Members Report: 22/10/15 (UPDATED)

Well we were due a poor day. Thanks to a 3/1 winner for Fanshawe late on at Kempton it wasn’t as bad as it could have been – ending up between -2 and -3 point loss I think. 

Micro Angles – as I have said before it is up to you how you utilise them. I have been backing them all blind to date and they have been researched with that intention. With the ‘Jumps Handicappers’ they are more of a ‘way in’ I suppose although all of the trainer angles have a 25%+ SR, and they are expected to come out in front when backed systematically as well. 

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TIPS

3.55 Carlisle – King Fontaine 8/1 – 1 point win 

4.15 Ludlow – Victor Leudorum 10/1 (WH/PP) – 1 point win

 

3.55 – I could well be losing my marbles going for a 12yo here – and in general backing anything over 9 in Chases is fraught with danger – and you will always be open to more progressive rivals. However, I think the top 2 in the market are worth taking on. Orange N – well he is 0/7, 2 places OR121+, and 0/7, 2 places C3 – to date he has always found one too good or too progressive – he has been top weight a few times in C3 and failed. He does go well enough fresh so fitness will be fine. Coutown Oscar – well he is unexposed and if fit could well demolish this field – but, he steps up in class, has fitness to overcome and has to prove he likes a lively surface, having won on Heavy last time out. All those things could be fine but 7/4 is short enough. The rest have a few too many questions to answer for me. 

King Fontaine – well he is in form and hasnt had many runs for this trainer. On old form he is still well handicapped. I think he will like this track a bit more than Exeter – which is stiff in parts but is also downhill in places and not the stiffest of finishes – not as stiff as here. He steps back up in trip and I think he will be thereabouts. I thought 8s was worth chancing given he still looks to be in form. Hopefully he is staying on up the hill when the others have had enough. 

4.15 – Well another punt but at decent enough odds. This horse is only having his 8th chase start – and in 2013 he dotted up in a C3 novice chase at Ascot. He lost his way a bit since but having run off 128 on his last chase start now runs off 116 here. Fehily is back up and he gets cheekpieces for the first time. There is also a lack of pace on paper in here and I hope that he is sent to the front and tries to make all – as he usually races prominently. If he were to find any of his old ability – and he was racing in plenty of C3 chases having gone up to the 130s after that novice win – he would win this. Enough there to take a chance at 10/1. 

Butlergrove King is another young and progressive chaser who could just blow these away. But, he steps up by 1/2 a mile here – it could suit – it could not – and as such isn’t totally bombproof. I wouldn’t want to take 2s on that basis, albeit he could make that look a decent price come 4.20. Jayandbee isnt without a chance but tends to need further and is a bit in and out. He could get outpaced here. The others have a few questions to answer as well, albeit BuckMulligan has the ability to win this – but is only 4/40 odd over fences- hard to predict. 

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So, a couple of lively ones hopefully, that should give us a run for our money at decent odds. They could both win – their profiles suggest they could also get behind and be well beaten – but at the odds I am happy to take a chance. 

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The Shortlist

No shortlist today. The stats guide throws up a few horses of interest but I cannot make a strong enough case for the horses in the context of their races – my judgement could well be wrong (it has been a few times, so dont be put off if you have picked out a few) and if any of them win I will reflect on them tomorrow. There is nothing from my other stats sources which caught the eye – and in truth with those two races above I ran out of time to look at any more in the depth required. 

The shortlist has to be profitable long term if backing them – and I will only put up horses I am confident/happy to have a bet on and that would go down in results. 

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Micro Systems

Jumps Handicappers 

2.00 South – Golan Dancer (14/1 or under)

4.25 South – Carlisle -Turtle Cask (12/1 or under)

5.15 Lud – Grimley Girl (12/1 or under)

NTD (16/1 or under)

2.10 Lud – Light Breaks 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Thanks for the early post, appreciated. Poor day today, but hey that’s racing for you. Onwards and upwards !

    Bob 21/10/15 9:58 PM Reply


    • Yep not great but I think only a -2 to -3 point loss on day in end following 3/1 winner for Fanshawe at Kempton, with another AW Switcher.

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 7:14 AM Reply


  • hi, thanks for your interesting work

    Just wondering why there are no carlisle selections in here. I found a few selections based on your report (profitable trainers in Hcp hurdles, jockey-trainer combos etc.). You know, the report including Carlisle, Chepstow and Kelso?

    Ali 22/10/15 3:36 AM Reply


    • Hi Ali,
      Cheers.

