Members Report: 06/11/15 (COMPLETED)

I don’t often get angry with myself if I have done my best, left no stone unturned and haven’t made basic errors – but I had a shocker today – having started the write up on the Evans horse with ‘back them blind’ in relation to his handicap chasers at Market Raisen – I proceeded to miss another handicap chaser he had at the track- that won, 8/1 – was 12s+ I think in the morning. I missed him, simple as that – he didnt even make my notepad. I am not sure what went through my mind when looking at that race. So, apologies. He should have been on the post somewhere given I put the other one up. Of course after he sluiced in I went looking for reasons why I woldnt have backed him, but there were none, given the stats and price. I didnt even make a conscious decision not to back him, I simply missed him. Annoying.  Its little things like that which I need to iron out. The other Tip ran well and just couldnt get up, going down by a head. The Irish shortlist horse ran ok for most of the race, but then faded and made a howler at the last flight. 

I won’t provide a running commentary on the micro systems – as always I will review at the end of the month, although I will comment if a trainer looks in hopeless form and should be treated with caution etc

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TIPS 

2.20 Hexham – Kalastar – 1 point win 9/2 (general) 

3.30 Muss – Mwaleshi – 1 point win 9/2 (general) 

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Kalastar – this is a fairly new trainer on the scene, who has been training Hunter Chasers predominantly, but her overall stats are looking ok. She had one run well enough yesterday at Muss as well. Also, from a limited sample, she can appear to get them ready to go after a break. This is another poor race and a reproduction of his recent form may well be enough for Solway Legend but his price is a bit skinny. Kalastar has some ok form to his name in Hunter Chases and really could be anything. We know he handles the track and he could have plenty in hand. The jockey booking is curious however he has some decent stats in chases, and hunter chases – safe to say he does know how to ride and will keep getting better with experience. He has won at the track a few times too. Given most of these have so far ‘been there and havent done it’ and have plenty to prove, this 6yo looked a bit too big at 9/2. Novice Handicap chases are not races to dive into too often I don’t think but I am happy to today. I think we will get a run for our money.

I should mention Afterclass as he caught my eye at a big price, and has been backed. Unlike a lot in here he has yet to prove that he is moderate at best, and could have more to offer on handicap debut. But, I checked the trainer stats and he is 0/28, 7 places in last 5 years with handicap debutants which was a concern. He can get them fit mind and it will be interesting how is goes. 

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Mwaleshi – yes I can hear you – Josh, its another 10yo! And I keep saying I should leave these older horses – however, he is a bit different from those recent failures with the older horses I have put up in last couple of weeks – namely he is an unexposed 10yo – and he is in form. He went in my notebook (forgot to mention him in weekly update post on Monday) when I watched him at Aintree. He led for most of the way, jumping superbly (and markedly out to his right), before a lack of fitness and/or the trip found him out. This is only his 7th handicap chase start and while he has yet to win one he has been running at decent tracks, at a higher class, and on his last two runs, over too far. This is also his first handicap chase going RH, and given he jumps that way, this should be up his street. He has a touch of class (top weight for a reason) and this is his ‘easiest’ chase assignment for some time. Oh, and Sue Smith is also 2/6, 3 places with her handicap chasers here. He does like to lead and I will touch on pace in a moment…

Village Vic is an obvious danger but he is 6/4, has been best fresh in the past, and can have a tendency to jump left. He will no doubts be thereabouts, but you dont get rich in this game by being scared to take on 6/4 shots! Clearly he ticks a lot of boxes and if he comes on for that run further, he could be hard to beat. Kodicili is going the other way – stepping up in class – and while open to improvement does have to go and do it. Quit De Tresor is interesting – he is an exposed older horse – this his 50th chase start – but he does like the track and CD (2/6, 4 places) I would like to think one with younger, more unexposed legs, will beat him here, and he has been a bit poor recently. But, his price is ok, the stable is on fire, and he could be a danger. Royal Macnab is likely to need the run, but is a chaser who could progress on the norther circuit this year – he did me a favour a couple of times last seaso…

Pace – now, that horse is a likely front runner, but I am hoping, as he may need the run, and he may not be here to win, that they dont get in a dual upfront with him, and/or he is rusty, and/or he cant live with the pace that Mwaleshi will set. Village Vic can lead, but won last time tracking the pace early, and Johnston wont want to ruin his chance. Hopefully the selection can get to the front – if he does his jumping (if he jumps like LTO) will put a lot of these under pressure turning for home.

