Firstly, in the comments below you can find two links. 1 – to an annual review post/review of October (which you can also find by going to ‘blog’ tab at top and scrolling down) 2- an update of all results since start of October for the Members reports (excluding systems)
A small profit on the day (excluding systems) of +0.5 points and thankfully the ‘tip’ got us out of a hole. The Shortlist horses generally ran poorly. Beckett newbie was backed and then drifted out again and ran as such. Doormouse was held up out the back in what looked a moderate pace. The leaders did not come back and that was that. In fairness nothing was beating the winner, but anyone who backed him EW with 4 places could feel aggrieved given he stayed on late. But, it was a young lad riding who is still learning and if he rode that race again I think he would have been closer, sooner. Maybe he just wasnt good enough and aged 10 couldn’t lay up anyway. Tenby Jewel was well backed as well but got stuck in the mud I think. Trainer Track Profiles users may well have had the winner of that race as the trainer was 5/27, 12 places with handicap hurdlers at the track. His Solstice Star won really well and I don’t want to think about what price he was this morning – he was on the notepad – I didn’t go for him because a) he hadnt done much at all in handicaps to date b) the trainers hurdlers returning after a 61+ day break were 7/174 – I wasnt sure he would be fit. Damn. The 100 odd day break after some poor runs was interesting mind, and such types are worth a second glance. They must have done something with him during that time.
There are some ok, if moderate, handicap chases today and there are two I fancy that look a shade overpriced…
2.35 Muss – Purcell’s Bridge – 1 point win 11/2 (BF/PP/BF sports) (money back PP if finish 2nd)
3.20 Markt R – Goodoldhonkytonk – 1 point win 13/2 (BV/WH)
2.35 – PB runs for a trainer who is 3/13, 5 places with her handicap chasers here, this lad with one of those wins. This is only his 6th chase start over an adequate trip (around 24f) and his last win was when he demolished a field over CD. He is now 0/9, 1 place LH, so you could make excuses for some of those runs since – and also it looks like 26f, esp on a couple of much stiffer tracks than this one, have found him out. He has ran well and placed on his last two seasonal reappearances so hopefully fitness is fine – given the oppo i think 11/2 allows that chance. The fav is unexposed and could clearly go well but he has his stamina to conclusively prove. Swing Hard is interesting but since his last win hasnt done much – you could make the odd excuse and he will like this step down in trip on an easier track – he is a CD winner. But, and in form PB who runs to his rating is a better horse than Swing Hard. And, there isnt much generosity in their prices to my eye. The others have a few things to prove.
3.20- Well this is more about the trainer than the horse – Evans is 6/13, 8 places with his handicap chasers here. Back them blind. This is an awful race, really poor. So, poor it is hard to make an overly compelling case for much – except the fav, who is in form – but he has been kept to good/decent ground, usually over summer months, suggesting that soft is far from ideal. Now, he has yet to prove he cant handle soft (only raced on it once) but he does have that to prove, making his price skinny. The rest have plenty to prove, including the selection. But, she was once with De Bromhead and did win a maiden hurdle so has some ability at least. There are bits and pieces of chase form. She returned after 400+ days last time out so ignore that run. I will expect her to be fit here – if running her to sharpen her up he could have gone to another track – his stats suggest he sends chasers here to win. Again, given how poor this race is, 13/2 looks generous enough. If the fav flounders in the mud she really wont have to be that good to take this.
3.45 Thurles -D Hogan is 4/17, 7 places with his handicap hurdlers here (at the time I pulled the bonus guide together) and his Redwood Bay looks interesting. In another shocker of a race he has a good as chance as any. 9/1 with WH/SJ, 8/1 Bet365, 7/1 the rest. He ran well enough LTO, the trainer hasnt had him long, and he could well lead these from the front.
There were plenty of other pointers on my notepad but I cant back them all and having gone through everything,given the odds etc and race types I prefer, these three will do for today.
1.55 Towc – Eastern Witness (16/1 or under)
2.25 Towc – Great Choice (14/1 or under)
2.15 MR – Master Neo (12/1 or under)