Members Report: 10/11/15 (COMPLETE)

A couple of winners for the systems kept the portfolio ticking along. Depending on whether you backed the Clive Cox runners (2 of which drifted out of range quite late in the day,and ran as such) you would have made between +7 +6 and +9  +8 points (including jumps handicappers) minus the two on the shortlist. Still, a decent enough day all round. VW had another winner 11/2 (4.5/1 or so after R4) and Fanshawe kept up his impressive record with handicappers at Kempton that ran on the Flat LTO with a winner at 13/2. As the winter progresses this angle will go a bit quiet I imagine, but one to keep following next year. When I have some time I will dive into the winter AW and see what we can find of interest/use.  

The Shortlist was frustrating. Mission Impossible is just a character and is maybe best left alone – no McCoy to get him round now. But, we shall see, he may pop up in a C5 handicap at some point. No run for our money there at all. The Bailey horse was a decent bet – 8/1 backed into 7/2 and he ran well, just running out of track. He probably made a few too many sloppy jumps, including the last, and that may have cost him. Frustrating. A longer run after the last and he would have won, so it will be interesting where they go with him next. Clearly handles soft and they will get a few wins out of him at a lowly level, esp if tidying up his jumping, but he is inexperienced and that is racing. I did think he was going to win turning for home so that has to go down as disappointing. 

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A quick note on the systems. Cox has had a couple that, depending on when you looked, you may have backed, that subsequently drifted out of range. This happens when you have odds caps and from my experience, over time, you will back the odd winner that drifts out of range, to make up for this frustration. That is the nature of the beast. 

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As always, I update this post the evening before with system qualifiers, and others of interest if I have time. The post is complete by 10am on the day of racing, 11am at weekends. 

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THE SHORTLIST 

1.00 Ling – Minstrels Gallery 4/1 (general) – Wadham has only sent 8 handicap hurdlers here, but 2 have won and 5 have won or placed. A small sample yes, but is suggests she targets her handicap hurdlers here. Having dotted up at Fakenham last season he then ran in some very decent C2 hurdles at Cheltenham, Aintree and Kempton. He ran well at the first two, and maybe the ground was too lively at Kempton. He could improve again here and if fully tuned up could take some stopping. While Wadaham could have a better record with horses after a break I have learnt to my cost already this season – if she wants them to be fit, they will be. 4s allows that chance in what looks a fairly weak race – nowhere near as hot as some of those he ran in last season. 

2.10 Hunt – Forthefunofit 7/2 (general) – Jonjo has a decent record here with all his handicappers and they are generally well backed. He is 14/56, 24 places with his handicap hurdlers here. This horse ran well last season including winning over CD and if fully tuned up has every chance of going in again. He is open to more improvement and looks sure to go well. 

2.40 Hunt – Rock N Rythm 4/1 (BF/BV) 7/2 general – Another for Jonjo who is 8/26, 10 places with his handicap chasers here. He is also 2/9, 3 places with all handicap debutants at the track. This horse is in the ‘could be anything’ category – i always find it interesting when horses go straight from novice hurdles to fences the following season – to me I think that suggests they like him, they believe he is a chaser in the making and they dont want to waste any more time than they have to. He has some decent enough novice form, showing plenty of ability. This is his first chase in public and after a break, but given his profile and the trainer stats, 4s seemed fair enough to me. The market may well guide as to his chance. 

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Stats guide users will notice some strong stats for the jumps handicappers below, with the latter two most interesting. The market will guide for the Bailey runner but he could go off out of range, after a lengthy lay off. 

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Signing off 08.15, 10/11/15

Good Luck

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MICRO SYSTEMS

November Trainers 

2.20 Sedg – Rear Admiral (12/1 or under)

2.50 Sedg – Saints and Sinners (12/1 or under)

Jumps Handicappers 

1.40 Hunt – Global Domination (12/1 or under)

2.20 Sedg – Nautical Twilight (12/1 or under)

3.20 Sedg – Turtle Cask (12/1 or under)

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Bonus…D Nicholls has an AW runner tomorrow for a system I researched some time ago, about this time last year I think. It ticks along – looks at his runners at Wolvs/Southwell in C5/6 handicaps or claimers, 14/1 or under (a guide,has had odd winner 16/1) – one runner tomorrow…Hit The Lights, in the 7.40. I will dig this out and post about it in next week’s diary maybe. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Do the jump handicapers count to the points …10 bets today if they do how do you get plus 9 points …

    harold 09/11/15 6:22 PM Reply


    • Sorry – quite correct, I did include those and pulled an extra point from somewhere. Two winners won 11 points, minus Ladwade Lad and the two Jumps handicappers – none of Cox qualified – 1st one never qualified, other two could well have been backed if betting this morning. Obviously jumps handicappers will be over the year – and out of all of them I would use them as more of a guide – but, that is personal preference – if in doubt I back them, as I did with the two today. And as I have said they all have to profitable to back systematically so that you can have confidence to back them as such.

      Josh Wright 09/11/15 6:35 PM Reply


  • another great day josh,well done,added 12 points with bayswing,viron and abbreviate but these are just my own analysis,the compaire on atr must have been choking on his words,bravos this this bravos that,abbreviate not bred for distance,won as he liked

    gerry 09/11/15 6:54 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gerry and well done, good punting, glad you had a decent day. Yep – using breeding as a main guide for those types of races can make you look silly – until they have or haven’t done it on track you never really know. But, that is why racing is good, at least that chap had a strong opinion and credit to him for sticking his neck out.

