Members Report: 10/12/15 (COMPLETE)

Well it was nice to get a winner on the board who did somewhat bolt up, having got the ‘Hugh Taylor Treatment’ – of course us shrewdies were on long before he was tipped by the great man! ūüôā My focus on ‘horse profiles’ in the next 12 months will primarily be on ‘class/ratings droppers’ and he was as good a demonstration as you are going to get. Those type of horses exist on the flat, over jumps and on the all-weather. You just have to find them, and there is no easy way to do that bar clicking through a lot of horses in HRB, which I need to start doing again.¬†

Anyway, I am more annoyed that I missed ‘Nigel Twiston Davies’ Day at Leicester. Two 8/1 winners. Bugger. I won’t dwell on them, but in future if I have looked at a race and leave it I will leave my comments out of it, not to muddy the waters. His stable is only predictable between September-November, where he has his string fitter than most and targets the right races. From then on in it is just educated guess work, fluctuating between hot and cold spells until next September time! I thought he was cold, clearly not! Hopefully some stats guide users may have ignored me and had one or both!¬†

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I have pulled together a trends/stats piece for the December meeting from Cheltenham. That post is on the home page in usual place. Hopefully something of interest there for those of you who like such things. 

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TIP

2.30 Warwick 

Denali Highway – 1 point win – 9/2 (BetFred/BV/WH) 3rd 5/1

DH is also a system bet but from now on if I like a system bet that is in ‘tipping territory’ (3m+ chases) I will put them up here. I have backed him twice, once last night as a system bet at 11/2, and again this morning at 5s (price went as I was writing post) 9/2 is still fair.¬†

He ticks a lot of boxes in a race with a lot of poor types who have plenty to prove. All race conditions are fine for this horse and he is 2/3, 3 places when dropping into C4. The trainer is red hot at the moment and she is 5/15, 7 places with her handicap chasers at the track. He has plenty going for him. The only niggle I think is the ‘bounce’ – second run back after a long break. You can’t tell until they run if that will affect them but I will take that chance – confident that if today is not the day, he will be winning races again soon.¬†

The fav is 0/5, 0 places LH but he was going to win emphatically RH LTO, in what was probably a poor race. He needs to step up but could be thereabouts Рbut he is short enough. The NTD horse is interesting, although his record with hncp chasers here could be better. But, he steps up in trip and gets headgear Рthey could work for a horse that is currently 0/11 in career (inc points) Рsomething to prove but I have seen worse 8/1 shots. 

The rest I am happy to take on for one reason or another. There are a few unexposed ones but not many have won a chase in here so the selections experience should count for a lot. 

One for the Notebook…Ravens Brook looks like a potential class dropper – he is 2/2 in C5 handicaps (0/9, c4) and 2/4, 3 places OR100< (0/7, 0 places above). One to track.¬†

Good Luck 

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THE SHORTLIST 

12.40 Taunton 

Follow The Tracks Р16/1 (SkyB, Lad, SJ) 14/1 general  UP

My jaw dropped at this horse being this price and you can’t let what seems like obvious value pass you by! B Barr is 3/9 with his handicap hurdlers here – he doesnt have a big string but this looks to be one of his target tracks. This horse is responsible for two of those wins (2/4,3 places track over slightly further) and ran well for a long way LTO before tiring, his first run in 176 days. All race conditions are fine, bar class. He has only had two runs in C4, and bolted up in some C5 races. Given his profile he could improve for this level.

The jockey booking is also interesting – Crosse is 5/13, 6 places on Barr’s hurdlers and in itself that is a mini micro angle probably worth following.¬†

All in all, 16s looked like an insult to me and anything above 10/1 could well look decent come 12.45. He is an exciting outsider, that for me has a live chance. 

Action Master is also in the race (name your price BFSP) for Charlie Mann who is also 3/9 with handicap hurdlers here. He has no recent form, looks out of sorts and is up against it. But he is 33s. Have I had a muggy £5 at BFSP Рyes. 

