Members Report: 07/11/15 (COMPLETE)

 

2.05 Wincanton…

***

Trends/Stats 

18 runnings / 203 runners / assuming 54 places up for grabs 

13/18 Top 4 LTO (13/110 runners), 34 places

4/18 fell/PU/DQ LT / 5th or worse LTO 1/53, 10 places 

No real stand out stats for age. Winners at all ages from reasonable number of runners. 

Carrying 11-8+ = 1/41, 6 places . 5.5% winners, from 20% of runners. Underperforming. 11-12 = 1/17, 1 place 

14/18 Top 5 in the market (14/98 runner) – 4/105 were 6th or worse

8-30 days since run and seasonal reappearance (121-365 days) are positive, no real stand out between them. 

2 runs this season: 4/21, 9 places – 19% , +9.5 SP

3/13, 5 places had won over  max of 2m5.5f – so, not being proven at distance no biggy, and some clearly improve for it. 

Other Stats of interest

0/16, 3 places ran in Grade 1 or 2 LTO

Track LTO (of interest, not an exclusive list)

Aintree – 0/20, 2 places 

Chelt – 4/35, 12 places 

Sand – 2/17, 6 places 

Wincanton – 3/12, 7 places – 25%, +19.5 SP 

**

Trainers 

Nicholls – 7/29,14 places (you reckon he targets this one as well??!) 

Pipe – 3/13, 5 places (no runner)

Tom George: 0/10, 1 place 

Tizzard – 0/5, 0 places 

***

BIG RACE PREVIEW 

2.05 Winc 

Alfie Spinner 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general) – 1 point EW (2 points total) 

***

Yes, I can hear people in white coats gathering outside to take me away – have I lost the plot – possibly – but, having had a look through, bar the fav – at the odds I think we will get a run for our money here. He could well be the last ‘veteran’ I back given how poorly every other horse aged double figures has ran for me so far – but I will chance it. 

So, what case can be made? Well, he doesnt win very often, but he usually runs his race and has placed in plenty of decent races – including when tipped EW in the Beecher last season, where he ran a gallant 4th a big odds. His recrod in this race in the last two seasons is 2nd and 2nd. (which was a 3rd but Young Master DQ) – The Ould Lad could well be this year’s The Young Master in this race, and we could be chasing his shadow – but out of them all Alfie Spinner could be leading the chasing pack. All race conditions are fine and if it eases then even better. He is carrying 10lb less on his back than in this race last year, and is 5lb lower. He should be up there, tracking the pace. He is a sound jumper, and will hopefully travel well into it. Younger legs may get the better of him over over the final couple of fences but I will chance that he can hang on for a place…this best is also inspired by a lack of confidence in most of the others…

Bar The Ould Lad who looks sure to go well…Carole’s Destrier has a big weight here and needs to step up again in reappearance. The trainer has gone a bit cold, 1/29 in last 14 days, and he needs to overcome a few of that stats above, albeit that is possible. Benvolio is weak in the market and this could be the prep for the Welsh National. He was some way behind Alfie Spinner in this last year and I see no obvious reason why that should be different this time if both running their races. He probably needs further although profile wise you could give him a squek. If he were stronger in market I would be more intrigued. Drop Out Joe and Fortgotten Gold have both gone up a lot- while weight rises are never the deciding factor for me, rises of 9/10lb require another almighty step forward. I think he races they won were quite weak on paper and they need to improve again. They could have got into this race on their old marks so it doesnt look ‘a plan’ a such. The former does just have his stamina to prove although should be ok, and the latter is now 0/9, 2 places in chases above C3 – he does look a different horse, but with trainers record in race he does have it to do – albeit I would like to see him go well as it looks like he has turned the corner. Theatrical Star has always found a couple too good above C3 – now 0/12, 3 places in chases. Bertie Boru and Wilton Milan both have stamina to prove – former now 0/7, 1 place beyond 2m6.5f, and he is a dodgy jumper. Not many improve horses from Nicholls and Skelton has a task on his hands with WM – a character. He has tried this kind of trip a couple of times without doing much, albeit yet to conclusively prove he doesnt stay. Still, some questions to answer. A Good Skin is open to improvement but does need to step up and the same can be said about Doing Fine and Royal P – his unexposed form looks below quite a few of these. 

