Members Report: 26/11/15 (systems+ Newbury Micros)

TIP 

1.00 Newbury 

Russe Blanc 1 point win – 13/2 – 2nd 5/1

I think this is the only horse in the race who doesn’t have some kind of question to answer. The only niggles are that he is 3lb about his last win (but is open to a tad more improvement this season potentially – and that 3lb wont be what beats him) and he is probably better RH (but has won LH, and placed here). He is a class winner, ground no problem, he stays, he will be fit and he is consistent. In 15 chase runs to date he has places in 10,(won 3) so we should get a run for our money. His trainer is 3/6 in the last 14 days and 5/18 in last month. He has won on his second start of the season for previous two seasons and will have needed the run LTO. We also have one of the best jockeys in the race on board  – 5/31, 9 places with all his chase runs in last couple of years. The fact he has been booked is significant I would hope. 

All in, 13/2 looked a bit generous to me given questions over the others. 

Wuff – well he has a favourites chance but Nicholls suggested in his Betfair Column that he may need the run – even if he is fit, 9/4 is skinny for a horse that does have it to prove, albeit he is unexposed and could be better than these. But, I am happy to take him on. 

With most of the others you are guessing as to fitness and none of them have a brilliant record after a break. I am content to take all those on who are making their reappearance. In general they all have a few other questions to answer as well (Baby Shine 0/5, 1 place beyond 2m6f for example) Belmount has it to prove after the PU LTO and his jockey is 0/16 in chases to date. Lord Landen 0/5, 0 places beyond 2m6f, 0/3, 0 places C3 and he is 10. 

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I think Russe Blanc looks the most solid here and I can’t see him being too far away. As I said, 13/2 felt generous in the context of the opposition. Hopefully we get a run for our money and he can grind these into submission after the last. 

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No Shortlist today. There is enough below to sift through. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Newbury Trainers’ perform. I wouldnt advise backing them all blind, but more to use as a guide in your own analysis. But, hopefully they can run well and there are a few winners there. 

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As always I am interested to hear what you fancy and why, so do comment away! 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

12.45 South – Daylight (12/1 or under) DNQ

2.55 Taunt – Navanman (14/1 or under) UP (pipes continue to run in and out)

6.40 Chelm – Hoofalong (12/1 or under) WON 7/2

 

Emma Lavelle (14/1 or under)

12.30 Newb – See The World UP

 

Jumps Handicappers 

12.40 Taunt  – Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under) DNQ 

1.45 Taunt – Fountains Blossom  (12/1 or under) 2nd 4/1

2.55 Taunt – Dazinski (12/1 – 14/1 or under) UP 9/2> 2/1

2.55 Taunt – Ourmanmassini (20/1 or under) UP 14/1>10/1 

4.00 Taunt – Double Accord (12/1 or under) 2nd 10/1

 

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NEWBURY TRAINER POINTERS 

(horses of interest taken from my stats post – Paul Nicholls/Alan King/Phillip Hobbs/David Pipe/Bailey/Fry) 

RACE 1 – 12.30

Modus (Nicholls – 7/1<) WON 1/2

Charmix (Fry – winners 7/2 or shorter, small sample) 2nd 9/2 

 

RACE 3 – 1.35  

Amanto (Nicholls – 7/1<) UP

Mille Nautique (King – 16/1<) DNQ 

 

RACE 4 – 2.10 

Un Temps Pour Tout (Pipe -under 16/1) 2nd 2/1>6/4

 

RACE 5 – 2.45 

Warriors Tale (Nicholls, 7/1<) 2nd 13/2 (head)

Chosen Well (King, 16/1<) UP

The DrinkyMeister (Bailey – all winners 7/1<, 16/1< EW – 4/8,8 places all chasers here since 2010) UP 

 

RACE 6 – 3.15 

Stern Rubin (Hobbs, no odds – 7/18, 11 places with handicappers 0 or 1 run last 90 days)  WON 4/1

 

RACE 7 – 3.50 

RoyalZaro (Fry, 2/2 in this race, all winners 7/2 or shorter to date) 

Kir Royal (King, 16/1<)  3rd 25/1 (14s morning, drifted) 

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About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

11 Comments

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  • im going for john constable in the 3.15

    all of Evan Williams’ hcp hurdlers are worth following, for that matter, especially at newbury

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


    • Good Luck Ali, can see why you like him and it does look a fairly open race. I am sticking with the Hobbs one for interest,

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • So who usually rides E Williams’ winning hurdlers @ Newbury, trainer is 3/11 last 5 years while Paul Moloney 1/16 same period?

        Dan Skelton’s runner is clear top rated on my figs.

        Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


  • I’ve backed Nitrogen 245 at 9/4 to place, having decided to leave the win part because of the training issues and the strength of the oppos. Feel sure that Harry will have done his best but can’t expect too much.
    I thought 15/2 about John C 320 was the right price to pay for a win chance as I think CD + going are ideal – just the others to worry about – but have to trust that Evan has readied him again.

    Chris 1 year ago Reply


  • Hit the post Josh !! Nice each way advice 13/2 and traded about 1.9 in running – Never mind

    You read the race perfectly (almost)

    Keep em cmon!!
    Jo

    Jo 1 year ago Reply


    • Knocking on the door! Got a run for my money and had a race after the last so I wont complain. Shame the winner was race fit – trainer was 1/26 with horses 121-365 days and he was poor on his reappearance last season. Never mind! Russe Blan does look like a grinder, stiff finish and/or marathon trip. He will win a race or two this season.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • A day for going for a long walk and cursing that lady!,very rarely will such a stomach churning day occur hopefully.all honeyballs running well but not well enough,2 races lost at the last hurdle,warriors tale beaten a nose and a no show from a well backed royalzaro,thankfully I have some logs to chop and vent my frustration,but hey the sun also rises and were all a bit more battle hardened.

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


    • Yes – not pleasant at all! But, that is racing. Rather I get a run for my money against them dropping out back of TV. Systems done well to date all combined and over time we will get our fare share of luck. Still, would have been nice if one of those seconds had gone in!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Rattled the crossbar with five 2nds. Un Temps Pour Tout, Fountains Blossom, Double Accord, Warriors Tale and Russe Blanc. Backed the last three each way so not too much damage.
    Russe Blanc made a mistake at a crucial time (5 out i think) which had him playing catch up. The winner battled on well and was a worthy winner. The Honeyball horses are running well and is certainly a stable to follow at the moment.
    We have the right stats its just a matter of time before we have a clutch of winners similar to October

    Roddo 1 year ago Reply


    • Yes agree with the stats point (as I would 🙂 ) – I will have to watch race back again to spot RBs error but I wont put defeat down to that, he was one paced, which would have been fine if the leader had stopped! But agree, he did battle on well there – given he didnt get an easy lead and had to battle, he is one to follow – jump round Newbury you can jump round most places- given trainer will prob always go off bigger than he should. Front two have more races in them.
      Nicholls runners he has got from Tom George are interesting (Brookehouse owned) – Not many better trainers of chasers than Tom George for me (Nicholls being one of them) so interesting if can spark some of them back to life. Signs not encouraging so far, albeit a part excuse for today’s runner.
      Need to go back through results but I think systems are comfortably ahead for the month.
      Onto tomorrow.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • great winner Josh
    top clas as usual
    bet with sportsbook(betfair) so got the free bet as well for winner

    graham ashford 11 months ago Reply


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