Well it was nice to get a winner on the board who did somewhat bolt up, having got the ‘Hugh Taylor Treatment’ – of course us shrewdies were on long before he was tipped by the great man! 🙂 My focus on ‘horse profiles’ in the next 12 months will primarily be on ‘class/ratings droppers’ and he was as good a demonstration as you are going to get. Those type of horses exist on the flat, over jumps and on the all-weather. You just have to find them, and there is no easy way to do that bar clicking through a lot of horses in HRB, which I need to start doing again.
Anyway, I am more annoyed that I missed ‘Nigel Twiston Davies’ Day at Leicester. Two 8/1 winners. Bugger. I won’t dwell on them, but in future if I have looked at a race and leave it I will leave my comments out of it, not to muddy the waters. His stable is only predictable between September-November, where he has his string fitter than most and targets the right races. From then on in it is just educated guess work, fluctuating between hot and cold spells until next September time! I thought he was cold, clearly not! Hopefully some stats guide users may have ignored me and had one or both!
I have pulled together a trends/stats piece for the December meeting from Cheltenham. That post is on the home page in usual place. Hopefully something of interest there for those of you who like such things.
Denali Highway – 1 point win – 9/2 (BetFred/BV/WH) 3rd 5/1
DH is also a system bet but from now on if I like a system bet that is in ‘tipping territory’ (3m+ chases) I will put them up here. I have backed him twice, once last night as a system bet at 11/2, and again this morning at 5s (price went as I was writing post) 9/2 is still fair.
He ticks a lot of boxes in a race with a lot of poor types who have plenty to prove. All race conditions are fine for this horse and he is 2/3, 3 places when dropping into C4. The trainer is red hot at the moment and she is 5/15, 7 places with her handicap chasers at the track. He has plenty going for him. The only niggle I think is the ‘bounce’ – second run back after a long break. You can’t tell until they run if that will affect them but I will take that chance – confident that if today is not the day, he will be winning races again soon.
The fav is 0/5, 0 places LH but he was going to win emphatically RH LTO, in what was probably a poor race. He needs to step up but could be thereabouts – but he is short enough. The NTD horse is interesting, although his record with hncp chasers here could be better. But, he steps up in trip and gets headgear – they could work for a horse that is currently 0/11 in career (inc points) – something to prove but I have seen worse 8/1 shots.
The rest I am happy to take on for one reason or another. There are a few unexposed ones but not many have won a chase in here so the selections experience should count for a lot.
One for the Notebook…Ravens Brook looks like a potential class dropper – he is 2/2 in C5 handicaps (0/9, c4) and 2/4, 3 places OR100< (0/7, 0 places above). One to track.
Follow The Tracks – 16/1 (SkyB, Lad, SJ) 14/1 general UP
My jaw dropped at this horse being this price and you can’t let what seems like obvious value pass you by! B Barr is 3/9 with his handicap hurdlers here – he doesnt have a big string but this looks to be one of his target tracks. This horse is responsible for two of those wins (2/4,3 places track over slightly further) and ran well for a long way LTO before tiring, his first run in 176 days. All race conditions are fine, bar class. He has only had two runs in C4, and bolted up in some C5 races. Given his profile he could improve for this level.
The jockey booking is also interesting – Crosse is 5/13, 6 places on Barr’s hurdlers and in itself that is a mini micro angle probably worth following.
All in all, 16s looked like an insult to me and anything above 10/1 could well look decent come 12.45. He is an exciting outsider, that for me has a live chance.
Action Master is also in the race (name your price BFSP) for Charlie Mann who is also 3/9 with handicap hurdlers here. He has no recent form, looks out of sorts and is up against it. But he is 33s. Have I had a muggy £5 at BFSP – yes.
Boonga Roogeta – 13/2 (general)
This horse’s trainer (that is easier to write than his name!) has a decent record with handicapper here already and everything looks primed for a big run. 13/2, and outsider of the field, is also an insult on what she has done to date. She is 3/9 in AW handicaps and in all handicaps is 4/8, 5 places over this trip. and is 4/6 when dropping into C4 – 3/19 class 3 and above. She does have a touch of class and is down to a good mark. She should also be able to dominate from the front I think if the jockey wants to. On what they have done on the track to date, she has the best chance here for me. There are a few unexposed ones in here but they have it to prove in handicap company and are not much of a price. We should get a run for our money.
OF INTEREST…the 2.10 Taunton isnt a race I would tip in, and I have no ‘stats way in’ but, at 12/1 Somerset Lias is interesting. Mainly because I remember the trainer’s interview after one of his bolted up at Ludlow at 14/1 (that I discarded last from my shortlist) After that he described how his small string had all come to life in the matter of a few days and ‘were bouncing’. I found that interesting and I think his runners are worth as second glance in next few weeks, starting with this one. His speed fig is also very good as are his two most recent runs. He looks to have an EW chance. But, this is as much ‘gut instinct’ as anything else, I HAVE NOT looked at the other runners in the race.
All tips/shortlists now complete
12.50 New – Ubaltique (14/1<)* UP
*this one has a bit of a ‘profile’ in that in handicaps he is 2/3 when OR120<; and 2/4, 4 places when top-weight (11-12) suggesting he likes dropping to a level when he can outclass them. Interesting.
Nick Williams has a handicap runner (only ‘follow’ non handicappers) but his string could not be in better form: 3/8, 4 places last 14 days. I think all his runners probably worth a second glance. 3.00 War – Brise Coeur is the horse.
Notes just for info!
12.50 Newc- Nautical Twilight (12/1<) WON 7/2>3/1
1.20 Newc – Redkalani (12/1<) UP 9/1>5/1
1.40 Taunt – Ourmanmassini (20/1<) UP 12/1>7/1
2.30 War – Denali Highway (12/1<) 3rd 5/1