Members Report 19/12/15 (COMPLETE + TIPS)

I have had chance to have a good look at the two big chases from Haydock and Ascot. I may be going mad with a couple of risky ones, but the odds allow it for me, you may disagree of course!…

 

TIPS

2.40 Haydock 

Cloudy Too – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) 

He is a horse I have been tracking for some time as he does enjoy a slog in heavy ground. I have backed him a few times in recent months without much success and this is no doubt a risky bet, given his form. But, I think 9s allows that chance. Quite simply, if he cant run well in heavy ground at Haydock then he has lost his way and I dare sat I wont be on next time he pops up. He has course form, is a perfect 2/2  on heavy, he stays and the trainer is in decent form. He is 5/13 in chases with field sizes of 1-11, 0/7, 1 place 12+. It is possible that he handles conditions better than anything else in here and has also come a long way down the handicap. There are no excuses and I am happy to take the chance. The market has been a good guide with him and if he drifts much beyond 9/1 the race could be over before it has started. 

There are a few trends for this but nothing that stands out too much. All winners have been 8 or under to date but only 13 9 year olds have tried, one placing. 

3.00 Ascot 

Katenko – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) 

No real trends of note for this race. This is clearly a risky bet and maybe his price is an indication that not much is expected. But, knowing the yard, he will surely be fit enough to do himself justice here. If, and it is an if, he ran anywhere near his best form, he would run like a 5/1 shot. Clearly he has had his issues but there have been enough glimpses to suggest ability remains. The yard remain in good form and I just could not let him go off at this price. It may be clear early that it is a wasted bet but at those odds, again, I am happy to take the chance. When backing horses at these prices more will run bad races than good ones, but you dont need many to go in over time to do fine. 

It is hard to make an overly compelling case for much else, albeit if Pendra doesnt mind a slog he could make 13/2 look generous. I dont know where on the spectrum between soft and good this ground will be, but if it is genuinely soft he does have that to prove over this distance. But he won well LTO and if he can build on that will go close. If The Young Master’s jockey can get him jumping he would have a chance. But, with this jockey, when not riding around the Grand National fences, that can be an if. Wakanda is the other I like and he could lead them here. But, he is a small horse and this is his first chase run going right handed – which is an unknown. He still looks to be progressive and if he does jump the first few fences well, and gets into a rhythm he could go well.

All in here have some question or other to answer and there could well be a surprise.  

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BIG RACE PREVIEW 

3.35 Ascot – Ladbroke Hurdle 

Renetti – 1 pt EW – 14/1 (BV) 12/1 (general)

Galizzi – 1 pt EW – 25/1 (BV/PP/Coral)

(at the prices Zarib is the other I fear and I suspect he will run a big race) There could also be  5 places available with some bookies in the morning and should think these prices will stay steady, but you never know. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

12.05 Ling – Hearmenow (7/1<)

12.15 Newc- Askamore Darsi (14/1<)

1.45 Ling – Manhattan Skyline (7/1<)

2.25 Asct – Reve De Sivola (12/1<)

Jumps Handicappers 

3.00 Asct – The Giant Bolster – (14/1<)

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Thats all for today. Signing off 11.11. Good Luck 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • Juicy Plums thinks the same Josh – Best of Luck

    Jo 19/12/15 8:17 AM Reply


    • Hi Jo, yes I did read Nick’s email after posting and hopefully that is a positive! He is a good value judge in these big races.

      Josh Wright 19/12/15 11:40 AM Reply


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