So, I could be going mad with Alfie Spinner – but I think he will run his race, and the way he has ran in last two versions of this suggests it is always an early season target. There are enough unexposed ones in here to suggest I may have lost my marbles – maybe they cant all run badly enough for old Alfie to be up there – but, at 16s I will take a chance. Some of these look like they are coming here as an afterthought, which I don’t like for big races. It should be a good race to watch in any case. Good Luck with your fancies. 

***

SHORTLIST 

No Shortlist today – I have ran out of time. 

Another 10/1 winner yesterday added +8 more points to the pot. The two tips looked like they didnt run that well – yet to watch the races – the Hexham horse was a good bet – backing 6/4 shots at 9/2 consistently (i really do sound like a broke record) will pay – over time. 

Again, good luck to any stats guide users – I think some of you who follow the stats blind may have had a couple of decent winners yesterday that I looked at and left – which was frustrating for me, but on paper I am happy with why I left them- albeit it would have been nice if I hadnt. 

**

MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

Easterby (12/1 or under)

1.50 Donc – Hoof It 

2.50 Kelso – Classinaglass 

5.40 Chelm – Hoofalong 

Williams (16/1 or under)

12.55 Winc – King of Glory 

2.05 Winc – Royal Palladium 

3.05 Aint – Pepite Rose 

3.40 Aint – Russborough 

**

Fahey 2yo (16/1 or under)

1.15 Donc – In My Place 

 

Lavelle (14/1 or under) 

3.50 Winc – Chelsea Flyer 

 

Jumps Hanicappers 

2.40 Winc – Lily Waugh (12/1 or under)

***

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Two winners from the main tips since the beginning of October …you said three ….since 21st August been two actual winners out of 34 bets …iam I missing something somewhere sorry

    harold 06/11/15 4:32 PM Reply


  • Another good day Josh. Cracking shortlist tip! I had a balls-up myself today: I backed Destiny Awaits in the 3.50, thinking it ticked all the boxes for the Keith Reveley Hcp Hurdlers in your 10 trainers to follow booklet.

    Turns out this horse doesn’t even run for Keith, but his namesake initialled J Reveley!

    Ali 06/11/15 5:44 PM Reply


  • 14 weeks and no profit on the main tips …have to say shortlist and micro systems are doing far better and are worth coming on here for alone ..could I ask if this is down to bad luck or do you think there is something you might not be taking into account…I myself back my own bets so would only be fair to give these out for a short period as i know its easy to be critical with out putting yourself in the firing line .. everyone.feel free to be critical of my bets and any losses ..not had a losing month this year so far…

    harold 06/11/15 5:46 PM Reply


    • Harold, I am not ignoring you,I am out and will get back to you when I can. You are where you are,you know what profits you have etc and the results I have shared are the results,all in those links I posted. I think you may have started following the tip of the day trial just before a slump,it hit +20 odd before going back down to +4. That may explain it. Maybe paper trade my tips until Xmas or something. I am a fan of the portfolio approach,there will come a time when tips pull in bigger profits and systems/shortlist may slump. No point in keep looking backwards.

      Josh Wright 06/11/15 6:10 PM Reply


  • ould lad is to short for me even if it is nicholls training it I like DROP OUT JOE jockey does really well at this course and for trainer and the fact that hes riding this one and not venetias is a tip in itself horse will like the distance and as decent speed ratings sound ew bet at 11/1 bet 365

    antony 06/11/15 9:27 PM Reply


    • good shout. leapt beautifully last time

      Ali 07/11/15 1:52 AM Reply


    • Well done Anthony,top punting! Unable to watch race but can see you have had a good afternoon!

      Josh Wright 07/11/15 2:16 PM Reply


      • thanks josh that was a good win like to see rockawango go in now at kelso me other main ew bet

        antony 07/11/15 2:34 PM Reply


        • Was unsure whether he would stay on soft,but looks like stamina has won it so put that to rest.in any case 12s worth chance,correct to take on fav.in fairness he hadn’t proved that he couldn’t stay in a slog. Cheekpieces look to have done wonders,assume he jumped well again? Longsdon clearly another to keep onside on a Saturday now. GL with your others.

