Members Report: 17/11/15 (COMPLETE)

Re-Cap

The Geegeez Geegee (well done to the owners, a few of whom I believe read this blog and is one of the syndicate horses of THE blog,geegeez.co.uk) made it a profitable day with the ‘jumps handicappers’ finishing 1st and 2nd. Val Darc fell with over a circuit to go. He jumped well on the whole LTO, and for the first few fences here – before failing to take off – it was a horrid fall and thankfully he got up ok. He couldnt lead but it was far too early to know how he was going to run. Flint’s horse was sent off at 12/1, having been 25s. He travelled well into the straight and looked like he was coming to take it up. A mixture of the ground and that stiff finish looked to find out his stamina I think as he emptied quite quickly – not one to give up on just yet. 

My ability to pick winners has deserted me for the last 7 days or so but in general I am finding value and the winners and more importantly the profit,will come. I have written a new ‘My Racing Week’ post which touches on last week’s results. 

All in the portfolio is on +40.25 points since the start of November if backing everything, (tips/shortlist/micro systems). That includes -11 points for the Cheltenham Micro system, including all of Pipes, which I personally have been avoiding in recent days. I know the more selective amongst you (esp for the micro systems) may have bigger profits than that, but so far the ‘portfolio’ approach is doing what I hoped it would. I just need to start adding to the +9.75 points generated from my tips/shortlist to date. 

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THE SHORTLIST 

12.10 Ling – Cape Canaille – 4/1 BV/PP/ BFSport – Noseda is 3/12, 6 places with his 2yo debutants at the track. He takes on newcomers from SBS (2/16, 5 places at track with 2yo debutants) and Gosden (3/32 with 2yo debutants here) and it looks to be between the three. Those with form need to take a step forward.Given Noseda tends to run likely types here, 4s looks decent enough. The early market indications are that he will be ready to go here first time up. 

2.00 South – Dandy Duke – 6/1 (BV/LAD/WH) George/Brennan are 6/18, 10 places in handicaps at the track, George is 1/4, 2 places with his handicap debutants here. I don’t think there is much depth to this race. The question is over his fitness and he clearly needs to leave some disappointing runs in non-handicaps behind. He is the only ‘could be anything’ type in the race really and he could have plenty in hand. 6s feels big enough to find out, and the market well may guide us to his chance. George, like many modern trainers, can get them fit enough at home if he wants to. A few of his have gone in after breaks this season. 

2.35 South – Florrie Boy – 4/1 (general) – I have another micro angle ticking along in background. Twister’s Handicap Hurdle debutants –  Top 6 LTO, down 1, same or up 1 class from LTO. With those priced 11/2 or under he is 13/22, 14 places +29 since 2010. He takes on a Ben Pauling horse here who looks the main danger – although he is only 1/22 with his handicap debutants to date – but he is a trainer going places. One niggle is there could be a slow pace and if it turns into a bit of a dash turning in, he may run out of track. But, I think this looks a two horse race and as such 4s allows the chance to be taken. He will be fit and we should get a run for our money. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

No Qualifiers

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Signing off 19.11, 16/11/15

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • My point was ..on Saturday BIDOUREY and BROOK mentioned twice once in chelenham micro systems once in November micro systems ..was asking a simple question would these count twice in profit or losses …last week micro systems had over 40 bets sometimes three in a race ..can be confusing

    harold 17/11/15 4:34 AM Reply


    • Yes is the simple answer, they would both be counted as they were separate systems. That was a one off due to the Cheltenham Micro angle. When there are more in a race that you are comfortable with, or more bets then you are comfortable with I can only advise that you use your own approach to decide whether to back them or not.

      Josh Wright 17/11/15 8:07 AM Reply


  • My main point and why iam quite critical overall is the main tips ..i.e the tips with stipulated points ..the tips that are based on racing knowledge and not stats ..stats don’t require any in depth racing study …last 16 weeks …results are 8 actual winners in 72 ..minus around 13 points .and that’s if hitting every top price and managing 5th place etc….

    harold 17/11/15 5:06 AM Reply


    • You are right to critical of my tips in recent weeks – i agree with you on that front. My performance on the ‘tipping’ has been below par and I need to improve, which I am working hard to do. I am more comfortable with stats research, and trying to create profitable micro systems etc. The Shortlist is considered as well, trying to apply the stats and look at the race in some depth – which may well put you off!

      I am not charging £40 quid a month here, not charging a penny. If you want proven tips/winners/profits with a longer track record than me on this blog, then there are a few decent ones out there that charge reasonable fees.

      I have said you should paper trade my tips etc if you are not comfortable backing them. The nature of my approach and the odds on most of the horses means it doesnt take many winners for those figures to look a lot healthier.

      Josh Wright 17/11/15 8:14 AM Reply


      • You tell em josh and if your in this sport for free tips because your to lazy to work it out your self maybe you need a new hobby

        Joseph Shannon 17/11/15 9:12 AM Reply


  • Hello josh agree entirely with your awnsers to Harold’s questions for goodness sake Harold stop being so cynical after all this is free information everyone is getting on here and in my opinion is excellent, I know everybody is entitled to there opinion but come on the work and time josh is putting in to do this is brilliant by anybody’s standards.

    Steve 17/11/15 8:37 AM Reply


  • Fully agree with you Steve, this is one of the only websites I use on a daily basis to make a decision on which horse I may or may not back. Many thanks Josh.

    David 17/11/15 9:27 AM Reply


  • Thanks Josh and yes it was a great day with The Geegeez yesterday a feeling that beats any winning bet.Plus how can anyone moan about a free service that makes a profit………keep up the good work Josh

    Tony 17/11/15 9:45 AM Reply


    • Cheers Tony. Yep I can imagine that – felt that feeling once of a horse coming into contention (before fading!) so I imagine that winning feeling is pretty special. Plenty left in the tank as well once really asked to win his race. Beat a solid yardstick in second. A few more wins in him yet before the handicapper gets to him I would think. Well done. Hope the winning owners Champagne tasted good!

      Josh Wright 17/11/15 9:49 AM Reply


  • Yes it certainly tasted good……….I must admit and dare I say he did seem to win with a little in hand after a little idle but who knows what the dreaded handicapper will do………..?

    Tony 17/11/15 10:24 AM Reply


  • Are you finally deserting Mission Complete today Josh (Southwell 12.25)?
    Must admit he is in my handicap system I do and will support again…….

    Tony 17/11/15 10:52 AM Reply


    • I have now – I looked at him for a time, 10/3 probably fair given oppo – but massive R4 and he is now 2/1 – I cant touch that. If on a going day he could win like a 1/2 shot against this lot, but who knows. Good Luck!

      Josh Wright 17/11/15 10:57 AM Reply


  • as to Josephs comments ..I myself back my own tips the ones that have made me a profit every month for well over a year now…..This site is free and indeed one of the best sites out there …like this site as it gives you a say and Josh takes it as constructive criticism think he knows that.. .his stats are excellent and indeed use some of them myself ..

    harold 18/11/15 4:07 AM Reply


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