Members Report: 16/11/15 (COMPLETE)

 

TIP 

2.00 Plumpton – Val DArc – 1 point win 4/1 (general) 

This horse is one of my ‘eye catchers’ that I have started to highlight in my ‘weekly diary’ – He has ran well on his last two starts for this trainer, probably needing the run first time out, and bumping into a good one last time at Warwick – where he had the rest comfortably beaten. The trainer is up and coming and has had 8 runners in the last 30 days, 1 won and 6 have been in the top 3. The Tizzard horse is the danger and is also unexposed, he should go well but hopefully the selection has track position and can put pressure on those in behind. This track is a tough place to make up ground over the last couple. Val D’Arc does like to lead, and with Dancing Dik in here that could be tough – but there is no evidence yet that he has to lead. So, he could track him, or with younger legs just get to the front anyway – Dancing Dik downs tools if is taken on so he should not get in a battle all the way round. 4s seems fair to me for a chaser who should have more to come. 

 

THE SHORTLIST 

2.15 Leic – Eddie Maurice – 25/1 (Lad, WH, 888, 20/1 general) 

I cant let this horse go off at this price given that his trainer is 3/3 here with handicap hurdlers, he is unexposed in this sphere and it is impossible to say that he cant win. At those odds I couldn’t resist. This is only his 6th hurdle start, and his 3rd in handicaps. He ran well for a long way last time out before fading, suggesting he may have needed the run. Race conditions look fine and I was happy to take a chance at those odds. I think he will run well for a long way and we could have something to cheer jumping the last couple. The trainer has had 10 runners in last 14 days, 3 have placed, so they have been going ok, if unspectacular.

I looked at Whispering Harry – Oliver is in flying form and is 2/5, 3 places with his handicap hurdlers here. This horse is 14lb above his last hurdle win and could need the run – he is weak in the market and given how progressive he was as a chaser, it looks like this may be a pipe opener for a return to fences NTO. I could have that wrong but he has weakened on both his seasonal reappearances to date. He could go well at a price we shall see. Clearly there is a Pipe qualifier below, but I am keeping a watching brief until signs of life – this one may signal the return to form, but he isnt strong in the market either yet. 

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Signing off 09.25. Good luck with your bets. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

2.15 Leic – Bladoun (pipes are running atrociously, now 2/60 odd in last 30 days, so caution advised. It will turn around at some point. His Cheltenham horses again travelled well in general before cutting out. Quite a few were running after breaks but getting them fit isn’t usually a problem for the Pipes.)

Jumps Handicappers 

3.05 Plump – Laughton Park / The Geegeez Geegee

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Come on The Geegeez!!!!!!!! I shall be cheering him on from the stands at Plumpton tomorrow
    Pipe’s horses are certainly running very similar races,on the bridle and looking good and then just blowing up in the home straight.

    tony 15/11/15 6:53 PM Reply


    • Hi josh
      James b mentioned a new system he devised a few days ago and selected a horse at Lingfield that won. Can you or James b let us know what the system is please

      Thanks

      Sandip

      Sandip 15/11/15 8:16 PM Reply


  • gone for two tomorrow at plumpton venetian lad 2.00 likes the course and going wins at different times of year good jockey onboard cant quite understand why hes 16/1 when most of the others would prefer better ground and not many of them have won at this distance. Catchin time 2.35 wont mind the going and distance down to a mark near is last winning mark and most of the others are not winners over jumps or just won the once 6/1 seems a good price to me

    antony 15/11/15 10:14 PM Reply


    • Can see why you would like VL him at a price – but he is 10 now, has been a bit out of form, and faces plenty of unexposed ones in here. He could go well, but I have had fingers burned with 10yo+ chasers 1 too many times this season and in general I want younger legs on my side. But he is 16s, not a 4/1 shot.

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 9:52 AM Reply


  • Hi josh nice to see you have only picked too for tomorrow as some times picking to menny can cloud your judgment I would like to see you try and keep it to a maximum of four as we all know that we can’t back them all their for giving yourself a better chance of winning good luck mate

    Joseph Shannon 15/11/15 10:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Joseph – I have picked two now – what was up before were the micro system potential qualifiers – they are not my choice so to speak -if there is a qualifier in line with the rules of those systems that I have researched they get put up here. They are posted the evening before to allow readers to use the info in their own form analysis and I always recommend looking at the horse and the form of the trainer – ie with Bladoun – given form of yard I cant go lumping on a full 1 point and at the moment have nothing on, for example. I have also dodged the VW horses at Cheltenham which was hopefully clear.

