BIG RACE TRENDS: My Approach/Checklist

BIG RACE TRENDS

I am about to start my Cheltenham research. There are 10 handicaps to get stuck into and I suspect I will also look at the RSA, Albert Bartlett (a lucky race for me having  found /backed/tipped the last two winners at 50/1 and 10/1) and the Gold Cup, as a bonus.

I will also be looking to find some robust micro angles to help in the tricky task of coming out in front at this meeting. These will all be compiled into a ‘stats pack/guide’ that you will be able to purchase. Yet to decide price, but it will be in the £10-£17 range I suspect, depending on time taken and how much value I pack in. I will endeavour to make it at user friendly as possible – I am conscious I can do a bit too much ‘stat dumping’ at times!

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Anyway, the purpose of this article is for my own use as much as anything else. 🙂 Below is just a check list of all those factors I delve into (within Horse Race Base) when trying to unearth trends/stats for a big race.

I will record an over-the shoulder video of me following this process at some point, for one of those Cheltenham handicaps.

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CHECKLIST

  1. Open up the ‘big race concerned’. Found in Horse Race Base using the ‘Research’ tab, ‘Big Race Trends’ .
  2. Click ‘Profiler’ (work out how many renewals there have been, how many runners in total, and how many places have been available. This information gives vital context to the stats)

PROFILER (TRENDS)

  1. Previous Place
  2. Horse Age
  3. Days Since Run
  4. Horse Weight
  5. Horse Official Rating
  6. Season Runs
  7. Wins (Distance)
  8. Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
  9. Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
  10. Position In Market
  11. Odds

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  1. Click ‘Query’ Tab, once open, bottom right click ‘V4 beta’. Click ‘Breakdown’ and a whole new world opens!

QUERY – (OTHER STATS)

(Horse-Data)

  1. Origin of Horse
  2. Headgear
  3. Weight (excl J-Claim)
  4. Pos Wgts (ex Clm) – ordered position of weight carried by horse compared to competitors, excluding jockey claims.

 

  1. H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
  2. H – Run (career)
  3. H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
  4. H-Run (NH Race Type)
  5. H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 
  6. H- Run (track)
  7. H- Run (Track-NH Code)
  8. H-Run (Season)
  9. H-Run (Fences)

 

  1. H-Win (Career)
  2. H-Win (NH Race Type)
  3. H-Win (Hncp/Non)
  4. H-Win (Hcap NH)
  5. H-Win (Class)
  6. H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)
  7. H-Win (Season)
  8. H-Win (Track)
  9. H-Win (Track/NH Code)
  10. H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham

 

  1. Best In Three Runs
  2. Best In Five Runs
  3. H-Run (Last Win) (how many times horse has run since last winning or placing as below)
  4. H-Run (Last Placing)
  5. Class Move
  6. Distance Move
  7. Highest Class Run
  8. Highest Class Win

 

  1. H-Places (NH Race type)

(Horse Last Race Data)

  1. (LR)-last run – NH Race Type (ie in a chase ,how well do those that ran over hurdles last time out do)
  2. (LR) Hcap/Non
  3. (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
  4. (LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
  5. (LR) No. of Runners
  6. (LR) Track

(Trainer Data)

  1. Trainer

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I think that covers all of the factors that I go through with any ‘Big Race’ that has some kind of history. Thankfully not all factors, for every race, have any significance about them. But, collectively they help build up a profile. Once I have done that initial sift, I will look through to see what the handful of ‘killer stats’ are that I can start to use to draw up a shortlist.

As I said, I will record a video at some point going through the above for a particular race.

Right, I am going to print this off and keep it by my computer.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Having said y’day that video etc was not for me, I’d like to see you use HRB as it is one of those sites where one doesn’t know where to start- and investigating it is so time absorbing, with little chance of real benefit, that I’ve never pursued it.

    Chris 07/01/16 5:07 PM Reply


  • Chris who runs hrb does videos also http://theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/ is where alot of hrb members go. I use hrb and would not be without it. Worth it’s weight in gold and continues to get better. Does take a bit of getting used to so my advice is spend a weekend playing with it. Free trial available.

    james 07/01/16 5:48 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh….The big race trends facility in HRB is very good even if you just look at the profiler trends….and I am aware of the V4 query tool to look for other useful trends….but I must admit you’ve given me some nice ideas of other potentially useful areas to dig for trends….thank you very much. Looking forward to the video Josh since I use HRB a lot.

    Best

    Martin

    Martin 07/01/16 6:23 PM Reply


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