          Josh Wright 07/11/15 2:49 PM Reply


  • I’m putting my money on shotavodka in the 1:55 11/2’s looked too tempting considering the last run. I dont think pipe would send this one out over the distance so soon if he didnt like the chances 🙂

    james.b 07/11/15 1:37 AM Reply


  • Looked at the 1.05 KELSO.. ROC DE PRINCE ..would be a bet at 4/1 for me only negative is the Lucinda Russell runner,,,her form this year has been excellent especially recently ..she is usually an overbet trainer and has always been difficult to make any profits from …Flat turf I don’t touch after end of September but still interesting ..LITIGANT JACK DEXTER ..faheys older horses at Doncaster…also eurystheus for Appleby..but just be of interest for me…2.40 WINC..DESERT QUEEN ..interesting …trainer jockey fry does well at course 7/2 just a bit short for a hcp hurdle for me..3.15 WINC ZARIB interesting but to short also…3.50 WINC CHELSEA FLYER …backed down to 5/1 ..to many good trainers for me though..12.55 WINC ..KING OF GLORY ..way to short for a bet..6.10 CHELM .NOGUCHI ..if it had been S.de souza ridding would certainly be having a bet,,,7.40 CHELM ..TWO SUGARS …5/1 just slightly to short…Will be backing ROC DE PRINCE half stakes only bet for money but where a couple that came close..

    harold 07/11/15 10:29 AM Reply


    • ive backed roc aswell along with trainers other one at the the meeting rockwango trainer is on my trainer to follow list and both have decent instant expert profiles from geegeez racecards antony

      antony 07/11/15 11:48 AM Reply


  • Booom!!! Lily Waugh for Honeyballl

    Jo 07/11/15 2:50 PM Reply


    • Booom.indeed,was 16s at one stage,I had nibble at 14s,that will do. Jumps handicappers were due a winner mind!think that may ensure a small profit on rest of day/evens if the rest lose.

      Josh Wright 07/11/15 2:57 PM Reply


  • Cant understand why if using the stats you have at hand that your main tips over the last 3 and a half months have been so poor..7 actual winners out of 61 bets ..3 placed as in each way one of those fifth ..even when managing to get all your top prices it reads 67.25 points staked ..loss off just over 17 points ..if the 20/1 shot had lost it would be minus 30.50 points …half of the amount actually staked ..your obviously not using your stats and trying to be to clever with other factors…

    harold 07/11/15 5:23 PM Reply


  • ..A .HONEYBALL…handicap hurdles …GORDON ELLIOTT..handicap hurdles SUZY SMITH handicap hurdles JOHN QUINN all hurdles KEITH REVELEY handicap hurdles …all can be backed blind ..KIM BAILEY all chases and n.h .flat DR NEWLAND handicap chases JOHN QUINN all hurdlers J JEFFERSON all chasers ..HARRY FRY all chasers and n.h. flat .all can be backed blind but if dissecting them you can easily make good profits this year..HONEYBALL hcp hurdlers probally the best of these….ok having winners from stats but when I combine stats and other factors my profits soar ..why are yours the opposite

    harold 07/11/15 5:44 PM Reply


    • Well I have clearly been shit at tipping horses in recent months. The stats over a 12 month period are strong and clearly I havent been very good in the period! In part, the Shortlist is where I try and not be too clever with the stats etc – the tips are more in races I like looking at, and BRP using trends and stats. I won’t dignify ‘if this horse didnt win then x’ with a response. My tips are mainly big odds, esp Big race previews. That is the nature of the game.

      I really dont know what to say anymore. This is getting rather tiresome and I no longer have the energy to respond to you when you make comments like this. So, this is the final reply you will get from me on these matters. The results are there – judge me on them and decide how you play them. End of story. Those losses are not brilliant but at odds I play at are a few winners away from looking ok.

      I will however respond to your more positive comments when you put up selections, or even when critiquing any tips I put up – no issue with that. So, well done on a couple of your winners today, top tipping.

      I am off to have a bottle of wine – in part paid for from the +15 points the blog post pulled in today.

      Josh Wright 07/11/15 6:04 PM Reply


  • Thank you for the reply ..appreciated ..14 weeks main tips and big race reports have been at a loss .but your stats and short lists have been good ..sure its just a bad run but was just curious to your thoughts on it …

    harold 07/11/15 6:19 PM Reply


  • Overlooked jockey-Nico De Boinville.His hurdle rides for Nicky Henderson.especially at tracks where Henderson excels.Consistantly 33% strike rate,been backing blind since start of jumps,but kicking myself about bobs worth today,just thought to old.will get a lot of Henderson winners throughout season especially with barry geraghty tied to jp

    gerry 07/11/15 7:05 PM Reply


Post A Reply