Members Report 05/12/15 (COMPLETE)

A busy day ahead with 7 points spread across some Big Race Previews and one ‘Tip’. A reminder that a BRP usually looks at a ‘big race’and by that I mean one where I have used trends/stats as part of my analysis. A ‘Tip’ is usually a 3m+ handicap chase at this time of year, and a race I have just looked at in the ‘normal’ way. BRP invariably go for decent priced horses and i don’t need many of them to go in over time to do well. On this day last year I put up at 33/1 winner of the Becher and it could be too much to ask to do it again, but I shall try…

Woodford County has at least paid for the day. I don’t like to dwell on winners.(as opposed to my self critique/analysis when I put up losers,esp those that fall out back of TV and a horse on my shortlist bolts up at a big price!) He did what I expected him to do and he received a brilliant ride. The first two could be worth following over marathon trips from here on in. Halford had a winner for one of my AW micro systems and Tea For Two bolted up for Nick Williams. All in all a good day, but, there is never time to rest in the jumping game…

 

BIG RACE PREVIEWS 

1.40 Aintree 

Highland Lodge – 28/1 (BV/SJ/BetBright) 25/1 (general,was 33s PP but that just went) – 1 point EW

Portrait King – 16/1 (general)- 1 point EW

Someone check my temperature! I wont go through all of the trends and stats again here, you have seen them in a separate post. Safe to say, bar having more than the ideal runs in the last 90 days, Highland Lodge ticks every box going. Historically, he has a near perfect profile for this race. 

Now, were he still with Emma Lavelle I would have left him. He had lost his way and looked a bit disinterested. But, he did run his best race for some time LTO, albeit it wasnt the greatest. He has since changed yards and moved to a trainer who is 2/4, 4 places with stable newcomers recently and that change of scenery could work wonders. He also gets cheekpieces for the firs time. Oh, and he is also 28/1 – 25/1.They had better jump him out in front or close to teh pace here and if they do, and it is clear he is travelling, then sit tight! 

Now, he could throw in the towel and maybe an EW bet is a tad foolish as he could drop himself out or not find for pressure after the last. But, I will take that chance. He clearly has one piece of stand out form – that 2013 Hennessy run where he came a valiant 4th off 143. He races off 125 here. (albeit a few pounds out the handicap,but his ligth weight will help) If he could find anything like the form of that run he would be right in the mix here. He also raced in this year and ran ok, so he handles the track/fences. Given all of the above, and his trends/stats fit, I had to take a chance at a big price. We shall see if it comes off. 

Portrait King – He falls down on a couple of stats. But, he is a fairly lightly raced 10yo over fences who I backed in the Grand National EW at a big price. But for a fall 3 fences from home he looked likely to collect some EW money. Whether he got tired I don’t know but up until that point he had jumped well. He is having his second run for a new yard and I suspect this has been the plan. He has won after being PU before, so that doesn’t concern me and I suspect he needed it. I hope young Derek Fox sends him to the front or just behind the pace as well. That is where he appears happiest. He doesn’t mind what the ground does and he does stay well (former Eider winner) – there is a chance he could get outpaced but he should keep plugging on. At the prices another interesting one. 

Given how the market is I struggled to make a case for anything else. Clearly you can make some sort of case for the top 5/6 in market here (albeit most fall down on some key stats that they will need to overcome – age/inexperience for a couple) but I can’t take a single figure price in a race like this. I just can’t. 

Those that raced 1-15 days ago have a shocking record in this race so that discounts a few.  You need a bit more rest it would appear. Dolatulo caught my eye and I think he may have had a breathing op- so an improved showing could be on the cards. He should be fit enough but there are more bad runs than good in his profile and I was happy to leave him, albeit connections are on fire so he may not be far away. He ticks more trends boxes than most. Cowards Close is a decent trends fit but he has left Nicholls and I can’t think many improve chasers from there. He is an enigma and has a bit to prove now. He could outrun his 40/1 odds though. 

So, two horses that I hope will go well for a long way. When push comes to shove who knows but all I ever want in these big races is a run for my money approaching the last few fences. After that, its fingers crossed! 

***

3.20 Aintree 

Mwaleshi 16/1 (general) – 1 point win (a shame no 4 places)

This will be my only bet in this race (minus a few muggy £5s – possible on Distime as I will be track side!). Daily Punt blog will send out reasoning – him and Distime fit main stats/trends really well.