      Josh Wright 10/11/15 7:34 AM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for clearing that one …and your right about price caps can go either way I certainly don’t complain when a winner drifts…

    harold 09/11/15 7:46 PM Reply


  • Only had my trainer track profile 4 or 5 days started of not to good so I thought give it time tonight I picked my bets out for tomorrow blow me I picked The same three bets as you did it’s nice to know that I am reading it right and yes I find it interesting and helpful lets hope for a bit of luck joe

    Joseph Shannon 09/11/15 7:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Joe…you talking about the jumps handicappers above? They are not from the stats guide… I will post link to that report tomorrow…BUT..you are right to pick them out as the stats in the guide do point to those. I always suggest looking at the horse but some of stats strong enough to back systematically. Can take some time to get used to,and I have missed plenty of winners that other users have found. I am sure there are some others readers who may chip in with advice etc.

      Josh Wright 09/11/15 9:18 PM Reply


  • Really annoyed at gary priestleys comment on twitter yesterday basically calling everyone MUGS for backing “LAMPS” yesterday cause they should have realised the horses previous antics.Does that mean Chris who does SOTD on geegeez is a mug.I know a few people that bet on SOTD blind thats insulting to say the least.I think his 2 winners in 2 days has gone to his head and should re-think his attitude to money back for NO RUN.Fair play is all we ask.

    mozzer 10/11/15 1:41 AM Reply


    • I wouldn’t be too annoyed in truth – I haven’t seen what he said but to an extent there is an element of truth – albeit I would not have used that word. I am a Gold Subscriber and I follow SOTD – it is the only ‘tip’ I follow outside of my own bets. And I did back Lamps. I got him at a price comfortably above SP so in that sense got value. I also follow Gary on Twitter although I dont back his selections regularly – but boy can he pick them long term. Gary is right about the horse’s previous antics and that should have been a consideration – to the point where, given his behaviour, as someone who backed him it is hard to feel aggrieved and moan about it. I knew he had that in his locker – the decision is whether you think the price, in the context of his chance against the oppo, is worth the risk. Thankfully the bookies offered refunds as he should not have come under rules – but he did come under rules and they didnt have to do so. But, any punter getting really irate with that situation is a bit silly in my opinion – it was mildly annoying but at the time it was only 1 point lost. I dont for one moment agree that knowing his about his antics means he should never have been a bet – I dont agree with that. That is racing. Gary is entitled to his opinion as much as anyone else – and life would be boring without such opinions. There are plenty of mugs about though, most of them on twitter haha – but, readers of geegeez, and hopefully this blog – are not amongst them. Having said that, even I occasionally venture into ‘muggy’ behaviour!

      Josh Wright 10/11/15 7:30 AM Reply


  • Speaking of Lucy Wadham,she has impressive record on Lingfield AW,3yo with Jim Crowley Steering,remember backing a 14/1 few weeks back although its a small sample

    gerry 10/11/15 9:03 AM Reply


  • Took the 11/2 eary price on bivouac last night,at least im 2 points to the good regardless of result,jonjos yard not exactly on fire at the moment,maybe its McCoy effect,is tom scu on the sidelines at the moment,the dive in david pipes stats seems to have coincided?its only my opinion but I believe that the jockey is an often overlooked aspect

    gerry 10/11/15 9:31 AM Reply


    • well yes regardless of how Bivouac does now that is a good bet, decent price. Yes Jonjo a bit in and out, but hoping the Huntingdon air sparks them to life – although both a bit weak in market so we shall see! Yes Tom Scu still on sidelines – stable a bit cold at moment – they usually do very well at this week’s Open meeting, and a poor showing their would sound alarm bells. I am never put off by a jockey if I like the price – do look at their track stats etc but they can be misleading. And also their overall SR. I am more interested from the ‘behaviour’ side – who are they riding for and why, trainer/jockey combos etc. Think you could be right that it is overlooked – but a question of what you look at. Those that have been on Pipes are capable riders and they are not reasons for quite a few running below par. In my opinion anyway.

      Josh Wright 10/11/15 9:35 AM Reply


  • Thanks josh for your reply and yes it is the handicappers just to let the readers know my own tip for today is Mr bachester 1.30 ling Kerry lee stable in great form

    Joseph Shannon 10/11/15 9:54 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Have just read that the one of the greatest jockey’s of all time has died at the age of 63. Pat Eddery will be sadly missed

    Allan 10/11/15 11:09 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, This is my first day following your blogs etc, You are the first guy to have similar thinking on trends, trainer stats and trends as myself only you do it much better. I have always liked systems but never found one which gives me the “wow” factor. I will follow you with interest only problem 11am on weekends especially Sundays in winter Saturdays in summer clashes with my golf days. I hope I don’t miss many winners.
    My only bet before I opened your email today was BIVOUAC. Henderson with Fehily on board his only runner of the day for both of them.

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 10/11/15 11:16 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,many thanks for your comment and thanks for checking out the blog. It should be an enjoyable journey! Yes the systems etc are doing well,and have been since I started with that approach on the blog in August. I post system selections the night before when I can,and will try to at weekends. That 11am is normally to allow enough time for a big race preview or something,and that time just depends on what I was up to the evening before!! I should try and get more done on a Friday afternoon really. Good luck with that bet,market suggests you may have got the winner although I am hoping jonjos can do the business!

      Josh Wright 10/11/15 11:31 AM Reply


  • 2.40 HUNT ROCK N RHYTHM …2.10 HUNT BIVOUAC 3.00 LING GORE ISLAND 6.40 WOLVE INVESTITURE all the horses I looked at today …might have a few small bets on a couple of these but no main bet for me..

    harold 10/11/15 1:28 PM Reply


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