Members Report: 04/12/15 (COMPLETE)

Ahh. I was counting my losses on Kings A as soon as they were circling before the start. A horse that usually bowls along out in front, or tries to, was held up behind and never really got into it. Aachen got an easy lead and dictated, having been held up on his last few starts, and jumped well. Venetia had a great day and clearly the string are still in good nick. I wouldnt have backed him at 4s this morning given how I thought race would pan out – his jumping can be shoddy when behind runners and in the words of his jockey he can have his own ideas – he did drift to 7s, and if you had told me how the race would be run pre race – that would have looked decent – but, we don’t have a crystal ball, albeit ‘pace maps’ help most of the time! I was made to look like a mug there. 

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TIP 

1.40 Exeter 

Woodford County – 1 point win 8/1 (BV,WH,LadB)* WON 8/1 (about bloody time)

*as of 22.02, 03/12/15

A decent regional national to get stuck into here and based on this horses placed efforts in stronger marathon chases last season I think 8s is too big, for a trainer in red hot form again (10/30 last 14 days, over 50% placed) Apparently he never travelled after an early blunder last time out, and maybe he just didnt fancy it after that but he kept plugging on and at least should be spot on fitness wise. He was pitched into the Welsh National early in his career really so they clearly see him as a stayer. He then ran really good races in the Eider and the Midlands National and a repeat of either of those efforts would put him into the mix here. He knows how to win, is still unexposed as a stayer but at the same time has enough experience and miles on the clock for a test like this. With the jockey’s claim he has a decent weight as well – in a test like this, in this ground, that 7lb will make some difference. He can hit the odds fence and will need to keep errors down but he looks solid enough here. This could be the perfect trip and he needs to go well in this for me and reach his staying potential.  

There are 15 years of trends for this race with a few standing out. 9/15 had run over 3m6f+ before. French Breds are 0/19, 1 place which is a concern for some of the more fancied runners. 14/15 had 0-3 handicap chase wins, 13/15 0-2 handicap chase wins – suggesting that this goes to the more unexposed runners. Those that PU or UR LTO are 0/25, 2 places. 15/15 ran in C3 or C4 LTO. 

Nothing bullet proof given sample sizes but interesting nonetheless. Those carrying over 11-11 are 0/16, 5 places – but the places suggest this isnt a single factor that should put you off a horse by itself. But, carrying a big weight, over this trip, in this ground is tough. 

There are some very unexposed ones near the top of the market. The likes of Auvergnat and St Dominick are very inexperienced and this will be tough for them. Beyond 3m is just an unknown and I would rather go for one more battle hardened, esp at the odds. As De Fer – well he needs to improve a lot and another where distance is a bit of an unknown. His chase form is underwhelming in recent seasons. Heronshaw has a big weight and is also very inexperienced over fences for a test like this. Barton Gift has a chance but does need to step up into this class. I think there could be a couple of better ones in here. Gorgehous Lliege is in poor form and PU LTO, in the race he won last year after a break. Too much to prove for me. Sybarite is too unpredictable. 

Nail M is interesting but comes here quickly after a lengthy break. He looks like he will stay but does need to step up on previous efforts. He is unexposed and ticks a lot of the trends, and his light weight will help. He is a system qualifier below if he comes into range and I may have 1/2 on if so, albeit I have a few niggles as to how good he is. Trainer only 3/55 here as well. Loughalder is interesting as he does stay well. But, he is too exposed for the type of profile that usually wins this and he is 0/3, 0 places RH. He is rarely campaigned RH and given how he went in a couple of chases I can see why – they were littered with mistakes. If I have read his RH/LH preference wrong then he could reward EW backers at a price. I do think there are classier horses in here though. 

So, hopefully Woodford County can get into a rythm behind what could be a strong pace, and pick them up down the home straight. The jockey knows him well and hopefully he can run a good race. 

***

That is all for today. I will be travelling up to Liverpool for the first half of tomorrow for a few weeks up in my favourite City, including a trip to Aintree on Saturday. 

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A quick word on McCain..he had a winner (5/1) and an unplaced in handicap chases today, that did not qualify due to neither having won a handicap chase. I will keep an eye on how they do, and may highlight them for reference so you can make a form decision. Albeit do read through the ‘December Trainers’ post to see the stats. They have been unprofitable to follow, and under-perform against market expectations overall since 2010, although from a sample below 50. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

1.30 Sand – Cloudy Joker (14/1<) UP

2.15 Exet – Lord of The Hosts (12/1<- a guide -well as all prices are to a point) UP (above ‘guide’ price)

3.00 Sedg – Whisky Chaser (14/1<) UP 

3.20 Exet – Tea For Two (12/< a guide) WON 3/1>2/1

Jumps Handicappers

1.40 Exet – Nail M (12/1<) 2nd  (16/1) 12/1>13/2

2.50 Exet- Never Say Never (12/1<) UP 4/9

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Mick Halford has two qualifiers for one of the AW Micro Systems in my new stats pack (link to which is below in comments). Obviously I won’t post these everyday given this is a free post, but the two horses for interest are below. He has a solid 30% SR with this angle since 2010. 