***

3.35 Sandown 

Count Guide Deiro – 1 point win – 11/1 (coral) 10/1 (general) 

10/1 felt big here for a race where winners generally go off at 12/1 or shorter – so the market is usually useful to a point. Recent renewals suggest you want  a horse with 0-3 handicap chase wins and no more than 3 handicap wins in total. This is a young and progressive horse for team T-D who could be a stayer to watch. They pitched him in the Eider last season – and a bit like with Woodford County- that indicates that they think he will be an out and out stayer. He bolted up in a couple of c3 handicap chases last season and ran well at this track in a decent race, over shorter. He belted a few there, and got out-paced, but still ran a decent race. He will need to tidy up his jumping but this should be the year where he steps forward, and they have clearly taken their time with him. He is in form after his hurdles run LTO (which is interesting in itself) and he gets the main man in the saddle. He is open to improvement, will be better than this mark in time, and looks like he will relish this trip. If he gets into a rythm he should go close. 

There are plenty of out of form horses in here with plenty to prove. Those that look more robust are shorter in the market, some are half the price. NTDs record at this track is quite poor, but his string is in ok form (winner on 1st, a few places since) and the horse does have track form, so that isn’t the reason why he wouldnt run well for me. 10s is generous enough. 

***

TIP

2.30 Chepstow 

Rigadin De Beauchene – 1 point win – 4/1 (general)

Yes, a 10yo I know, but one that I am fairly confident is going to go close here. 4s is fair and I think he should be shorter. In a race that has a few older horses in he is the only one in the race who has no questions to answer as to fitness, ground and trip. He went in my notebook after his last run (not sure if I mentioned him in weekly eye-catchers,but I should have) In first time blinkers he travelled very well for a very long way and was leading a decent field until about 3 out, over 3m3f. That was his first run of the season and he could have needed it – it was also at a meeting where his trainer’s horses usually run shockers. He is well handicapped and will relish the mud. If, and it is an if, he responds to the headgear again, and he goes with the vigour he did LTO, i think he will be hard to peg back here. He feels a bit like a ‘2 pointer’ given the opposition, but my betting bank isnt in a place where I can start advising that just yet!

Benvolio looks out of sorts, Danamix has never raced on heavy, his best form on Good. I can’t think he will like this. Theatrical Star is out of sorts and in any case always finds a few too good at C2 level, some decent placed efforts, but he needs to bounce back. Victors Serenade is tricky – this could be the best time to catch him but there are a few too many letters in his profile for my liking. Firebird Flyer has had a few goes at C2 without much success – not good enough on form to date. Top Wood has plenty to prove in open handicap chase company and after a long break, on this ground. His price is short enough in that context. RC is 12 now, a bit out of sorts, and is just too much in the veterans stage for me.

TDC has the form to win this but comes here after a mamouth lay off. NTD can ready them after such a break and he has a light weight. If he is fit enough to handle this ground after that length of time then he could give the selection most to do. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

12.00 Aintre – Culture De Sivola (12/1< guide- had had a 33/1 winner from 14 bets over 12/1)

1.05 Aint – Agrapart (12/1< as above)

3.20 Aint – Witness in Court (14/1<)

Jumps Handicappers 

1.30 Weth – Grey Life (12/1<)

3.35 Sand – Dont Do Mondays (14/1<)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • Some really good winners today Josh and several points in front.
    Highland Lodge needs a massive leap of faith.This is a horse that ran 4th in the Hennessey behind Trio D’Alene off 143. Last time out he couldnt win off 125 at sedgefield in a class 3. Jacob who rode him was smacking him with the whip after half a mile and he looked a horse that had fell out of love with the game. He has since changed stables and tomorrow faces up to the National fences. He also runs off a 7lb higher mark. Only the unique course and change of stables can give him any sort of chance in my opinion.
    One old stayer i think might go well tomorrow is Rigadin De Beauchene at Chepstow. Everything is right for him tomorrow,December, less than 12 runners and heavy ground. Good luck and keep up the good work.

    Roddo 04/12/15 7:15 PM Reply


    • Cheers Roddo – yes a leap of faith required for HL, but there are reasons to believe he could run better, and the ability is there somewhere. And, at the end of the day he is a big price, and that allows the risk IMO.
      Agree about the old boy, RDB, as you can see above. He must go very close.
      Good Luck

      Josh Wright 05/12/15 9:31 AM Reply


  • Nice winner with Woodford county knew you where due one …hopefuly the start of a few more

    harold 05/12/15 3:25 AM Reply


  • Highland Lodge has an official rating of 125 but is 7lb out of the handicap so actually runs off 132. This isnt a problem if he can get to within 7lbs of his best form but its a BIG if. Good luck everybody

    Roddo 05/12/15 9:47 AM Reply


    • Agree again! But, if you cant back big ‘Ifs’ at 28/1 – then you never will 🙂

      Josh Wright 05/12/15 9:52 AM Reply


  • What a great pick on Highland Lodge had a few quid on it really enjoy the trends for saturday races

    joe 05/12/15 1:52 PM Reply


  • WOW You did it Highland Lodge, great result Thank You

    Michael 05/12/15 1:52 PM Reply


  • Wow, thanks Josh. Superb stuff

    Barry 05/12/15 1:53 PM Reply


  • Brilliant tipping Josh would have had 2 in the frame had portrait king not crashed out

    Tony Thompson 05/12/15 1:54 PM Reply


  • Many congratulations, Josh; great ride from Henry Brooke, I thought.

