Members Report: 02/12/15 (COMPLETE)

TIP

2.10 Ludlow 

Rio Milan – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) 

Until Winning – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/BV/SJ) 

 

This race has an open feel to it and I have gone for two here who look over priced to me. 

Rio Milan ran a decent race on his return over CD two runs ago, where he may just have needed it near the end after a long break. But, either way, a repeat of that run is going to put him right in the mix here. He is still unexposed over this kind of trip over fences and that run showed that he did stay. He also likes the track (2/5, 4 places over fences here) and I think he will be able to dictate or certainly sit very handy. He was a bit poor LTO but it looked like he couldn’t go with them and/or downed tools a bit when out of contention. The trainer and jockey do well here when teaming up over fences, albeit from a small sample (2/4, 3 places) and with the ground no problem he should give us a race jumping up the home straight. 

Until Winning – well again 14s felt big given the step up in trip. Now, I don’t like betting with too many unknowns over fences, but if you are going to take a chance on a horse improving for a trip you at least want a decent price. This 7yo is 3/9 over fences and could have more to come. To my eye he has started to look a tad outpaced over shorter and on his sires side, this trip could be just what he wants now a bit older. It could be that they now don’t know what to do with him and this is an experiment – one which he may fail. But, 14s allows that chance, and if he does stay he will not be very far away. George has a 25% SR with his handicap chasers here. The jockey bookings are interesting. Bargary has ridden this one before, and maybe Brennan chose Rio Milan – think he would have had a choice I am not sure.

Kins Massini has gone up 8lbs to a ratings band he has struggled from before but of more concern is the going, if it is genuinely soft. We may have missed the race to back him and 4s is just ok, nothing better. GoodtoKnow has plenty to prove for me. 1/12 over fences, he likes coming second, needs to prove his class and fitness and does need to step up on last season’s efforts. The yard is in great form but I am not jumping at the chance to take 4/1. He is only 7 though so there should be more to come this season. Howards Legacy can hit a fence, is only 1/14 handicap chasing and is 0/7, 1 place RH over fences. He goes well fresh but again I am not jumping at the chance to lump on this inconsistent beast. Tinker Time has some decent novice form but hasnt been great in open handicap company and I want to see a bit more. He has ability and will need to tidy up his jumping. He was also PU LTO, although plenty were in what turned into a slog. That was heavy. He could outrun his odds. The rest I am content to take on. Come on Laurie is unexposed, but this being only his second chase start, a bit too unexposed for my liking in this kind of race. He could be anything (not a GC horse obviously,you know what I mean) but may be found out for experience. There are a few too many unknowns and I would want a double figure price. What remains have enough to prove for me. 

So, we should get a run for our money and they both should be bang there turning for home. Hopefully they are both fighting out the finish! 

***

That is all for today. 

Quick word on Valle of Milan – he may not like it too wet, but he should be a decent barometer for the health of the yard. He is one I track as having a few profile pointers…his form in C3<£10k, LH and 1-7 runners over fences is 1,3,1,1,F,1. He likes a small field, he prefers going this way round and he drops in class here. The ground should be ok, and if he runs a shocker then the warning lights could well be flashing. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers 

A David Pipe like word of warning for the McCain yard – currently 1/45 in the last 30 days, which isn’t great is it?! I would tread cautiously until we see signs of life (which may never happen the way things have gone over what seems an eternity now), but that could start tomorrow…

12.50 Catt – Court of Law (14/1<) 

2.50 Catt – Valley of Milan (14/1<)

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • Hello Josh,
    I resisted the 2:10 at Ludlow today as i felt there were to many ifs and buts around. Rio Milan approaching ten and only ever won over 2m4f was enough to put me off him. The winners record as you said in open handicaps was off putting and just about everyone had a doubt. I backed Valley Of Milan because i felt he might outstay them .He ran well and felt Johnson gave the winner a mighty ride.
    I like the all weather stats you are putting out soon.I just cannot believe you have given so much free stuff away.Perhaps the full version is several times bigger. I havent had much more than a handful of bets on the All Weather but i think i might purchase the guide as the surface is consistent.My slight niggle is the ability(or lack of it) of the horses to produce the goods on a regular basis.Some of the racing on the all weather looks desperate but the snippets of stats look strong.
    Regards.
    Roddo

    Roddo 02/12/15 5:11 PM Reply


    • Hi Roddo,
      Yes dont blame you re 2.10 – you can read my pity party reflections on that race in tomorrow’s post. Think I would have always backed Rio and taken chance, but was tossing up between the eventual winner and the George horse and made the wrong call – been doing that a bit lately with my final shortlist – result no surprise and was happy with how I dismissed all of the more fancied runners. Getting there, albeit without profits to show just yet. Valley ran a fine race, prob just a bit soft for him after all that rain and kept on same pace, and Johnson was at his best. Still, a fine run, and looks like his turn isnt far away.

      Final version is quite a bit bigger, that free report is only 5 elements/sections (1 per track,as an example) – and there are 11 (depending how you count) sections per track, so 55 sections, plus all the bonus stuff. It is all divided into manageable bit sized chunks – have tried to make it as accessible/useful as possible, hence more of a focus on ‘Top 5 Trainers’ etc

      Agree about your general point with AW but plenty of good snippets in there – and even if you just follow micro-systems you would have a good season hopefully. And, that is why it is sometimes best to follow the trainers, regardless of horse – of at least be strongly led towards a bet based on trainer rather than animal.

      Free stuff – I like to give my list value and the best chance to judge for themselves whether to buy stuff when I do sell it. I enjoy it and my aim is to provide lots of free info to help in battle against bookies, whilst occasionally charging for something.

      Josh Wright 02/12/15 5:32 PM Reply


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