Weekly Diary: 21-27/12/15

This post is a work in progress…

RESULTS 

WEEK…

Micro Systems 

December Trainers – 1/3 = +0.5 

Jumps Handicappers – 1/8 = -4 

Week Total = 2/11 = -3.5 

TIPs/Big Race Previews 

‘TIPS’ 

0/2, 1 place = +0.8 

Big Race Previews (trends/stats as starting point) 

2/5 = +13.75 

Week Total = 2/7, 3 places (paid a return) = +14.55 

 

***

RUNNING TOTAL

Micro Systems (all, start of Aug onwards) = +87.3 

BRP/TIPS (start Oct) = +41.05 

Portfolio Total = +128.35 

***

Some random stats….

A couple of days ago I was pulling together my latest article for The Betting Insiders Club Members Report. I was looking at stats for 2m7f+ chases, Oct-April, Class 1-3, 33/1 or under. This report is exclusive to their members however I spent some time, by mistake, researching stats without the ‘distance’ setting. I did not include these but have simply repeated them below.

All stats from the start of 2010, Class 1-3, All handicap chases, 33/1<, Oct-April…

It is a random assortment but you may get some use out of them. One of the jockey’s Tom Bellamy, won on Ziga Boy yesterday…

TRAINER/ 1st LAST TIME OUT

  • M A Barnes: 14 bets / 6 wins / 8 places / 42.86% SR / +44.33 SP / AE 2.9
  • N P Mulholland: 18 bets / 7 wins / 9 places / 38.89% SR / +24.57 SP / AE 1.74
  • T George: 70 bets / 17 wins / 30 places / 24.29% SR / +23.7 SP / AE 1.32
  • Harry Fry: 12 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 41.67% SR / +23.16 SP / AE 2.73
  • M Todhunter: 11 bets / 3 wins / 7 places / 27.27% SR / +16.5 SP / AE 1.55
  • T D Easterby: 12 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 33.33% SR / +16.5 SP / AE 2.52
  • G L Moore: 32 bets / 9 wins / 15 places / 28.13% SR / +11.8 SP / AE 1.54
  • Daniel Skelton: 27 bets / 7 wins / 14 places / 25.93% SR / +7.03 SP / AE 1.38

 

TRAINER/1st LAST TIME OUT/UNPLACED PENULTIMATE START

  • M Jefferson: 17 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / 35.29% SR / +15 SP / AE 1.78
  • G Moore: 14 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 35.71% SR / +15.75 SP / AE 2.29
  • Daniel Skelton: 18 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 27.78% SR / +5.78 SP / AE 1.29
  • O Sherwood: 14 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 28.57% SR / +15.25 SP / AE 1.7
  • A J Honeyball: 8 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 37.5% SR / +4 SP / AE 1.6

 

TRAINER/NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE

  • N J Gifford: 18 bets / 4 wins / 9 places / 22.22% SR / +26.5 SP / AE 2.06
  • A King: 79 bets / 19 wins / 36 places / 24.05% SR /+24.43 SP / AE 1.39
  • Fergal O’Brian: 26 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 19.23% SR / +24 SP / AE 1.39
  • Miss E C Lavelle: 31 bets / 8 wins / 14 places / 25.81% SR / +12.66 SP / AE 1.31
  • Daniel Skelton: 23 bets / 5 wins / 11 places / 21.74% SR / +11.53 SP / AE 1.2

 

TRAINER/HEAVY GROUND

  • R Lee (now Kerry): 49 bets / 12 wins / 23 places / 24.49% SR / +35.06 SP / AE 1.66
  • A King: 23 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 21.74% SR / +31.88 SP / AE / 1.33
  • G L Moore: 28 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 17.86% SR / +29.5 SP /AE 1.36
  • M J Jefferson: 24 bets / 6 wins / 11 places / 25% SR / +21.25 SP / AE 2.03
  • Miss V Williams: 142 bets / 29 wins / 56 places / 20.42% SR / +20.76 SP / AE 1.15
  • D McCain: 53 bets / 13 wins / 20 places / 24.53% SR / +15.58 SP / AE 1.4

***

EYE-CATCHERS 

I will have a look at some eye catchers from the week when I get a chance. In general they have been doing well and have highlighted a few horses that have won on their next couple of starts…Cardinal Rose (won 5/1 next race), Pearl Legend (8/1, won 2 races after highlighting), Ziga Boy (5/1, won 2 races after highlighting). I missed the first two so best to track them yourself if you wish! 🙂 (although not missed intentionally) 

Most of those I am going to mention below have been’tipped’ in the last week and for one reason or another are worth keeping an eye on…

Harry The Viking – a frustrating horse who is very one paced. He bumped into one horse again who was equally suited to race conditions. He has no gears and needs a slog in the mud for me, and to out stay rivals who may not handle conditions. Maybe they will find a race for him but he does struggle to win. He needs a race like at Haydock, but with no Rigadin De Beauchene type horse in opposition. 

Fine Parchment – joined the list of veterans I have backed this season and not collected on. While he has won on Heavy I think the ground went against him – he has decent form on Good. Yes he is 12 now but they must be persisting with him for a reason. That return at Sandown, in a decent Veteran’s Chase, showed great promise. He wants better ground I suspect and he does like to lead. You wouldnt want to back him in a race with any unexposed types in, but it will be interesting if they can find a race for him. 