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A quick work on ‘Veteran’s Chases’ – Mwaleshi ran in one of those LTO and they are interesting. There is a new program for them (came in last season?) and there are more of them I think. Generally these are decent horses who know how to jump, and often the races can be truly run with plenty of runners. As such, it could be that this form is more reliable in some cases than a ‘normal’ handicap chase – in any case, it will be interesting how horses that ran well in a Veteran’s chase get on when coming back into a normal handicap chase – of course they will always be threatened by younger legs. 

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THE SHORTLIST 

2.40 Font – Flute Bowl 10/1 (general) Gary Moore (get well soon) and Josh Moore are 6/30 here in handicap hurdles, and he has better record than his brother when on his fathers handicap hurdlers here. With these stats (taken from my stats guide – you should buy it if you havent already,just read the comments below 🙂 ) I need to start asking myself the question – ‘can i fully discount the horse’ – that way I may start putting up some of the bigger priced winners of recent weeks, esp when the price is good. I can’t discount this horse here – he was going well at the track on his seasonal reappearance last year before slipping on the bend turning in, he then ran at some very good tracks, in much better races. Moore can get them fit if he wants (solid stats after a break) and the break may have done this one some good. There are plenty of other unexposed ones in here – namely the Williams horse – she is 5/20 with handicap hurdlers here – this one need to prove he stays, but that is possible. But, at 11/4, I would rather go with the 10/1 shot – maybe worth a saver, up to you. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jumps Handicappers 

2.50 Hexham – Mia Matriarch – (12/1 or under)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • What a coincidence! I was just about to post about that Evans guy. I did end up backing that horse in the end (Sands Cove, I assume we’re talking about?) but only to a tiny stake.

    I caught that race in a betting shop and a minute before the off, that H J Evans stat attack came up: at MarketR since 2011-12, 56% strike rate on Hcp chasers, +16pts.

    So still at 8/1, and the form reading well too, I simply had to put a couple of quid on it. Low and behold, it ended up saving a bad day turning terrible.

    But don’t kick yourself – I only noticed this seconds before the off!

    Ali 05/11/15 8:22 PM Reply


    • Ah well I am glad you had some on! I go through every card, every day with my stats pack at my side, and I just missed him – i will kick myself as that is 12 points or so that got away – but, there we go. A basic error but is done now, moving onto tomorrow!

      Josh Wright 05/11/15 8:34 PM Reply


      • yeah, minor setback in context. My betting balances are already looking a lot healthier already and that’s despite a stinking run at the end of October and only joining a few weeks ago

        Ali 05/11/15 8:54 PM Reply


  • Backed both master neo and sands cove so nice resut,my own fav stat is james fanshawe 4yr+ at Kempton aw,can back them blind,nice winner yesterday 10/1 missed call.

    gerry 05/11/15 9:14 PM Reply


    • Well done, good stuff. Yes wish I had backed both! 🙂 I will have a look at that angle, have done well when he teams up with Freddy T, and with his handicappers that ran on the turd LTO..will add his 4yo+ horses to the list!

      Josh Wright 05/11/15 9:29 PM Reply


  • Running on the turd obviously makes them go a bit faster! Loving the jump stats Josh. Finding big priced winners simply by backing most qualifiers blind.Well in profit since purchase a couple of weeks ago.

    Andy 05/11/15 11:02 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Andy, always pleased to hear those using it making decent profits. keep up the good work!

      Josh Wright 06/11/15 9:24 AM Reply


  • Sands Cove didnt make my cut but i found three winners at 9/1 into 7’s. 16/1 into 8’s and 6/1 into 9/2. The guide is producing the goods.It threw up quite a few selections yesterday and after form study and early price movement i managed to find three of the four winners and left out a few losers. Getting early prices,in most cases the night before makes a big difference to profit and loss.
    You mention commenting on a stable in hopeless form. D.Pipe has had 25 losers losers since his last winner which was on the 21st of October. Some of his horses are running very poorly(Great Choice a typical one yesterday).November is usually his month but until he gets a winner i would leave well alone. Keep up the good work Josh.

    Roddo 06/11/15 8:24 AM Reply


    • Hi Roddo- do you mind telling me which winners they were/track? (no need to repeat the stats) assuming the latter was Milord? had a good look at him and left another one! Out of Bailey’s three he was the obvious one, hindsight eh! Glad you are using guide to good effect.

