Members Report: 24/11/15 (COMPLETE)

 

THE SHORTLIST 

12.20 Sedg – Cumbrian Farmer 7/1 (WH/BetBright/Boyle) UP 4/1 – K Slack hasn’t been training under rules for long but has done well with his runners to date -7/26, 14 places with all runners in 2015.  He is 2/6, 4 places with horses from other stables first time out, and has sent 8 runners to the track in total, 3 have won, 6 have placed. This is an awful race with every horse having major questions to answer. I thought 7s was fair to take a chance on this one. Brooke has won 5 times on this trainer’s horses from 16 rides and I think the fact he has been booked is significant. The ground is a bit of an unknown but the price, in context of how poor the rest are, allows that chance. 

Using the same stats he also runs Runswick Relax in the 1.50-  this one is being backed as well and comes here after a much longer break. I don’t know if Brooke would have had the choice or not but he rides another one in here who he has ridden previously. It is another poor race but this horse has ran ok around 24f previously and drops down to 16f which could be a concern. I thought his other runner looked to have a better chance but will see if I have got that right!

12.40 South – Boolass 9/2 (SJ) 4/1 (general) –  UP 9/2 Looking at my stats guide I can see that Ellison is 6/13, 10 places with his maiden runners here 12/1 or under (months Nov-April) since 2010. This one had a bit of a break before his run LTO where he ran well enough in a handicap. He has ran well over CD before and some of the others will have to prove a liking for the track. He looks sure to run his race for a jockey that has a decent enough record around here. 

2.40 South – Deep Resolve 8/1 (general) UP 7/2– Swinbank is 17/42, 25 places with his handicappers here that are 8/1 or shorter during the ‘winter season’. Fanning is 7/14 when riding for this trainer on the All-Weather – that caught my eye. The horse handles this surface (won a maiden here) and takes a drop in class from recent turf runs. He has ran poorly a couple of times in handicaps over CD which is a slight concern, but given the stats, jockey booking and the price I couldn’t resist. If he does drift we could be in a bit of trouble as the trainer is currently 0/16 with those priced over 8/1, indicating market support is significant. 

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I had a good look at the 3pm Lingfield – Chase the Spud caught my eye when flicking through last night – he was 10/1 (effectively 8/1 after R4) but he is now 6/1 generally which is probably about right. I think fresh is the best time to catch him and if he runs like he did at Exeter he will go close here. The two PUs would be a concern but he could have strengthened up again and is unexposed. The rest have questions to answer with the Moore runner looking the most interesting of the rest given his unexposed profile. Wilton Milan needs to prove he stays and I haven’t seen much evidence of that yet. Fourovakind comes from a yard that can do no wrong at the moment but he is 10yo and has needed his last two seasonal reappearances – so I am unsure as to his fitness. Rocky Bender can clout the odd fence and could need the run – he has no proven ‘reappearance’ winning form. He is 10 and is only 1/20 in his career, needing a lot to drop right. But, it is November, it is Williams, it is heavy ground and she has a good record here. If it is a slog he probably wont be far away. 

If Chase The Spud was still 10s, or 8s, I would have taken a chance I think but I have missed that price so will leave him. You may think 6s is ok and I hope he runs well. 2nd (neck) 4/1

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

1.10 South – Contendit (12/1 or under) NR

1.30 Ling – Kings River (16/1 or under) WON 8/1 >5/1

3.00 Ling – Rocky Bender (16/1 or under) FELL

3.40 South – Perfect Peak (12/1 or under) DNQ

Jumps Handicappers 

1.20 Sedge – Seventeen Black (12/1 or under) UP (big late drift)

2.20 Sedge – Retrieve The Stick (12/1 or under) WON 7/1 (drifted)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • The guides have thrown up around 24 runners today. I have looked at a few and will go with Boolass and Deep Resolve. I like Scottishe in the 12.10 at Southwell and Rocky Bender in the 3.00 at Lingfield but i have decided to leave alone. Its very poor racing at Sedgefield and the Southwell stats are a new venture. Lets hope they start as they mean to carry on.
    I find it difficult to cull so many runners but it has to be done, I follow your lead and keep a close look at stable form and market movement.

