURDAY BIG RACE TRENDS

Below I have started to look at the Classic Chase from Warwick. I managed to find the winner last season and will be trying to do the same again! There are not too many strong trends but a few pointers nonetheless. 

For my Daily Punt Blog I will have a look at the 2.25 – C2 Handicap Hurdle. As usual the trends/stats will be emailed out by them, I will post a link if I can. I will post up the tips for that when I have decided, and again they will email out my reasoning etc. 

I suspect that will be it on Saturday from a trends/stats/race profiling perspective. 

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3.35 Warwick: Classic Chase 3m5f

13 renewals since 2000

174 runners, 41 placed horses

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‘KILLER STATS’ (I may think of a better name!)

Looking through those below there are 4 that I think I will use as a starting point.

  1. Top 5 LTO (mark up top 3) or Did Not Complete
  2. 6 or fewer career wins to name 
  3. Top 3 on at least one of previous 3 starts
  4. 9 or fewer places in all CHASES (10+ negative enough)

-Bottom/joint bottom weight is also a negative.

You may of course disagree with that and wish to focus on others. I will see how much of a shortlist those 4 throw up. The Welsh National is firm in my mind – this could be as much of a slog in heavy ground, and having a horse that gets the ground and has proven stamina may well be the best starting point! 

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ALL PLACE STATS WILL INCLUDE WINS AS WELL

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TRENDS

8/13 Top 3 LTO

  • 8/77 runners, 21 places…62% winners…44% runners…51% placed horses
  • 0/23, 8 places finished 4th or 5th
  • 3/27, 5 places PU LTO
  • 1/12, 4 places Fell LTO
  • 0/29, 1 place of those that completed, but finished 6th or worse LTO

AGE: Nothing of Note

Days Since Run: Nothing of Note

ODDS: Nothing much of note, winners at all prices.

  • 14/1-40/1: 4/70, 11 places

12/13 carried 11-7 or less

  • 1/24, 4 places carried more… 8% winners…14% runners…10% placed horses

12/13 Had 2 or more runs this season

  • 1/35, 4 places had 0 or 1…8% winners…20% runners…10% places

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OTHER STATS

Breeding (origin of horse): Nothing of Note

WEIGHT (Exc jockey Claim)

  • 0/29, 7 places carried 10-0

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

  • 0/34, 8 places…Clear bottom or joint bottom weight…20% runners…20% places

H – Run (career)

  • 25+…1/57, 10 places…8% winners…33% runners…24% places

H- Run (Hncp)

  • 16+…1/50, 7 places…8% winners…29% runners…17% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 11 or fewer…11/118, 30 places…85% winners…68% runners…73% places

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H-Win (Career)

  • 13/13 had 6 or fewer career wins
  • 7+…0/44, 8 places…25% runners…20% places

H-Win (NH Race Type)

  • 6+…0/23, 4 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 6+… 0/15, 3 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 0 or 1 Handicap Chase Wins: 9/83…23 places…69% winners…48% runners…56% places

Best In Three Runs

  • 13/13 finished Top 3 on at least one of previous 3 starts
    • 0/28, 6 places had not

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 10+….0/32, 3 places

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(Horse Last Race Data)

 Track LTO (of interest)

  • Cheltenham: 3/33, 10 places
  • Newbury: 3/13, 4 places
  • Chepstow: 2/40, 10 places
  • Lingfield: 2/3, 2 places
  • 1 win each: Haydock/Wetherby/Hereford
  • Sandown: 0/9, 1 place
  • Exeter: 0/8, 1 place

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 3/12, 4 places
  • A King: 2/9, 5 places
  • 1 win each: Tizzard/NTD/V Williams/Mrs S J Smith/E Lavelle
  • D Pipe: 0/6, 0 places
  • C Longsdon: 0/4, 3 places
  • P Bowen: 0/4, 0 places
  • Jonjo: 0/4, 0 places
  • Hobbs: 0/4, 1 place

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Those of you familiar with my ‘checklist’ from previous posts can assume that where an angle is excluded/missing, I deemed there to be nothing of note/importance from the stats. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    This race has been upgraded a couple of times and has been a Grade 3 since 2005 which gives 9 renewals so I have taken my stats from those.

    Red Devil Lads comes out well even though it will be only a week since he ran in the Welsh National. Normally that would be a big concern but he didn’t have a hard race having unseated at the 8th. The 2 recent winners that came from there also failed to complete albeit the race was run in December giving them a longer rest period.

    Sego Success, Algernon Pazham and Spookydooky also look strong from a trends perspective so I will keep those on side and decide when the final decs have been made.

    Interested to see what your take is, and other members, on the race.

    Eric 13/01/16 8:57 PM Reply


    • Hi Eric,

      Yes I did see that it had been upgraded and I still don’t know what to make of those races – especially from C2 to C1G3 – not too much difference for me. Thinking off top of my head I suppose OR bands may be different, as may how classier horses (prev G1/2 winners) may get on. But in general, the big field races are run at a sound pace and I don’t think that change would affect the ‘winning profile’ too much.

      We do have different approaches to finding the trends and what we do with them when we find them. Both complimentary I suspect and it will be fascinating moving forwards to compare shortlists etc. My initial glance with those stats that stand out to me has left a rather long shortlist, which non runners will hopefully reduce!

      Josh Wright 14/01/16 9:36 AM Reply


  • Excellent stats josh. Keep up good work

    Daniel Pietryka 14/01/16 12:32 PM Reply


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