      Yep – I use that report everyday and my notepad is full of potentials that I am about to look at. These members reports – firstly the system selections above are for the micro angles I have researched and that are saved in my HRB acc. I post these up the evening before. Then on the day of racing I update the report by 10am (08.15 as I write this) with any ‘tips’ or a shortlist – this is where you may find any selections based on the stats from the report or other sources. There is no promise/expectation that I will list any relevant stats from that report. I will use them to look at the horse and if I think worthy of backing I will post them up. Sometimes I get this wrong and may miss a winner etc, I don’t post selections from the report as if they are a system – just listing the horses etc – I try and highlight what I think are the best ones. But, the idea of that report is to help find your own winners/horses of interest and use your own judgement – which it sounds like you are doing.

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 7:20 AM Reply


      • ok, lovely, thanks

        Ali 22/10/15 8:42 AM Reply


  • Maybe not the greatest day yesterday Josh but in the 8 days I’ve been following your selections they have made a profit of £1092.11………great stuff and well done

    Tony 22/10/15 9:04 AM Reply


    • Yea, it wasn’t too bad in truth and we can’t come out in front everyday! Good profits there, hopefully they keep on growing over time!

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 9:21 AM Reply


  • If we had all the winners every day there would be no bookies to bet with as long as we can turn a profit quietly and unnoticed then I am a very happy bunny Josh

    brian 22/10/15 9:14 AM Reply


    • Well exactly – and it is a long term game. I won’ reflect on results everyday and there will be many more losing days than winning days – but the winning days should help leave a decent enough profit over time, given the odds etc. And it is all about remembering the highs, for when the losing runs come, before retuning to winning ways. Hopefully with the portfolio approach helps negate long losing runs but we shall see!

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 9:20 AM Reply


  • I have just recorded all the selections on here including those with price stipulations etc since the blog was rebranded to Members Report. Considerring the first 11 bets were losers, and also 7 no bets due to prices, I find it remarkable that to BFSP (Including maximum 5% deductions) this has made a little over 51pts since 09/10/15. I always adjust the BFSP to ensure accuarcy and I think this is very commendable and I am enjoying this very much. The portfolio approach on here is exceptional, and I am certainly not one for moaning when the inevitable losing run comes along. Brilliant stuff and thank you. (My records might be slightly out but not by much)

    Mark 22/10/15 10:44 AM Reply


    • Cheers Mark – that does make for pleasant reading! I think that sounds about right – I have it around +32 points or so to advised BOG prices since start of month – and given the price of some of the winners (a few 10/1-20/1 SPs) the bigger return at BFSP is no surprise. Working out which price to take is always challenging and my first port of call is always a BOG bookie, but given some of the prices, BFSP clearly a viable option – risk of price collapsing of course. I am not recording the tips/shortlist to BFSP (HRB will do for all micro angles) although going back and looking at winners wouldnt be too hard – I will always try to advise a BOG price that is available with at least 2 major bookies.

      But, yes, safe to say we have been on a good little run – and plenty of profit there to absorb the mini losing runs which will be inevitable – but hopefully not to severe with a portfolio approach.

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 11:04 AM Reply


  • I had Harlequin Rock on the 19th with a BSP of 17.09 (15.29 adj) which is included in the posting above. I saw no price limit of <16/1 mentioned for this horse, although I think it should have been, so, really, I should not have included that one perhaps but there you go. This is really good and freely available, and added to my own stuff that I do it is a great addition.

    Mark 22/10/15 11:42 AM Reply


    • All price restrictions for the systems are to Industry Odds (that is basis they are researched on)- not Betfair SP – Harlequin Rock was ISP 12/1 (after hefty R4 – was available at 16s earlier in day) so he was a qualifier, and should be included in your results – he is in mine! He was for Channon – 16/1 or under.

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 12:22 PM Reply


  • I’ve backed golan dancer on sky bet as they are offering double odds on the 2:00 southwell race 😀 would be nice lol

    james.b 22/10/15 12:40 PM Reply


    • Well he drifted late but a few will do that over time and go in..he looked to be travelling strongly there before taking a fence with him – although whether he would have ‘blown up’ in last few furlongs who knows! It was getting exciting though.

      Josh Wright 22/10/15 1:14 PM Reply


  • I backed the NH Flat winner, Western Cape, at 14s or so, having read your National Hunt trends. So for that I must thank you!

    Where did you post about Fanshawe? I missed that one

    Ali 23/10/15 2:59 AM Reply


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