Members Report: 17/12/15 (complete)

I am posting this at 01.26 after a rather arduous 7 hour journey to Dartmouth from my home near Newmarket. I am here for for a good friend’s ‘passing out’ ceremony (which is from 9am) from the Navy and as such the systems will be the only content tomorrow. I am just about to post up some trends for Saturday and I will be looking at the Ladbroke Hurdle for my Daily Punt blog post. There are what I would call some ‘killer stats’ which will hopefully help highlight the winner- or help you find the winner. There should be some more content up here for Friday’s racing and for Saturday. 

I think the issues with the blog may now finally be resolved but we shall see ( I was unable to post the below earlier before I left) 

***

Handy Andy near enough halved in price and like a lot of his recent runs went well for the first circuit before fading. It was worth chancing at the odds but I cant see myself backing him again. Its A Steal touched 5s before drifting back out near the off which turned out to be a negative. He travelled into it well enough and looked promising at one stage before simply plugging on. Whether he needed the run and/or just wasnt good enough to get closer I am not sure. The winner is clearly going places over fences and looks likely to match or better some decent hurdles form. I though he was short enough at 9/2 this morning and that he may be found for jumping experience in a big field, but he was too classy for them. Red Devils Lad looks like he has improved again, taking them on at a decent pace. He will no doubt come on a tad for the run and when going left handed looks like a handicap chaser to keep onside, especially if able to dominate. Rebecca Curtis is starting to fire now, and Pipe/Scudamore are now 5/16, 9 places in handicaps in the last 14 days. Back to form after a dodgy November. 

I am still struggling for a bit of consistency in these 3m+ chases/tips but will continue to work to improve that. Th shortlisting is working well enough in my own mind, but a couple more winners over last few weeks would have been useful. Onwards. 

 ***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

2.20 Exet – Delores Delightful (12/1< – guide,has had a ‘big winner’ previously)

Jumps Handicappers 

2.10 Tow – Golan Dancer (14/1<) 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh
    I have noticed quite frequently the highest priced in a field winning, and given the bigger price available on Betfair I am tempted to place the minimum on all races to see if can create a profit.
    Have you got any stats which show this might be worth pursuing?
    Regards

    MICHAEL 17/12/15 12:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Michael

      I am not sure if you mean betting the longest price horse in EVERY race each day but if thats the case you will lose a lot of money. Stats for NH racing in 2015 were

      Bets Wins Win% Races P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc)
      4305 109 2.53 3616 -1454.65 -33.79 1100.57 0.11 10.29 -584.85

      Now if you layed them all, thats a different matter, unfortunately you have to have a huge bank to cover the occassional 40-1 shot that pays 200.00 at BSP

      The stats for A/W and Flat are similar or even worse…life isn’t that simple unfortunately

      Steve V 17/12/15 1:40 PM Reply


      • Thanks Steve, most helpful.

        MICHAEL 17/12/15 3:29 PM Reply


  • Example of the above just happened, Exeter 2.50 Long John, was 11’s generally, longest odds of the field, not sure about Betfair SP but probably higher.

    MICHAEL 17/12/15 2:59 PM Reply


    • You only notice it when there are a few strung together, when they only win at a 2.5% clip there are dozens of races in between one popping up.

      Steve V 17/12/15 3:44 PM Reply


  • MICHAEL, The horse in question paid 13.5 on betfair SP, That is 12.5/1 and after allowing for 5% comm, it was 19.5% higher than bookmakers odds.

    Allan 17/12/15 3:50 PM Reply


Post A Reply