      Yes Pipe is a slight worry – he had a 16/1 shot nearly go in at Carlisle, that drifted from 14s to make me think all was ok, but yes those stats are a concern – esp as he usually farms certain races at next week’s Paddy Power meeting, so one to keep an eye on. Great Choice just ran poorly from the start- got out of bed the wrong side, or hated the ground I am not sure but was never travelling

      Josh Wright 06/11/15 9:28 AM Reply


  • ..main tips have been disappointing for some time now …surely these are the bets that people should have the main faith in …. seems every week there is a hard luck story . could have should have. ..saying profits should have been higher if doing this or that is all well and good but.after a while it becomes slightly annoying..

    harold 06/11/15 9:52 AM Reply


    • Oh Harold, amongst all the positivity, the good will, and success of punters like those above – It appears that I can always count on you for some doom and gloom to cheer up my weekend.

      Everything is there in black and white. Crystal clear. The Annual review, and review of October, is at the following link if you wish to read it. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/october-review/

      Below that post in the comments is also a link to the full results.

      Now, I have spoken to you before about performance up to the end of September, so I wont repeat myself. However, the TIPS (if they are the only ones you wish to follow – NOT the shortlist, or the systems) are 3/11 + 10 points, since the start of October. One of those was 20/1 yes, and actually if I had staked 1 point to win would be +7.5 points more. There was also a head second yesterday at 11/2, and one that was brought down when tanking (albeit a fare way out)

      The Big Race Previews are what they are – generally rather big odds, but over times they have done well – they are -6 or so since start of October, and yes, some of those were a bit naff. But, as the annual review shows, over time I have done quite well in those big race previews.

      Any dont say ‘ ah but a lot of those are down to big priced winners’ Well yes, yes they are. That is the point. If you miss one that will affect results, but, that really isnt my problem.

      I know you like the micro systems – and as such you should be way in front since the start of August if following them systematically, more than making up for my more recent tipping mediocrity.

      This is a long term game, and snap shots here and there are pointless. What you do with the info I provide is up to you Harold.

      Finally – yes there are ifs. buts, what could have been – that is because I am honest with my approach and think out loud when I believe I could be doing better. I know in the context of losing money, this can be annoying,but thankfully since the start of November the members reports are around +20 points up. (excluding systems) I am very self critical of my performance, in order that I do not get complacent and so that I can improve – because I can always do better. If you dont like that honesty then that is up to you. If I am saying the same things in 6 months time then I am clearly not a very good learner!!

      You do make me smile Harold, and please do keep commenting away. Your doom and gloom helps keep me on my toes.

      have a great weekend, I will. My glass is always half full – i suspect yours is always half empty.

      Josh Wright 06/11/15 10:17 AM Reply


  • Not as annoying as you Harold.
    The winners i backed yesterday were Milord.@6/1 Montys Revenge @16/1 and Triple Eight@ 9/1 .

    Roddo 06/11/15 10:14 AM Reply


    • Cheers – oh bugger – yes good Old Monty – I will add that Keighley stat to another that passed me by! And that Kirby one. Bloody hell. not a good day yesterday, glad you had both.

      Josh Wright 06/11/15 10:36 AM Reply


  • Ha ha well said lad I reckon it’s a case that maybe someone backed the qualifiers that didn’t win
    And if like me you are just one of the lucky people that have benefitted from the hours and effort josh puts in to provide stats and pointers for nothing I strongly suggest you try one of the paid services that promise you thousands in months and listen to some of there excuses mate !!!
    Personally I have never benefitted more from a FREE download and FREE blog

    Aaron 06/11/15 10:31 AM Reply


  • Great and perfect response to Harold Josh and keep up the good work.I do all my own bets and have many systems on fixed odds and the spreads on only National Hunt racing but my Mrs wanted her own account and bets separate to mine and just for own amusement and hopefully extra money so on October 1st I opened an account for her.Since that day she has followed yourself and Juicy Plums and Matts Stat Of The Day over at Geegeez,as regards your selections she has backed every tip,shortlist and micro systems (at specified prices) all £25ew no matter what the price (she likes some return even if it’s a 2/1 place) and she has a profit of £787.75 all on BOG

    Tony 06/11/15 10:39 AM Reply


  • …my results of main tips ..are from 21st August …2 winners /1 placed e.w.8/1..31 losers ..minus 15.5 points ..since 29th of July …minus 8 .75 points..14 weeks no profit ..these are the main tips the ones stated with actual points …

    harold 06/11/15 4:15 PM Reply


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