Kings Apollo – it was a weak C3 that he won, to prove his class to an extent. The front two clearly handled conditions best and that is important. We now know he can go well in an absolute bog. His front running style, and ability to get away around a track with easier fences, like Taunton, will ensure he wins a few more in his career. It looks like he definitely needs to be up there and leading at some point, to run his race. The light weight helped in that ground, and that is another thing to bear in mind. He could go in again soon, in a similar race, in similar conditions. 

Belmount – was pulled up at Newbury. I can only thing something went amiss, psychical or mental. He was jumping and travelling oh so well as they headed out onto the final circuit – I was getting excited as it looked likely, even at that early stage, that he was going to be there at the finish. Then, it was like a switch had been flicked. All of a sudden he couldnt jump and he wasnt travelling – eventually being pulled up. I am not sure what the issue was, or if there was one, but not a horse to give up on just yet. That was only his 5th chase start. 

Wild Bill – he ran well in 3rd at Doncaster, in the race where we also backed the winner, Ziga Boy. Maybe he was held up a bit too far, and/or he just wasnt as good as the two in front of him – whether he can be that good we shall see. There is still plenty of time on his side, but he may need his sights lowered. Evan Williams is a good placer of his horses I think and he will find chases for him. It looks like he may want decent ground, but that is not conclusive. He jumped well here but just could not quicken to get near the front two. 

Godsmejudge – returned to form in Wild Bill’s race above. This was nice to see as he was previously a decent staying chaser for Alan King – a Scottish National winner. On that basis it was safe to assume this test was a bit too sharp. He wants a trip and he wants good ground. He could be interesting in the spring. His new trainer is now 7/23, 10 places +33 points with all chasers over trips of 24f+. He is 0/5, 0 places over 27f+ to date, but he can clearly train chasers and I suspect they may have a few targets in mind for him. It was good to see him back, and it will not be easy to dismiss him in the right conditions, given his back class and this return to form. 

Ziga Boy – he won the above race in impressive fashion – one of those wins where you curse for not having more than 1 point on. He couldnt have done this any better. It definitely looks like he is best on good/good to soft – or at least doesnt like it really heavy. His best form has also now been on flatter tracks, which is something else to keep in mind. He should follow this win up and could move up the ranks, albeit he may not offer much value on his next couple of starts. One to keep an eye on, especially in the spring and even more so if most tracks start riding very soft, given the weather. 

Katachenko – was a qualifier for the McCain micro system for December – he ran well in second, getting out-paced before running on. He looks like he needs a bit further than 2m to my eye. There was a single front runner and they may have gone a bit of a crawl. So, he probably needs a strongly run 2m race, or 2m4f as a minimum. He is unexposed, jumped well and this was a decent contest, despite the small field. They were decent enough horses around him. One to keep an eye on for McCain. 

That Last Samuri – won for us well at Kempton – despite not really liking the track and being outpaced at times. A stiff, galloping track looks to be right up his street and he is clearly going the right way. He looks like he could stay a fair bit further on this evidence. His form ties in with Wakanda and they are two young chasers going places. He jumping was brilliant, especially when he had to up the pace to chase down the leader. This will  stand him in good stead in some decent contests and he may well be a National Horse at some point. 

Barton Gift – ran well in 3rd to get us place money at Market Raisen. I think the ground was probably a bit too soft and I am not sure how strong this race was. Having said that he has won on soft so it is hard to judge. He did battle for the lead at times, and could have done too much up front maybe, but he jumped well enough and kept going. He stays well, and on slightly better ground, at a low enough level, is one to keep an eye on. If he is able to get an easy lead that would be a big positive. This was a return to some form given his previous two runs. West Of The Edge won this race and is now 2/11 over fences. He is unexposed and cruised into this, staying really well. The race looked to be truly run and given connections he may be underestimated next time. Soft or worse and this kind of test is clearly up his street. 

***

Cue Card – Out stayed and out jumped (bar the last) Vautour and just got up. Brennan suggested he was running on fumes and I don’t know if he will stay the GC trip. I couldnt say with confidence that he wont stay, given he looks a different horse this year and there are a few unknowns. He is in the form of his life. It could all depend on race tactics and how many front runners are in the race. No Coneygree, SC may miss this having disappointed again and not liking Cheltenham, Vautour may head elsewhere. It could just be an even pace say, and as such that would help CC. I would be worried about Vautour’s stamina for GC given Ruby was able to dictate the latter 3rd of this race and go his own pace. Yes there were a few little errors but he was just out-stayed I think. 

Don Cossack – was outpaced at times and hated the track. The mistake came from having to chase leaders and up the tempo. He may have won if he had jumped the second last, we shall never know. He does look like a Gold Cup horse and Cheltenham will suit better than this test. But, his jumping at pace, would be a concern. He made a couple of errors at Cheltenham last year and did so again here – well one big error. He usually is held up in mid division or further back so will always rely on the leaders coming back or him having to go faster. That is always dangerous and does leave him with a couple of questions. Elliot may find a weak-ish race in Ireland again which he will probably win at 1/6 or something – but that may not help for Cheltenham. I am still to be convinced about what he has truly beaten for one reason or another – but was going to be right in the mix here, and he clearly has the class! 

***

That is all for this week. 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

3 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • thanks josh

    where it says unplaced does it have to be out of the first 6 to be deemed unplaced or first 4

    ant 1 year ago Reply


  • so the stats relate to any distance ?

    ant 1 year ago Reply


    • firstly the random stats – yes, just all handicap chases, all distance, with those other rules.

      results – yes that isnt clear – I have only mentioned places that we got paid on – so when I advised an EW bet and the horse placed and we won something. When I update the full table at start of next month, I will record all their finishing positions against advised stakes etc.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


Post A Reply