- Handicap Chase
- Horse Wins In a Handicap Chase: NOT 0 (so, 1 or more!)
- 14/1 or under (only a guide, small sample above this)
I followed this angle last year where it just wiped its face. In general McCain had a poor season last year and I believe he may have had a virus. His string were very inconsistent and that accusation could be levelled again this season from what we have seen so far. But, albeit from a small sample, this is usually a time to catch his handicap chasers.
Last year I did not include the rule about number of wins in handicap chases. Those that have 0 wins in handicap chases, and are clearly still young and learning about the game are: (with all other rules the same)
44 bets / 8 wins / 14 places / 18% SR / -10 SP / AE 0.88
We are not going to get many bets here, which is no bad thing, but a repeat of any of the last 3 years would help pay for some Christmas presents!
Price is very much a guide with this one. He has only had 7 such runners above 14/1, only 2 priced 16/1 – as yet none have placed.
With the same rules, outside of December, he is:
300 bets / 31 wins / 79 places / 10.3% SR / -125 SP / AE 0.58
He has lost his main owner from the yard and it will take some time for him to recover. But, he is a decent trainer and it will be interesting how he goes this month.
- Non-Handicaps (all non-handicaps)
- 12/1 or under (a guide)
This is the kind of micro angle that gets me quite excited.
Price is a guide again with this one. With horses priced above 12/1 SP he is 1/13, 3 places. The winner was 33/1. He has only had two runners at 16/1, so it is very much a guide. Arguably all of his non handicap runners are worth a second glance here and he could well have another ‘biggy’ go in.
These are solid stats and looking at his overall record over the year, it looks like a clear strategy of the yard to get his non-handicappers firing at this time of year. This covers all types of non-handicap races – he is strong across the board. He also has a decent enough record in January and February and I will look at them closer to the time – albeit they are not as strong as December. Outside of those three months his stats, with the same rules…
155 bets / 21 wins / 57 places / 13.55% SR / -42 SP / AE 0.75
His horses are also well backed. Just taking opening show, let alone morning prices, would have been worth an extra +24 points above SP.
Fingers crossed for an exciting month ahead with this one. Such is the strike rate, and the fact that generally these horses are unexposed, probably with little form, using this system as a ‘guide’ could be problematic – unless you are a fine judge of non-handicap runners. I suspect I will back the lot systematically, unless there are signs that the yard is having problems. (much like with Pipe in November)
J S Moore (Stan Moore)
- Non-Handicaps (all non-handicaps)
- 7/1 or under (guide)
Stan Moore clearly doesn’t have the largest of strings but he is fairly successful with those non-handicappers he sends out this month, especially when they are prominent in the market.
With those priced 8/1 he is 0/4, 2 places.Those priced 10/1 – 18/1 he is 1/9, 3 places, +10 SP, thanks to an 18/1 winner. Above 18/1: 0/16, 0 places.
Clearly those priced between 8/1-18/1 run well enough, and are worthy of some consideration. Those bigger priced horses have not been in the last two seasons.
He has a decent record across maidens, claimers and sellers.
His record in all other months with the same criteria: 168 bets / 38 wins / 88 places / 22.62% SR / -10.42 SP / AE 0.93
He does well in other months but is hard to predict systematically. His ‘placed ‘record is decent and again there won’t be many bets, but hopefully a winner or two to cheer.
That is all for this month. Three trainers to keep an eye on who historically have had their strings in decent form during December. Their runners generally go under the radar, especially when races are initially priced up. Hopefully they provide us with something to cheer.
As always, historical performance is no guarantee of future success. With these angles current trainer form can be important, as we have seen with David Pipe. It was clear going into November that all was not well and hopefully that ensured a few (many!) of his losers were avoided (although I did back a handful myself)
These angles are researched so that you can back them systematically, and results are recorded and reviewed as such. I would always advise looking at the horse in the context of the race they are running in. Two of the trainers are operating in Non-Handicaps where form analysis may be problematic and I will start off with the intention of backing both systematically. Nick Williams in particular has a strong set of stats, from a good pool of horses.
Potential selections will be posted the evening before (when possible) and always by 10am on the day of racing, in the ‘Daily Members Reports’.