6.05 Dunalk – Gift Wrap (any odds) WON 4/1

7.05 Dun – Ebasani (as above) UP

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • GET YOUR ALL-WEATHER STATS PACK HERE….http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/awtrackprofiles

    Josh Wright 03/12/15 5:50 PM Reply


    • Kicking myself over Aachen aswell Josh! The All weather pack looks great i’ve been waiting for that so cheers 😉

      james.b 03/12/15 9:12 PM Reply


      • Yea tricky one – was more hindsight annoyance and in general siding with 10yo+ in a race with unexposed ones in is difficult long term to do well I think. Was clear after first few he was going to stay there – Irony is that if Kings had ran his normal race, they would have taken each other on, and/or Aachen would have tracked pace and may have sulked. That is racing, he was 4s this morning as well. More annoyed they changed tactics and didnt have much chance from then. Damn! Glad you like stats pack, hope it is useful..

        Josh Wright 03/12/15 9:31 PM Reply


  • might i add that the McCain winner was incredibly fortunate with Cyclop falling at the penultimate fence whilst acres ahead and cruising

    Ali 03/12/15 9:34 PM Reply


    • ah – well that is good to hear! I didnt see the race so cheers. I did wonder when looking at distance won if that was the case.

      Josh Wright 03/12/15 10:05 PM Reply


  • Cyclop was very unlucky at Market Rasen yesterday and would of won if standing up,I was there yesterday to see Geegeez run

    Tony 04/12/15 10:07 AM Reply


  • Hello tony you all must have been dissapointed with the geegeez i know he hit one hurdle quite hard did he come back ok?

    steve 04/12/15 10:16 AM Reply


  • It may be a bit early in the markets but there seems to be a lot of confidence in Sybarite from ntd’s yard

    Aaron 04/12/15 10:46 AM Reply


    • No idea how anyone can be confident about him. He has the ability,that isn’t in question,but he tends to drop himself out and run on. If others stop in front he may pick them up…if he jumps of tracking pace and jockey is still for first circuit,then backers could be in business,but he is a risky bet,but some may judge price worth that risk. Looks like he will stay but hard to make him out really. Unless they have changed something at home and seen a change in behaviour.

      Josh Wright 04/12/15 11:31 AM Reply


  • Hello Steve,yes he came back ok thankyou for asking.He hated the ground yesterday

    Tony 04/12/15 10:57 AM Reply


    • Must admit it didn’t look good early,not sure if usual but head carriage a bit to left and don’t think he looked comfortable,whether ground,big weight,going that way round? Or a combo. Will be other days for him.

      Josh Wright 04/12/15 11:28 AM Reply


  • Yes Josh Matt and myself thought he was struggling very early on with a circuit to go.As you say there will be other days and plenty of them too I hope

    Tony 04/12/15 11:47 AM Reply


  • Boom Josh !!

    Back to winning ways – I highlighted Gethings as one to follow for Hobbs – Gave it lovely ride

    Keep em comin!!!

    Jo

    Jo 04/12/15 1:55 PM Reply


    • Ah glad you kept the faith Jo! A few too many false dawns ,hopefully can kick on in the chasing game now. That was long overdue and much needed! More relief. Yep I remember you highlighting him,great young jock and arguably his claim has won it. Good to see the well backed Hawke runner chase him home,but glad he came second!

      Josh Wright 04/12/15 2:08 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh and maybe even the forecast for some?

    tony 04/12/15 2:07 PM Reply


    • No forecast for this scribe I really should consider that bet more,esp as I was confident in discounting a few in that. Hope some.may have dabbled,but not me!

      Josh Wright 04/12/15 2:12 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh 8/1 a lovely price will help in the purchase of a few Xmas pressies. Thanks.

    John 04/12/15 2:48 PM Reply


  • Well done josh,drought is over!
    ,i didn’t back it as I was following the gary moore bandwagon at sandown again 2 winners so far 9/1 and 12/1,he will hardly get mr fickle for the treble

    gerry 04/12/15 2:50 PM Reply


  • Had mixboy for k dalgleish at 11/2 for good measure

    gerry 04/12/15 2:51 PM Reply


    • Well sounds like you have had a very good day Gerry, well done. Yes, was about time I picked one out in truth!!

      Josh Wright 04/12/15 3:08 PM Reply


  • Great shout Josh and I hope you have a beltor of a weekend in lapool ( what a town) nearest city to Dublin
    I have to mention the aw report I purchased yesterday mother of god buddy the only thing I don’t know after 2-3 hours reading and following stats is how many sugars Appleby takes in his tea
    Hats off for supplying the final piece of every punters jigsaw for the dark months ahead I actually can’t wait for Southwells next meet

    Aaron 04/12/15 2:58 PM Reply


  • yes josh great day,well gary did the treble,if only I did a treble,but very good day for sure,and Malcolm continued with his nhf stats at Sedgefield,funnily enough my bank was up and down,my last big advance was with gary last month and same today

    gerry 04/12/15 4:15 PM Reply


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