    Chris 05/12/15 1:55 PM Reply


  • Brilliant spot Josh, had a bit e/w on both cheers

    Karl 05/12/15 1:55 PM Reply


  • Leap of faith not needed Josh,well done

    Tony 05/12/15 1:59 PM Reply


  • On fire Josh well done

    Kevin 05/12/15 2:01 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh H L impressive win, you know your stuff

    Lee 05/12/15 2:07 PM Reply


  • Booooooommm!!! Josh

    Terrific Tipping – Take a bow !!!

    Never headed – “A horse out of love with game at Sedgey returns triumphant at Aintree 30/1 on BFair” brilliant stuff Keep em comin !!!

    Jo 05/12/15 2:07 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh,drinks on you.Highland Lodge was brilliant

    Grant 05/12/15 2:10 PM Reply


  • Fantastic pick of Highland Lodge. Thanks. Got 28/1 on Betfair this morning. That’s paid for my sons laptop for Christmas!
    Thanks again
    Ian

    Ian Connor 05/12/15 2:19 PM Reply


  • Well done josh,i was concentrating on the moore bandwagon,keeps on rolling 6/1 and 16/1 winners so far,looking like a great weekend,enjoy your stay

    gerry 05/12/15 2:21 PM Reply


  • Thank you nice winner. Stay lucky.

    Trev 05/12/15 2:22 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh,that was a long last furlong,thought it was never going to end.Well done again.

    BoB 05/12/15 3:15 PM Reply


  • Well done josh.Superb ,and thankyou

    michael 05/12/15 3:36 PM Reply


  • nice one josh, highland lodge, pity logged on after the race

    malcolm pendrey 05/12/15 4:06 PM Reply


  • Absolutely chuffed for you Josh the cream rises to the top and it kind of points out why your writing the blog and we are just reading

    Aaron 05/12/15 6:05 PM Reply


  • Hello Josh,
    Tremendous selection with Highland Lodge. Aaron is spot on when he says you are writing and we are reading. I had a small saver on but only because you gave it out. My main bets were Goonyella and Portrait King.
    Your hard work is being rewarded. Only 58 has purchased the all weather guide!! The men in white coats will be knocking on the doors of those who havent purchased. Its a brilliant piece of work and at £14 an absolute steal.

    Roddo 05/12/15 7:32 PM Reply


  • Harold???!!!

    Andy 05/12/15 7:57 PM Reply


  • Only 58 has purchased the all weather guide!! pray tell me more,dont know anything about it ,cheers mick.

    michael 05/12/15 8:16 PM Reply


  • Its an all weather guide packed with information on how to make a profit. It covers the top 5 trainers to follow at the five all weather tracks from maiden races,sellers,claimers. In the handicaps it covers nurseries, 3.y.o+ 3.y.o only and 4.y.o+ handicaps.It then gives micro angles at distances from 5f-10f+. At the end of the guide it gives 5 trainer micro angles .3 at Kempton and one each at Southwell and Lingfield. There is also two trainer angles at Dundalk. One of these gave a 4/1 winner on Friday night from 2 selections. As i said earlier at £14 its unbeatable value. Theres also a money back guarantee.An absolute no brainer.

    Roddo 06/12/15 8:14 AM Reply


  • Thanks.

    michael 06/12/15 8:59 AM Reply


    • No problem. Any issues then email me. My system doesn’t like so!e email addresses to I have to send you report directly from a different account… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

      Josh Wright 06/12/15 9:06 AM Reply


  • Just purchased.,same format as the N H guides,should be excellent,just my cup of tea,cheers

    michael 06/12/15 9:05 AM Reply


  • Well done with Highland Lodge. Unfortunately I didn’t back him!!
    Just came across you & thought I’d wait & see if you were any good. Don’t I feel like an ass!!!!
    Fair play to you.
    Sean

    Sean Gilligan 07/12/15 8:42 PM Reply


    • Ah damn. Sorry to hear that, well that is always the way, we have all been there! It has been up and down the last few months, but generally up since last November. Systems been doing very well. Start with a small bank/stakes and build yourself up would be my advice. You are quite right to be cautious about anyone new. The odds I play at in general, and the odd bit of inconsistency, mean there are the odd long losing runs, but you dont need many Woodford County’s and Highland Lodge’s to come out in front at the end of the year!

      Josh Wright 07/12/15 8:49 PM Reply


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