A few stats pointers today. A reminder that these are no longer ‘tips’ as such (which the old Shortlist could be considered to be) but more some stats to help with your own analysis, and a way for me to add more value to these daily posts. I would always advise looking at the horses themselves, and the races they are in, before departing with any money, but that is up to you! I have not looked at the opposition in much depth, only the horses highlighted.It may be that over-time it will pay well to just follow these stats picks but the evidence is not there yet to make that decision.
3.20 Chelm – Excellent Guest – 10/1 – the form of the yard initially caught the eye, 3/7, 4 places in the last 14 days. This horse ran well behind a winner for the blog last time out, Forceful Appeal. He came from the back off a slow pace, and had to challenge very wide, circling the field. The way he was vigorously ridden suggests to me they expected a bold run. Boonga Roogeta and the Johnston horse may ensure there is more pace in here, the former dangerous if able to dictate – but she isnt quite firing just yet, finishing tamely for me LTO. He will need some luck, and doesnt win too often, but there are a few positives there if the leaders come back and he can come through the field.
4.55 Chelm – Sylvette – 7/1 (bet365, 6/1 general) – Varian is 6/17, 10 places with his handicappers here, and is 7/20, 11 places in the last 30 days. This horse is having her second run after over a year off, gets cheekpieces and steps up massively in trip, which the breeding suggests could be interesting. There are reasons to expect a better run than LTO.
5.25 Chelm – Brigantian – 10/1 (general) – Simcock is 10/25, 14 places with his handicappers here to date, 10/53, 19 places with handicap debutants in the last 2 years, and 3/5, 4 places when Spencer rides for him here, in handicaps. The trainer is 3/8, 6 places in last 2 weeks. This horse takes a step up in trip which should suit. Interesting.
7.10 Wolvs – Hickster – 7/2 (general) – At the shorter end of the market this horse is developing a liking for this CD, now 4/9, 6 places. He won last time when able to dictate from the front and having looked at the pace it looks like he could get an easy lead again if he wants it. He is only 4 and could still be open to improvement. If he can lead, save energy, and then kick, he should run his race.
As always, if you have any fancies you dont mind sharing, do post a comment with a few words as to why etc. Some of you have a habit of finding decent priced winners!
1.10 Ling Bawden Rocks (14/1<)
2.40 Ling Anda De Grissay (12/1<)
That is all for today. Signing off 09.30. Good Luck