 

5.40 Chelm 

Boonga Roogeta Р13/2 (general) 

This horse’s trainer (that is easier to write than his name!) has a decent record with handicapper here already and everything looks primed for a big run. 13/2, and outsider of the field, is also an insult on what she has done to date. She is 3/9 in AW handicaps and in all handicaps is 4/8, 5 places over this trip. and is 4/6 when dropping into C4 – 3/19 class 3 and above. She does have a touch of class and is down to a good mark. She should also be able to dominate from the front I think if the jockey wants to. On what they have done on the track to date, she has the best chance here for me. There are a few unexposed ones in here but they have it to prove in handicap company and are not much of a price. We should get a run for our money.¬†

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OF INTEREST…the 2.10 Taunton isnt a race I would tip in, and I have no ‘stats way in’ but, at 12/1 Somerset Lias is interesting. Mainly because I remember the trainer’s interview after one of his bolted up at Ludlow at 14/1 (that I discarded last from my shortlist) After that he described how his small string had all come to life in the matter of a few days and ‘were bouncing’. I found that interesting and I think his runners are worth as second glance in next few weeks, starting with this one. His speed fig is also very good as are his two most recent runs. He looks to have an EW chance. But, this is as much ‘gut instinct’ as anything else, I HAVE NOT looked at the other runners in the race.¬†

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All tips/shortlists now complete

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

12.50 New – Ubaltique (14/1<)* UP

*this one has a bit of a ‘profile’ in that in handicaps he is 2/3 when OR120<; and 2/4, 4 places when top-weight (11-12) suggesting he likes dropping to a level when he can outclass them. Interesting.¬†

Nick Williams has a handicap runner (only ‘follow’ non handicappers) but his string could not be in better form: 3/8, 4 places last 14 days. I think all his runners probably worth a second glance. 3.00 War – Brise Coeur is the horse.

Notes just for info! 

Jumps Handicappers 

12.50 Newc- Nautical Twilight (12/1<) WON 7/2>3/1

1.20 Newc – Redkalani (12/1<) UP 9/1>5/1

1.40 Taunt – Ourmanmassini (20/1<) UP 12/1>7/1

2.30 War – Denali Highway (12/1<) 3rd 5/1

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Bit of a case of seconditis for me today on the jumps.Lovely Job ran well but 2nd,muckloe roe beaten by stablemate and to add insult STD cruises up behind Milord which I backed.Have days like that,least they were in contention.Took 9/2 for Betameche now best priced 10/3,value sort of gone on that one

    gerry 09/12/15 7:41 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh.

    Itook the stat from you AW Profile Report about Luca Cumani having a 60% Stoke rate in all HCPs debutants at Kempton.

    5 bets / 3 wins

    Thank you for pointing me in the direction of a 25/1 winner.

    Steve 09/12/15 8:18 PM Reply


    • Well done Steve,was hoping someone picked him out. Was on my notepad and won’t comment as to whether I had a last minute dabble!!

      Josh Wright 09/12/15 11:41 PM Reply


    • As a postscript to Cryptic’s win in the 6:10 Kempton, have a look at the jockey’s form (Tom Queally) over the last three weeks. I picked up the following comment:

      Tom Queally on the All Weather.

      From the 18/11/15 his record reads…

      5-2-2-7-7-3-3-2-1-2-4-1-1-3-5-1-2-1-1

      6/19 SR 31.6%, 14pl

      Starting prices..5/1..33/1..4/1..20/1..9/1..16/1..7/1..4/1..14/1..6/1..14/1..13/2..6/4..8/1..12/1..4/1..6/5..25/1..11/2.

      Not bad at all and some nice eachway profits, oh yes, also, these have been for 19 different trainers!

      A jockey in red hot form worth following at the moment

      Stephen 09/12/15 11:49 PM Reply


      • Good stuff Steve, those stats from Paul Broadway I believe? He is certainly an in form jock to keep on board. I assume he may be staying here this winter which means there should be plenty of rides going. And interesting that he has ridden for quite a few different trainers. Looks like he could be the go to man when horse is primed and/or he has changed agent who is doing a much better job. That may transpire into more rides on the turf next year as well, so maybe Tom is back, after his post Frankel lull.

        Josh Wright 10/12/15 8:37 AM Reply


  • Backed Cryptic each way at 14/1 BOG. Was out all day yesterday and just found out it won at 25/1 !

    Thanks very much Josh.

    Andy 10/12/15 8:43 AM Reply


    • Super stuff. Those winners always the best, opening an account to see a pile of cash.

