Members Report: 09/11/15 (COMPLETE)

 

***

RESULTS 

Having gone through last week’s posts – the portfolio pulled in +55.75 points if you backed EVERYTHING posted, to 1 point stakes (unless stated,ie 2 points on BRP). and got best prices at time of posting. 

‘Tips’ (inc BRP) were 1/8, -4.5  (although I would have tipped Saroque 12/1 if we were not already backing him – in general my judgement has been ok, but could be better) Included a head second at 5/1. 

Shortlist – 3/9, +30.75 

Systems – 4/17 + 22.5 ……….. Jumps Handicappers 1/6, +7. 

I don’t think we will be repeating that every week, (although we can but dream!) but plenty of points there to play with moving forward! I think that is the best punting week I have had for quite some time. The systems will naturally even themselves out over time as well and I dare say we can expect a few losers, that is the nature of that approach. 

***

THE SHORTLIST 

12.30 South – Mission Complete 7/2 (general) – Jonjo does ok with his handicap chasers here, 10/41, 18 places. This is a weak race and the most consistent and likely winner is probably Morlands George – he is sure to go well but is 9lb higher than for last win and while still progressive does have that to prove. Mission Complete is a character and may need some rousting, depending on his frame of mind. But, he has a lot in his favour. All race conditions are fine, he is very very well handicapped if putting it all together, even more so with the claim. Of most interest was the fact that in all handicaps he is 3/5, 4 places in C5, (3/5, 4 places when OR100<) This is the first time he has dropped into this class for some time, and if the break has done him good he should be thereabouts. The jockey has placed 4 times on him and in his short career to date is 0/8, 4 seconds in chases. Hopefully this is his first win. Given how poor a race this is 7/2 seemed fair enough to me.

3.45 South – Carlo Rocks (8/1 PP) 7/1 general – Caroline Bailey is (was at time I produced ‘Stats Guide’, otherwise known at Trainer Track Profiles) 6/17, 7 places here with her handicap hurdlers, for +42 SP, suggesting a few at nice odds. She is also 3/7, 4 places with her handicap debutants here (that stat taken from Geegeez Gold report), 2 of those in handicap hurdles. So, stats wise, plenty going for the horse. Given he has been running in novice races his form is irrelevant given the aim will have been to get him a handicap mark. These stats will be profitable to back over time, hopefully starting with this one. 

***

That is all for today, quite a few system bets as well. Signing off 09.03, 09/11/15. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

Williams (16/1 or under) 

1.00 South – Rosa Fleet

Cox (14/1 or under)

3.00 Kempt – Fruity 

5.10 Kempt – Tears of The Sun 

5.40 Kempt – Perfect Bounty 

 

All-Weather ‘Switchers’ (both Fanshawe,any odds)

3.35 Kempt – Knight Owl

5.10 Kempt – Landwade Lad 

 

Jumps Handicappers 

3.25 Carl – Resolute Reformer / Retrieve The Stick (both 12/1 or under) 

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I have left reply to alans query on yesterdays post.josh Its great service here that I pop into daily,i spent years following tipsters and buying crap systems like most thinking theres some magic attached and being bitterly disappointed,so just decided I couldn’t do any worse,i like to use my own ways as explained on the reply,theres nothing better than finding a winner that the experts say cant win

    gerry 08/11/15 7:44 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gerry – agree with you about that feeling of finding a winner that others have dismissed, or that the ‘experts’ dont even mention. There is a lot of crap out there, and a few dodgy types, albeit some good stuff as well – but it can be hard to find. Appears like you have a decent approach to finding your own bets etc which is great to hear.

      Josh Wright 09/11/15 9:07 AM Reply


  • The important thing is to have fun and enjoy the sport not take it too seriously win or loose,if you are ahead at the end of the season.Sometimes you can over analyse things and tie yourself up in knots and doubts

    gerry 09/11/15 9:39 AM Reply


    • Well indeed, never a truer word spoken – and I have been guilty of tying myself up in plenty of knots in the past! yep main thing is to have fun, which is linked to not losing money full stop, and not losing money you cant afford to lose. As you say, a long term, seasons view, is important as it can be a roller-coaster ride. Having fun is a must!

      Josh Wright 09/11/15 9:45 AM Reply


  • Best way to avoid losers is looking at trainers record over last 14 days,if he is 0/10 its most likely that he will be 0/11 after next runner,you might miss the odd winner but you will look twice at what seems nailed on

    gerry 09/11/15 11:09 AM Reply


  • 12.30SOUTH MOORLANDS GEORGE ..to short though …2,35 SOUTH KING SAMBA LOOKS TO BIG AT 22/1… 3.10 SOUTH ABBREVIATE 7/2 slightly to short for me though..3.45 SOUTH carlo rocks …trainer does well at the course though thornton got a terrible record on her hurdlers ..3% in over 100 runs last 5 years ..not for me shaw or davies horse look to have a better chance ,,1.00 SOUTH ROSA FLEET ,,,1.15 CARL BAYWING ..managed to get 4/1 last night not value at current price though …3.25 CARL ROCKING BLUES interesting at 14/1..4.10 KEMP ..REAVER looks overpriced ..3.35 kemp kirks horse ..5.40 kemp tuites horse also golden wedding …all the horses I looked at today but just one bet on baywing..and half stake rosa fleet..

    harold 09/11/15 11:28 AM Reply


    • good luck Harold. Thornton is 3/12, 4 places on her handicap hurdlers here…those 3% stats relate to all hurdlers or just handicap hurdlers..agree that overall that is poor – but if it covers non handicap hurdlers not many of hers are sent out to win so could be misleading. As in shortlist the rest of the stats are strong and I couldnt resist 8/1 – but, differing opinions/approaches is what is great about this game. With you on Baywing – i also backed him last night but by by time I got round to updating post this morning he was around 2/1 and thought that was too short for the blog – and even more so in context of what price he was. Good luck with the rest.

      Josh Wright 09/11/15 11:41 AM Reply


  • me too Harold got 4/1 last night on that bayswing,did win like an even money shot,with nickys yard flying and brian on board was a solid bet with their overall track record

    gerry 09/11/15 1:29 PM Reply


  • Gerry, Left a query on yesterdays blog. When you mention a decent strike rate, what would you consider that to be? Thanks.

    Allan 09/11/15 3:17 PM Reply


  • generally I would be looking for 15- 20% alan,you might get a trainer who is profitable on maybe 12% but if you check which types you might find his hurdlers are only 10% but his chasers are 25%,some trainers are specialists with either chasers hurdlers or nhf but poor in other areas.another point is they aren’t always at top of table as regards wins to runners,great to see fanshawe adding to his impressive 4yr+ runners at Kempton with knight owl scooting up

    gerry 09/11/15 3:44 PM Reply


  • your welcome alan,were all in here to share our views

    gerry 09/11/15 3:46 PM Reply


  • Allan,a good example of this is gary moore at lingfield 16% overall and almost break even,now look at his chasers 32% for a profit of 17 points,jockey booking is son Joshua 41% on chasers,and 17% for his dad and almost break even,gores island in the 3pm race would be a solid bet if its a reasonable price.

    gerry 09/11/15 4:33 PM Reply


  • Gerry, Yes just checked what you said, and yes i can see exactly what you mean. Gores Island incidentally is 11/4 best price. Will be checking this a lot closer in future. Thanks again.

    Allan 09/11/15 6:20 PM Reply


  • Allan,not a great price indeed in a poor race,might drift as tresor de bontee might end up fav,thing I usually do in such cases is leave alone or halve stakes,.all the best,

    gerry 09/11/15 8:05 PM Reply


Post A Reply