Members Report: 04/11/15 (COMPLETED)

Well days won’t get much better than that really and we should savour it as they don’t come along everyday! A nice 12/1 winner for the shortlist (10.75/1 after R4) and a 12/1 winner for Venetia Williams made it a decent day all round. There was also a 33/1 3rd who came hard and late – very close, but hopefully a few of you may have backed him EW. Ziga Boy was pulled up in the end, unable to cope with race conditions near the end. He jumped sweetly and travelled ominously well before weakening. He did come on for the run last season and I will be keeping an eye on him. He will be winning chases in the next couple of seasons – by pulling him up they have saved him for another day. Thankfully we backed the winner in any case, and at bigger odds. 

I am happy enough with my ‘tipping’ form in these handicap chases. I feel in form, am analysing them ok and the shortlists/danger horses have been fine, despite not ‘tipping’ many winners. The winners will come. Safe to say I had a ‘confidence wobble’ last week, and if Wakander and Vintage Star were running later this week they would have been tipped and that would have been +15 more points to the pot. Stick to your guns as they say! 

Having lost 0.75 points on October, the Tips/Shortlist/Big Race Previews are now on +22 points. A decent start to the month and one I hope to continue. Our first ‘official’ Venetia Williams chase winner helps the profit levels as well! 

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TIP

3.50 Chepstow – Leith Hill Legasi – 7/2 – 1 point win

Ahhh I have deliberated on this for a time – mainly the price – 4/5s would have been nice but with the non runner her chance is improved and maybe this is just about ok. My instinct says to go for it, so that is what I shall do! 

The selection should be fit given connections (well, again, he can get them fit first time up if he wants to), and has winning chasing form which is more than can be said for most in here. Trainer is in form, got the best jockey on board in the race (not that this is ever a deciding factor,but it helps) and this is only her 7th chase start. She won’t be too far away. She is open to improvement and while clearly a patchy profile a repeat of that Lingfield run would see her right there near the end. Nothing in here has overly strong form. 

The two next to her in the market do look the main dangers and I expect the winner to come from the top 3. Newton Thistle has to prove he can carry a big weight – only ever having carried 11-2 before – also going LH to prove and he will have to improve again, although is lightly raced. Johns Luck is also unexposed in this sphere but without a win to his name yet from 2 goes. He ran well enough LTO although this is a different track and he needs to step up again, and also prove his stamina over fences, having looked to fade late last time on not the stiffest track in the world. The trainer has also gone a tad cold in last 14 days, 1/28 (was 12/30 in the 14 days before that). 

There are a few older horses in here I am happy to leave and the rest are in the unexposed category, which is a danger, but on what they have done to date, and their recent form, I am happy to leave. I suppose no real shock if the likes of Kinari run decent races given how few runs they have had, but they have questions to answer, far more than the selection. 

 

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THE SHORTLIST 

1.50  12.50 Notts – Pillar 5/1 (general) A no brainer I think, as 2yo maidens go. Beckett is 2/8, 5 places with his 2yo debutants at the track and he won two divisions of this race in 2011. He is in the form of his life, 7/28, 14 places in last 14 days (opposed to Mark Johnston’s 2/37 for example) and this horse has some decent blood. His mother won at Listed level and won on her debut. We will have to trust the trainer with the ground etc. He will be ready to go here and 5s is a bit generous all things considered. 

1.00 Warwick – Doormouse – 14/1 (general) – The first out and out ‘profile’ type horse. He has always been on my radar simply because he loves this track. 3/8, 5 places over CD in handicap hurdles. He is 4/11, 9 places in the month of November, goes on all types of ground (hopefully gets more testing and could find out the rest) and last November was winning off 117. With this decent young jockey’s claim he gets in off 105 here. He ran well enough here on his seasonal reappearance 2 starts ago when needing it I imagine. I am happy to draw a line through that last run. Yes, he is a 10yo, but all the signs are there that ability remains, and he is 14s. Also, this is a poor race and he looks the best of the exposed horses. The unexposed ones don’t look up to much and the with a 7/1 fav it tells you this is open. I think we will get a good run for our money here. 

1.10 Chepstow – Tenby Jewl – 8/1 (BF/SJ/BF sports) Another 10yo and I know I keep saying I should stay away from horses this old, if you are going to back them it is probably in rubbish quality handicap hurdles. The trainer is 4/16, 8 places with his handicap hurdlers at the track (that is the ‘way in’), this horses with 4 of those runs and 1 of the places. Last year over CD he came an 8L second off OR93 (with claim) – He gets in off OR75 here. A slight niggle as to the ground but that is built into the price. Again, this is a shocker of a race and on paper he has a good chance. He looked to be coming back to some kind of form last time and his geegeez speed rating is far far superior to this lot which is interesting. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers  (all Cox, all 14/1 or below – price always a guide,more so for some trainers than others)

6.10 Kemp – Beauty Night 

7.10 Kemp – Callendula 

8.10 Kemp – Ladys De Rock

Emma Lavelle (14/1 or under)

4.10 Warw – Lady Markby 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Yes, I’ve made Leith Hill Legasi my nap today and thought Pillar (pedigree OK for soft) was good at 5/1 after 2 NRs.
    Then we differ. 100W Stand to Reason is better than these (if ready) and 110C Blue Top made a promising return last month and 16.00BF was too big – the money has come too.
    145 Petethepear has shown promise and the yard has been doing well – 25/1 seemed OK. My other speculation is Where’s Cherry 410W who might benefit from less of a slog at 20/1 EW.
    Finally, 440K Singoalla seemed worth a bet @ 6.6 switched to a slower surface and an extended trip.

    Chris 04/11/15 10:23 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Chris, I always welcome reasoned disagreement! Take your point about Stand To Reason although he was half price of selection and still think he has plenty to prove. Am always sceptical ‘Summer Jumping’ form and that race he won LTO hasnt worked out well – 16 runs since from others, 0 wins 3 places. Also trainer 0/46 last 30 days, and with break and at odds I would struggle to back him- but that is what is great about this game, and if Doormouse doesnt do business I hope he sluices up for you. Blue Top – good point but he is now 0/10, 1 place over hurdles and does have it to do, albeit it is a poor race and he still has time on his side, market suggests he will go well enough. Good luck with others, you seem to have a habit of picking out the biggies so will be watching them closely.

      Josh Wright 04/11/15 10:35 AM Reply


  • November Trianers.

    Nice winner yesterday.

    Where can I find Emma Lavelle’s Stats please.

    Derek C.

    Derek 04/11/15 2:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Derek…you can find that post here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/october-trainersmicro-angles/

      That was put up at the start of October and includes the Fahey angle as well. I see that Lavelle has just had a winner – you will see from the stats that picking which ones to back age 6+ is a bit more tricky at this time of year – but clearly she is in form so most of hers are worth a second glance for the next month.

      Josh Wright 04/11/15 2:38 PM Reply


  • Beauty Night been well backed,was 25/1 this morning and 10/1 at the off!

    Tony 04/11/15 6:11 PM Reply


  • Ran on well but no chance with the winner

    Tony 04/11/15 6:13 PM Reply


    • Must admit I had a cheeky EW dabble on him at a big price given current form- thankfully jock rode him to the line. Ladys De Roc appears to be the best chance, hopefully end the day well.

      Josh Wright 04/11/15 6:47 PM Reply


  • Main Bet won Josh well spotted and thanks

    philip 04/11/15 7:10 PM Reply


    • Cheers Phillip – yes he did that well and it went to plan, got me out of a bit of a hole! Great ride by STD.

      Josh Wright 04/11/15 7:18 PM Reply


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