Another shocker of a day today but there is one that catches my eye for interest…
3.00 Ling – The Informant 11/2 UP 8/1 (general) – Mullins is 3/13, 6 places with his handicap chaser s here since 2010 and 3/10, 6 places when the main man, Andrew Thornton is up in the saddle. This is a shocker of a race, and not one to put your mortgage on, but at those odds, given the opposition, I think that is a tad generous. The trainer is also in form which is always important. In the last 14 days he is 2/11, and a few of those unplaced horses have been unfancied in decent enough races. In the previous 14 days before that he was 0/16, so maybe his string is just coming to the boil.
The horse handles heavy, the trip is no problem and he stays a bit further which is no bad thing in ground like this. For the level he does know how to win (3/17, 4 places in handicap chases) and is back down to a mark he can compete from. He was running ok LTO before almost falling and I think he should be thereabouts in this race.
Now, if Capilla settles here, he probably wins. But he is keen and they go for the hood here. If that doesnt work, in this ground, he could struggle to get home. So, there is a reason to take him on. The rest are poor. Little Jimmy has a poor record fresh, and his trainer is 1/41, 3 places with his runners returning 121-365 days, 0/22, 3 places with chasers 61-365 days rest. So, happy to take him on at those odds – evidence suggests he will need the run. The Cats Away isnt very good but does drop a long way down in trip. But, he is 0/12, 1 place in chases and has it all to prove. But, it is a C5 chase at end of the day. Moveable Asset has plenty to prove and is flat bred and his best form looks to be on a firmer surface. He is 0/3 in chases and has to step up. Lambs Cross is 2/21 in handicap chases, 0/5 on heavy, and could need further. He isnt in great form either. Seventh Hussar could win this but has been off over 700+ days and I am just guessing. If fit enough he has an unexposed profile and knows how to win, albeit over further. Surely he will need this! (famous last words)
So, there is enough there to have a dart on this one. It is a poor level, and C5 chases should be avoided in general, but he should run his race and he has plenty in his favour. He does need to bounce back but there are questions over all of them and 11/2 does underestimate his chance in my opinion.
That is all for today.
-Hearmenow (7/1< a guide- those up to 18/1 worth considering) 2nd (neck) 14/1>7/1
Where it Began (as above)
1.30 Ling – Never Say Never (12/1<) WON 2/1>11/10