Members Report: 04/01/15 (COMPLETE)

IMPORTANT: Just a reminder for anyone new, that the daily ‘Members Reports’ are updated by 10am at the latest, Monday-Friday, 11am weekends. I try and post system selections up the evening before and any Tips that I may have time to find. But, if you read the posts after 10am during the week you will know they are complete. 

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TIP 

1.20 Muss 

Itstimeforapint – 1 point win – 4/1 (general) 

Art Lord – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) 

 

4/1 seemed fair to me for the only horse in the race who is proven in all race conditions. He won over CD LTO and looks sure to go well again. I am assuming the jockey has lost his claim since he last won on him, so he is effectively 9lbs higher. That may stop him – or at least makes him vulnerable to others with more in hand – but this is only his 10th chase start and he is still open to improvement. He can make the odd blunder but he did it well the last day and a repeat of that sees him go close here, against plenty of horse who have questions to answer. 

Art Lord – an interesting horse doing something different – he goes ‘over a trip’ for the first time. The way he ran here two starts ago over 2m4f would suggest that this should suit him. Plenty of his sires offspring stay this far and his dam is also that of Vic Canvas, who stays longer than the…well you know the rest. He is 10, but this is only his 11th chase start (1/10) and the trainer is 1/5, 3 places at the track to date. I was happy to take a chance at 9s. He usually races prominently, as does the one above, and I like that in general,and even more so at a track like this. 

The rest have plenty to prove. Benenden is interesting and maybe 9/2 is ok in context of this race for one so unexposed and who looks sure to relish the step up in trip. He should come on for that last run. But, he has to go and win a chase, and he is usually held up – I don’t think the leaders will be coming back to him here, which means, much like Don Cossack, he will have to pick up speed to catch those in front. He will have to be a good jumper and that could lead to errors – it could not of course. A big run would be no shock but his isnt the kind of profile I like to back in chases too often, not at that kind of price anyway. Art lord has a similar profile, albeit he has won a chase, and was twice the price. 

Ballyben – all his form is on good. It is good to soft here, but there is soft in places. I think the ground may be against him, but if there is more ‘good’ than ‘soft’ he has the ability, hncp mark, and class to win this. He arguably needs a tad further and is 0/3, 1 place RH over fences – he may find this test sharp enough and get outpaced turning in for home, while trying to stay on at end, if ground is ok. Eiri Na Casca – He does have a chase win to his name on good over 2m6f – ground a slight question as is his stamina. The jockey is 8/177 over fences, which is also a bit off-putting. Enough to prove albeit I can’t think he has been sent over here just for the experience. The rest have plenty to prove, a few of them fitness. Mr Supreme for example – his trainer is 3/68, 9 places with all horses returning after a break of 365+ days. Happy to take that type on- if he was race fit he could win this. 

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TODAY’S STATS/ANGLES 

(reminder that these are not ‘tips’, more horses of interest, usually at a decent price, that have some interesting stats which may suggest they could run a decent race. These are pointers for you to use in your own analysis if you wish.  I have only looked at the horse mentioned, not other runners in the race etc) 

1.50 Muss 2.25 MUSS – John Williams 14/1 (general) / Tomahawk Wood 33/1 (general) – a couple of decent priced pokes here. John Williams goes for A M Thompson who is 5/18, 8 places with his handicap hurdlers here – or was when I put stats guide together before season started – of interest is also the fact that he is 2/9, 4 places with his handicap debutants in last two years (thanks geegeez gold for that one). He is also in cracking form – 6/16 in the last 30 days, 3/7, 6 places in last two weeks. I am quite excited about his chance and he could run a very bold race. No concerns with the jockey, he has enough wins on the board from rides to suggest he knows what he is doing. Interesting. The latter is more of a poke. Trainer is/was 3/10, 5 places with handicap hurdlers here. On his first try at this sort of trip LTO he floundered a bit, but it is possible he did not like the heavy ground and/or the track. At the prices, given this is good to soft, soft in places, he also looks interesting. He may be a ‘name your price’ horse on Betfair Exchange. I have had a small dabble on both.

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

January Trainers 

1.35 Lud – Monetary Fund (any odds)

2.10 Lud – Ink Master 

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That is all for today, signing off 09.39

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Peter Nivens Sam Fairyann in the 3.30 at Musselburgh.Doesn’t have many winners but then again not too many runners.Has best record there esp nhf.might be worth a small interest

    gerry 03/01/16 7:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Gerry….

      P D Nivens doesn’t have many runners but it does seem that Musselburgh is a track that he targets to great effect.

      NH/Musselburgh/2010+ : 35 runners/ 8 winners/ 56.86 BF_PL/ 22.9% SR

      And as you mention he excels with his NH flat runners….

      NH Flat: 90 runners/11 winners/18.17 BF_PL/12.2% SR
      1st run in a NH Flat race: 48 runners/8 winners/49.14 BF_PL/16.7% SR
      With Jockey B Hughes: 22 runners/5 winners/2 BF_PL/22.7% SR
      @ Musselburgh: 13 runners/4 winners/56.09 Bf_PL/30.7% SR
      Age 5: 30 runners/4 winners/30.1 BF_PL/13.3% SR
      Number of runners (10 – 14): 51 runners/6 winners/25.19 BF_PL/11.7% SR

      Currently around 6/1 mark so maybe worth a small nibble.

      He also has an interesting runner in the 3.00 Blades Lad….

      Best

      Martin

      Martin 04/01/16 12:22 AM Reply


      • Cheers gents, good stats there. Have had a small dabble on both of his. GL

        Josh Wright 04/01/16 9:41 AM Reply


        • Hi Josh….thanks for the comment re the stats….I was a bit worried that you would mind me doing a bit of a ‘stats dump’ (for want of another phrase) on your blog.

          Ironically if you’ve picked up the Geegeez email today, with Irish pointers to follow, there is one running today in the 3.30 Musselburgh….Misfits (Lucinda Russell) widely available at 7s at the moment.

          Best

          Martin

          Martin 04/01/16 10:15 AM Reply


          • I enjoy comments like that, makes the blog more interesting for readers, and I do like trainer stats!! I found them interesting to read. As long as there is some reasoning (anything!) for any horse that people comment about, then feel free.

            Yes have had a quick flick through – I dont have the time or inclination to focus on another set of horses (ie ex pointers) albeit interesting info if I am playing in a 3m+ hncp chase and there is one. Always interesting to follow a few through their careers etc. Will keep an eye on Misfits.

            Josh Wright 04/01/16 10:21 AM Reply


  • Martin,thanks for adding bit of flesh,Did both his runners to small stakes.The jockey booking for John Wlliams would temper my confidence in an otherwise good opportunity 0/18 at course

    gerry 04/01/16 11:32 AM Reply


    • Cheers Gerry…pity about the outcome of both races….only saw the 3.00 Musselburgh and actually Blades Lad didn’t run too badly imo and was in contention 2/3 out from home…but a bit of scruffy jumping at the end put pay to his chances (not mentioning 4th last when Hughes did well to stay on).

      Best

      Martin

      Martin 04/01/16 6:43 PM Reply


      • That is racing, days like this make us enjoy the good ones more! John Williams didnt run much of a race, the other looked like getting involved turning for home but his effort was short lived. A line through today.

        Josh Wright 04/01/16 6:48 PM Reply


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