Members Report: 19/11/15 (COMPLETE)

Henry Oliver had a winner ‘out of range’ for the Jumps Handicappers at 14/1. There was plenty of 12s about at times, as well as 16s – and was a reminder that price is only ever a guide – especially when on the boundary. He won’t go down in the official results for that system although I know a few of you had a nibble. He was 0/13 with horses priced over 12/1, (0/5 when priced 14/1, 2 places) – clearly not massive numbers on which to base a strict odds decision. His at 14s< may be worth following from now on. I think that was the first winner for a while for the micro systems ‘out of range’. Caroline Bailey’s got nabbed in a photo which was frustrating, but an exciting run nonetheless. 

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I am away for a few days from tomorrow in Budapest. Micro System qualifiers will continue to be posted, unless my lap top gets stolen! But, I doubt there will be anything else until Monday. Given my form a break may do me some good!

I am analysing ok but that final decision is poor at the moment – summed up by Big Society’s easy win (leaving Keel Haul on Sat) – staring at my noted pad banging my head against the table – solid placed form at a higher level,well backed on stable debut LTO when not liking the blinkers – CD form in heavy, trainer 6/11 in last 30 days – 9/1 or so. All of that written in my notes, and as indicated in write up he would go close if all clicking. The signs were there and I bottled the race. Still, i didnt lose anything but another value bet dodged. 

Thankfully my ability to research a profitable micro angle or two is still intact. 

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I have previewed the Fixed Brush Hurdle from Haydock on Saturday, for the Daily Punt Blog – and at this stage Broxbourne was my EW fancy at 12/1 (PP,BS) 14/1 (888 sport,32 Red) – If she runs it will go down as a 1 point EW bet. The trends/stats/reasoning will be sent out by them on Friday I think. 

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I had a look at the 1.30 Market Raisen tomorrow. Fergal O’Brien is 4/14, 6 places with his handicap chasers here and his Rio Milan looks to have a decent chance – 6s underestimates his chance a tad. Cloudy Bob doesnt win very often but everything looks in his favour here, at 7s in places. I think it could be between the two but I don’t like backing two at that price really and I couldn’t decide which to plump for. Maybe I should just back them both. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

12.50 Winc – Market Option (16/1 or under)

3.40 Market R – Airbridge (12/1 or under) 

Jumps Handicappers 

2.40 Market R – Silver Shuffle (12/1 or under)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • Josh,Dont forget James Evans chasers at Market Rasen Vent Nevernais 3.10,has good record generally at MR ,A miral Colognes looks good value at 16/1 and Noble Leader 3.40.Liam Treadwell has good record in all grades for the trainer

    gerry 18/11/15 6:56 PM Reply


  • Price cap is just confusing …smartmax was 16/1 backed into 12/1 in a six horse race …so if being 16/1 in a sixteen horse race it wouldn’t be a bet …prices can also fluctuate I for one aint got time to be checking them all day …Dazinski was 16/1 night before and in a 15 runner race would certainly have been a bet for me…prices should be judged on size of race quite simple…

    harold 19/11/15 5:59 AM Reply


  • Annoying when betting should be quite simple ..that’s a small secret that makes up part of my betting …common sense can never be undervalued when it comes to betting..

    harold 19/11/15 6:05 AM Reply


  • I think that you beat yourself up too much Josh. Given that the weather in the UK is pretty sticky it’s extremely difficult to make a case for any horse with some degree of confidence. But your blog is still in profit overall and clearly you still have your fans. That’s what counts.

    The weather in Hungary surely has to be better than what we have here, so Enjoy your break in Budapest. (And take your sunglasses just in case!)

    Tony Richards 19/11/15 10:36 AM Reply


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