      Take your general point – less is more – and 1-2 bets across the tips or shortlist is a comfortable level.

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 9:41 AM Reply


      • I have to admit I am a bladoun fan and now is the time to back you won’t get a better price and you Can back him each way and make a profit

        Joseph Shannon 16/11/15 10:52 AM Reply


  • Why mention a horse twice in micro systems ..does it count twice in profit and losses …40 plus bets in micro systems alone …no mention of profit losses this week

    harold 16/11/15 12:52 AM Reply


    • I don’t get your system points? No horse is mentioned twice in the same micro system – There are the monthly trainers, the jumps handicappers, Emma Lavelle, and there were the Cheltenham Micro – they are all treated separately and results recorded separately.

      I review the micro systems every month, as I have done for August/Sept and October. Mentioning them daily is pointless – and when you have an iffy spell, such as last week – actually consistently focussing on the negatives is no good for the mindset! I reflect on the week’s tipping/shortlist results in my ‘Weekly Diary’ which I am about to get on with.

      Everything is clear Harold – I don’t like the tone of that last comment, suggesting I have something to hide. It is all here in black and white on the blog and I would suggest you keep your own records if you want more regular updates. And you wrote that at 12.52 AM – 52 minutes into the week! you are a hard taskmaster 🙂

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 9:45 AM Reply


  • After read Josh’s reply to my email i’m afraid it’s a case of back to the drawing board. The two selections 1 win 1 n/r followed the next day by Power up which is still running now lol i will be emailing Josh back when i’ve finished re working my attempt at a system. What i would recomend Sandip is going through all of Josh’s posts with a note pad! Had a lovely win from Kayf blanco 6/1 backed into 4/1 favorite on the saturday (McPherson 90day trainers) Since the end of october placing 3/10 2/7 f/6 5/7 5/9 1/11

    james.b 16/11/15 1:07 AM Reply


    • Not a ‘start from scratch’ job though! 🙂

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 9:59 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Looking at leicester 2.15 today, R Flint 3-3 100% travelling a long way with Eddiemaurice
    Henry Oliver 40% Whispering Harry goes on the ground and Oliver is red hot at the moment
    any ideas?

    Bryn 16/11/15 7:41 AM Reply


    • Yep with you on Eddiemaurice, agree – 25s looked way too big and we should get a run for our money with him hopefully. Same with Whispering Harry- I couldnt put anyone off at that price – but his hurdle mark is way above his last win, and while it looks good in context of his chase form, they are completely different and comparing is pointless. He is clearly a better chaser – his record fresh is not great – although Oliver can clearly get them fit, but it was puzzling why they are not starting him over fences again. We shall see, he could drift to a price where you want an interest bet on given points you highlight etc.

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 9:49 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’ve backed Eddiemaurice myself as he’s a decent price. My main concern with him, is the ground. Seems to prefer quicker going?
    Good to firm 6 runs / 4 wins / 4 places. Today’s ground (hurdle course) is forecast good to soft, the horse is 5 runs / 0 wins / 1 place on good to soft.
    Hope I’m wrong 🙂
    Keep up the good work, good luck all!
    Marcus.

    Waftycranker 16/11/15 10:13 AM Reply


    • Hi Marcus – I would say he has yet to prove he can’t handle it – and as such, at that price, for me you have to take a chance. If he were 4s or something then maybe that would be enough of a concern to leave him. He wasnt beaten far on the flat a couple of times in softer ground, and while he was poor at Bangor that could be for a few reasons, including being weak say – he is only 4, those months since then may have strengthened him up a bit more. Anyway, he is 25s and that allows the odd niggle here and there – you dont need many to go in over time to be doing just fine!

      Josh Wright 16/11/15 10:19 AM Reply


  • 215L I’ve backed Bodega at BF prices as these conditions are ideal and he hadn’t shown his full potential 2 years ago.
    I seemed to start a gamble on Moreece 235P when I took double figure prices!
    Other likely lads:-
    145L Double Chocolate
    35W Corporal Maddox
    525W Mr Rock

    Chris 16/11/15 10:43 AM Reply


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