    Roddo 24/11/15 10:26 AM Reply


    • Hi Roddo – yes my note-pad is rather full and took me a while to decide what ones to go with – i discounted a few on price at Southwell (Evans/Balding have couple of fancied shorties) and there were quite a few in the two C6 6f sprints – I couldnt decide with a few niggles over all of them (3.10 loads of front runners and not sure how that will pan out) so I thought I would just leave them – no doubt one or more may go in but you cant back them all.

      Moving forward with AW especially – may be a case of just following some of the trainer micro angles, or just betting on a certain race type, getting to know them and sticking with it. 5/6f sprints for example.

      Top 2 in 3.40 crop up for the Sires/Dam Sires but they are both 3s and I couldnt decide, preference for Air of York but then has stamina to prove, which makes 3s skinny enough imo.

      Scottishe – yes can see why, esp at prices, but doesnt win very often and very inexperienced jockey on top- think he is the biggest price on my notepad so dont want him going in!! The ‘race type’ is the only negative though, and a repeat of penultimate run would see him in with a chance.

      Josh Wright 24/11/15 10:42 AM Reply


  • 3.00 ling vikehal at 6/1 looks interesting 2.20 sed wakhan …might be worth an each way double …2.40 south astra hall …couple of small bets today today nothing strong…

    harold 24/11/15 10:58 AM Reply


    • Good Luck – yes can see why Vikehal – 3m looks fine, as does heavy based on that plumpton run over 26f where he only emptied in last furlong or so – unexposed, trainer decent record at track with chasers, and with Josh up. Him and Chase The Spud do look most interesting to me. Find it odd they have messed around with distance so much though – and does need to prove it in a truly run race over this trip in this ground.

      Josh Wright 24/11/15 11:05 AM Reply


  • Welcome back josh,hope you cleared out the head,very necessary at times to get away and come back with freshness.Got 10/1 last night on cumbrian farmer,was 14/1 for 10 seconds with bet365,have to move up a mountain to get a better internet connection,its a dire race so anything could win it.TJ dreaper comes over from Ireland with 3 horses 2 running in the 2.50,one 7/1 and drifting,the other 14/1 and solid,brian hughes on the outsider native que,i took a chance on the 14/1 shot,be interesting what happens in live market

    gerry 24/11/15 11:37 AM Reply


    • Hi Gerry, cheers – yes was nice to have a few days without looking at a race or betting (bar the systems!) Hopefully that has helped clear the mind after a volatile couple of months. Hard work is the only way to rediscover form. Ah was he 10s, well you have got a lot of value there – money still coming thankfully, as it is for his other one. I have a feeling I know what is going to happen!!

      Yes – plenty of dire racing today, not a day to go too crazy. Yes the Dreaper raiders are interesting, good luck.

      Josh Wright 24/11/15 11:49 AM Reply


  • Well done on the stats josh,2 nice winners,had the value on deep resolve,think there will be strong words in the swinbank yard,dont often leave the money behind.ardent stats followers would have also picked up a 9/2 on storm forecast,just missed out on native que but got a good run nonetheless,as always price is paramount,we will get there once we have value.again well done

    gerry 24/11/15 3:48 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gerry – yes the micro systems keep delivering while my slump continues – but it was nice to highlight a few that got well backed and if you keep doing that over time you do just fine. Swinbanks was very well backed but I couldnt really see an excuse. Yes Native Que looked good for a time, and Slack’s other runner nearly left me with egg on face but he needs further, effectively ridden from when tapes went up.
      I think all in that is around +20 points on blog in last 3 days if backing everything in qualifying range. Thankfully the ‘Portfolio’ is doing its job!

      Josh Wright 24/11/15 4:47 PM Reply


  • yes that’s great thing about having the old stats,no humming and hawing about class ground,horses recent form.I went through the nhf race one by one last night and couldn’t reason why storm forecast wasn’t fav,so it was great value in the end at 9/2,fontwell is bit poor on entries tomorrow but Malcolm has one at wetherby,bigbury bay is great value at 8/1 with bet365.trainer 2/3 on bumpers there

    gerry 24/11/15 5:14 PM Reply


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