      Josh Wright 10/12/15 9:08 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Yes a super day for your guides yesterday, as for the last few days also.Unlike many of your members i haven’t got a problem with backing more than one in the race. I have done this since first purchasing the guides and it has served me well. Yesterday i had four good winners, plus plenty of losers of ofcourse, but the good priced winners pay for the losers. I simply use BFSP as many of the bets are double digit prices and you tend to click a few points doing it this way.My winners yesterday were 10.5, 9.97, 8.04 and 40.00 [ that was also Cryptic] plus your Tip ofcourse, nice one that. I am 67 years of age, enjoy a flutter and am making a nice little profit for the first time EVER! Really enjoy this blog, surely the BEST on the internet by far. Keep up the good work Josh and thankyou for all the hard work that you put into this venture.

    Allan 10/12/15 11:37 AM Reply


    • cheers Allan, glad you are getting lots of use, enjoyment, winners and profit out of them, which is what it is all about! Blimey, didnt realise Cryptic was that big on the exchange, happy days! Glad to be of service ūüôā (+all of your own hard work of course!)

      Josh Wright 10/12/15 2:20 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Thanks for all the work and input from you to-day. I was struggling to find anything, I am backing 13.40 Elkstone and your tips.

    Roy Bedford 10/12/15 12:02 PM Reply


  • nice win there for nautical twilight,had a little each way on the dunn horse in 12.40 so no harm done,think be lot of shock results today after all the rain

    gerry 10/12/15 1:07 PM Reply


    • yes indeed, gets me ahead for the day at this moment in time! No excuse for Follow The Tracks unless a lot softer than advertised before the rain arrived. But, he has placed form on soft and was able to dictate. Just didnt run very well albeit the first 2/3rd of race were exciting, and when I thought/hoped he was going to kick clear and pull away, he went backwards! Maybe he is not a C4 animal and suspect will be C5 NTO.

      Josh Wright 10/12/15 1:15 PM Reply


  • Definitely suit denali if he doesn’t bounce

    gerry 10/12/15 1:43 PM Reply


  • Fair Play To ya Allan!

    Jack 10/12/15 1:55 PM Reply


  • Got the nac super value at 4/1,i took 9/4 bog,happy days

    gerry 10/12/15 1:56 PM Reply


  • Well said Allan. You should never be afraid to back more than one in a race especially at the prices the guides throw up.
    Oh dear Josh i have just received an e/mail from you singing the praises of Cleeve Racing. These people appear to be a blind spot for Matt Bisogno and his excellent band of disciples. I cannot understand Matt,Josh,Nicky and others who have for several years sent a few e/mails a year out about the boys from Cleeve.I know Mr Watson has done some favours for Matt and is a decent man.However,take a look at some independent reviewers,some of which i have helped in the past. In 2012 Cleeve made 26pts profit,in 2013 they lost 65 pts profit plus subscriptions and in 2014 they lost 30.14 pts plus subscriptions. They disputed these figures but i can tell you the prices were based on availability of odds when selections were given out. To S.P they lost all three years. They refused to give the independent reviewer the selections in 2015 so i cannot comment on that year.
    I can comment on three festivals (they give special deals for big festivals) One Goodwood won money but the next two wiped out the profit. Be careful,check it out. Is it as good as Josh Wright? In my opinion it doesnt come close.

    Roddo 10/12/15 3:17 PM Reply


    • Hi Roddo..
      Fair comments – and thanks for that last sentence, much appreciated!
      Everything I send out of other people’s is in good faith – and yes this is a tough business, and yes without the likes of matt and the Cleeve chaps, and a few others – you would not know who I am, and to a point there would be no blog. They have helped me out, I am willing to do likewise…
      As with all services I promote there is a decent money back guarantee period and as always you are best paper trading and making a decision, and then betting smaller stakes. But, I admit it is on the more pricey end of services. I also take in good faith the results that they have shown me, and that I have seen.
      Your comment about checking any service out is wise and should always be done. As should a cautious approach when you first join. It would appear you know more than me – we shall see what the next year brings!

      And in the meantime, i will keep working to make this the best blog around! ūüėČ

      Josh Wright 10/12/15 3:34 PM Reply


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