Cheltenham Showcase Meeting: Pointers

Some Pointers for the upcoming Cheltenham Showcase Meeting…

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TRAINERS 

(all stats from 2010- as usual)

Clearly we are dealing with small numbers here but they are useful pointers. At first glance it doesn’t look like a meeting where you should go chasing big priced winners, especially from the yards below. Price is of course always a guide but some of the stats below are very eye catching..

Firstly all trainers with 2 or more winners to their name at this meeting in the last 5 years…

Paul Nicholls 

  • 0/15, 2 places priced 13/2 or bigger 
  • 11/2 or under: 35 bets / 13 wins / 24 places / +7 SP 
  • 11/2 or under /Non Handicaps: 25 bets / 12 wins / 21 places / 48% SR / +11.54 SP / AE 1.35
  • 11/2 or under / Handicaps: 9 bets / 1 win / 3 places 
  • 9/19, 16 places had NO run this season 

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Nigel Twiston-Davies

  • 0/13, 3 places 11/1 or over 
  • 10/1 or under: 33 bets / 9 wins / 15 places / 27% SR / +21.5 SP / AE 1.44
    • 5/13, 6 places in Hurdles; +19.25
    • 4/19, 8 places in Chases; +3.25 
    • Non Handicaps: 3/17, 7 places; -5.75 SP, AE 0.74
    • Handicaps: 6/16, 8 places; +27.25 SP 
  • Handicap Hurdle: 3/6, 3 places, +17.25 
  • Handicap Chase: 3/10, 5 places, +10 SP 
  • Non Handicap Hurdle: 2/7, 3 places , +2 
  • Non Handicap Chase: 1/9, 3 places, -6.75 

Exclude non handicap chases (although those stats still ok), 10/1 or under: 23 bets / 8 wins / 11 places / +29.25 SP 

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Gordon Elliot 

  • 0/14, 4 places, 9/1 or over 
  • 17/2 or shorter: 15 bets / 7 wins / 9 places / +31.26 SP 
  • 1/4, 3 places in last 2 seasons. 

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Jonjo O’Neill

  • 0/16, 1 place, 8/1 or over 
  • 7/1 or under: 10 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / +13.35 SP 
  • 4/7, 5 places in last two seasons, +16.25 SP
  • 3/5, 4 places in Chases
  • 1/4, 2 places in Hurdles. 

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Phillip Hobbs 

  • 0/18, 4 places, 10/1 +
  • 9/1 or under: 4/20, 10 places, +7.25 SP 
  • Non Handicap: 0/6, 2 places 
  • Handicaps: 4/14, 8 places, +13.25 
    • Handicap Hurdle: 0/6, 2 places 
    • Handicap Chase (9/1 <): 4/8, 6 places +19.25 SP (1 win every year since 2011) 

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Neil Mulholland

  • 3/5, 3 places in his short career to date. Looks like a meeting he may have decided to target. 
  • 3/4, 3 places in Chases. 

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David Pipe 

  • 0/14, 2 places, 8/1 or bigger
  • 7/1 or shorter: 11 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / +6.75 SP 
  • Non Handicap: 3/5, 4 places, +12.75 SP 
  • Handicaps: 0/6, 2 places

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Nicky Henderson

  • 0/7, 0 places 11/1 or bigger 
  • 10/1 or shorter: 3/14, 8 places: +13 SP (across all race types)

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Rebecca Curtis 

  • 2/18 in general. No real way in but…
  • 1/5, 3 places in NHF races

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Colin Tizzard

  • 0/18, 1 place above 5/1 
  • 5/1 or shorter: 2/3, 3 places – both wins in chases. Clearly his fancied runners are worth a second glance. 

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Some trainers that ‘could do better’ …

  • Kim Bailey: 0/11, 2 places 
  • Gary Moore: 0/9, 1 place 
  • Charlie Longsdon: 0/11, 2 places
  • Emma Lavelle: 0/15, 2 places 
  • Venetia Williams: 0/8, 0 places 
  • Fergal O’Brien: 0/19, 2 places 
  • Tim Vaughan: 0/20, 2 places (yet to have any winner at Cheltenham, that must change at some point!)
  • D McCain: 0/9, 2 places 

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Trends/Stats 

Friday: 3.20 – 3m Handicap Hurdle  (94 runners to date, only 6 years)

  • 4/6 Won last time out. 
  • 6/6 Top 3 LTO
    • 6/45, 15 places Top 3 LTO
    • 0/49, 6 places 4th or worse LTO
  • 5/6 carried less than 11st
    • 5/62, 15 places less than 11st
    • 1/32, 6 places 11st +
  • 4/38, 7 places ran 121-365 days ago
  • 0/12, 0 places 1-2 career wins only 

Trainers 

  • Nigel Twiston-Davies: 6 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / +14 SP
  • Hughes / Greatrex / Hobbs / H Evans  – 1 win each
  • Pipe: 0/12 , 2 places 
  • Jonjo: 0/5, 0 places 

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Saturday: 3.20 25f Handicap Chase 

(8 runnings, 96 runners – 3 won by same horse so some caution) 

  • 0/41, 3 places: 14/1 or bigger 
  • 0/13, 3 places Aged 4-6
  • 0/17, 6 places carried 11-8 or more 
  • 8/8 Top 5 in market (8/42, 17 places)
  • 7/8 ran 121-365 days ago
  • 0/18, 2 places had 0-1 chase wins to name: 4/19, 7 places had 3 chase wins to name
  • 0/14, 1 place had 4+ NH handicap wins to name
  • 7/8 Rated OR 134-140 (7/28, 9 places)
  • Track LTO:-
    • 3/8, 5 places ran at Sandown LTO
    • 2/14, 6 places Cheltenham
    • 0/9, 2 places Aintree
    • 0/12, 2 places Market Raisen

Trainers

  • Phillip Hobbs: 5/11, 6 places, +25.25 SP (3x with Balthazar King)
  • Mulholland/Jonjo/NTD – 1 win each 
  • Pipe: 0/6, 2 places 
  • Nicholls: 0/6, 0 places 

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