October Trainers/Micro Angles

I will write a review piece on both the August and September trainers (most likely next week) but for now there are a few of interest for the next month. Firstly there are some trainers whose record in October under the rules below is superior (% SR, Prfofit, AE) to all other months. Then there is an interesting angle for Fahey 2yo nursery runners that I wish I had found before this season, and finally how to profit from Emma Lavelle in the next two months….

October Trainers

(handicaps/October)

Andrew Balding 

  • Flat Turf Handicaps
  • 16/1 or under
  • NOT Newmarket (Rowley); Salisbury; York
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 73 21 28.77 62.46 37 50.68 82.99 113.68 31.06 1.78
2014 27 9 33.33 31.08 16 59.26 37.92 140.43 13.95 1.8
2013 13 2 15.38 7.25 4 30.77 18.17 139.73 0.93 0.93
2012 14 5 35.71 16.25 8 57.14 17.34 123.88 5.46 2.37
2011 8 2 25 6.5 5 62.5 7.3 91.25 10.39 2.44
2010 11 3 27.27 1.38 4 36.36 2.26 20.55 0.34 1.75

His stats all other times of year with these rules: 1051 bets / 167 wins / 390 places /15.89 % SR / -35.87 / AE 0.94

He is 1/17, 5 places at Newmarket, 0/9, 1 place Salisbury and 0/9, 0 places at York. Clearly those stats are not decisive but so far his runners in this month haven’t performed well at these venues. Maybe this year will be different and it is something to keep an eye on.

He is only 0/4, 0 places above 16/1 and I suppose as transpired with George Baker should only be a guide, esp if he does hit form.

The stats with more fancied horses, 9/1 or under, are 19/56, 31 places; +45 SP. His generally get backed as well, by taking opening odds (when first show, 10 mins or so before off) would be worth +20 more above ISP, not to mention what some of the early morning prices may have been.

***

Mick Channon 

  • Flat Turf Handicaps
  • 2yo Only + 3yo Only races (NOT all age handicaps etc)
  • Class 3,4,5 Only
  • 16/1 or under
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 47 11 23.4 61.5 21 44.68 77.54 164.99 14.12 1.67
2014 12 2 16.67 9 5 41.67 11.16 92.97 1.98 1.32
2013 11 1 9.09 -6.5 3 27.27 -6.68 -60.68 -2.09 0.64
2012 8 4 50 26.5 5 62.5 34.17 427.14 6.63 2.99
2011 6 1 16.67 3.5 2 33.33 4.5 75 -0.31 1.33
2010 10 3 30 29 6 60 34.39 343.92 7.91 2.1

Stats in all other months combined, with same rules: 641 bets / 75 wins / 225 places / 11.7% SR / -128.2 SP / AE 0.83

0/11, 0 places abover 16/1 to date.

Ignoring class and age restrictions: 19/136, 52 places / 13% SR / +26.5 SP , AE 1.04

From this top set he is currently 0/15, 1 place in C2. Without age restrictions the rest of the classes are close in performance.

In C3-6 his performance in 3yo+ and 4yo+ races is: 6/57, 21 places; 10.5% SR ; -10.5 SP ; AE 0.78

With the age restrictions in place, his performance in C6 is 2/17, 9 places, -9.5 SP , AE 0.82. Now the places suggest this may just be luck but so far they are under-performing again market expectations.

He is 0/5, 1 place at Nottingham to date from that sample. He does well with 6-8f races. His record outside of these is 2/17, 5 places, -4.5 SP , AE 0.83

So at 6f-8f he is 30 bets / 9 wins / 16 places / +66 SP / 30% SR / AE 2.15. I will use this more as a guide. His two winners above 8f were over 17f (2/4).

***

Alan King 

  • National Hunt Handicaps/ All-Weather Handicaps
  • NOT at Aintree
  • 9/1 or under
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 49 18 36.73 48.06 30 61.22 58.27 118.92 13.85 1.75
2014 18 8 44.44 23.25 12 66.67 28.46 158.09 6.18 1.81
2013 12 6 50 14.98 7 58.33 15.27 127.25 0.7 2.23
2012 8 2 25 9 7 87.5 13.48 168.44 8.55 1.47
2011 7 1 14.29 -2.67 2 28.57 -2.77 -39.57 -2.24 0.85
2010 4 1 25 3.5 2 50 3.84 96 0.66 1.52

0/17, 5 places above 9/1 so far. Currently 0/9, 2 places at Aintree.

3/7, 5 places with his AW runners during this month. 1/13, 6 places in turf flat handicaps.

The last two years would suggest it may be more of a strategy to target horses at races during this month. Hopefylly it continues this year.

All other months combined: 790 bets / 115 wins / 289 places / 14.5% SR / -205 SP / AE 0.76

***

David Simcock 

  • Flat Turf Handicaps
  • 14/1 or under
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 40 10 25 38.5 16 40 42.06 105.14 3.44 1.69
2014 3 0 0 -3 0 0 -3 -100 -3 0
2013 10 4 40 21 5 50 23.27 232.7 3.63 3.28
2012 9 2 22.22 -1 3 33.33 -0.61 -6.74 -0.32 1.27
2011 5 2 40 16 3 60 17.45 349.07 2.99 4
2010 13 2 15.38 5.5 5 38.46 4.94 38.01 0.14 0.93

0/15, 2 places above 14/1 to date.

All other months combined: 674 bets / 105 wins / 256 places / 15.58% SR / -56 SP / AE 0.96

He has far fewer runners during this month as you would expect as the season winds down, but he seems to be pretty good at placing them from this more limited sample. 

***

That is it for the ‘October Trainers’. While researching them Fahey cropped up and when digging down I found an angle of interest in 2yo Nurseries…

Richard Fahey

  • 2yo Only Flat Handicaps
  • NOT Clear Bottom in the weights
  • HAS raced in a handicap before (NOT making handicap debut)
  • NOT 1st LTO
  • 16/1 or under
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 133 33 24.81 115.52 56 42.11 136.78 102.84 20.36 1.56
2015 16 7 43.75 41.63 7 43.75 50.41 315.08 3.33 2.47
2014 28 9 32.14 35.13 15 53.57 31.2 111.42 9.42 1.9
2013 26 5 19.23 9.63 12 46.15 16.21 62.35 9.06 1.32
2012 23 4 17.39 4.88 9 39.13 5.32 23.13 1.54 1.04
2011 13 2 15.38 -5.75 2 15.38 -5.57 -42.82 -7.47 0.99
2010 27 6 22.22 30 11 40.74 39.2 145.19 4.49 1.54

Taking the top set of stats, 2yo handicaps, 16/1 or under : 71/363, 137 places , +107 SP , AE 1.17. So clearly his overall record in such races is decent enough and a good start. But we can get the same profit levels from 230 fewer bets by digging down a bit more..Now, when there are multiple rules you should always be suspicious as there is a danger of intentional or unintentional ‘back-fitting’. Clearly all of the rules need some logic behind them, which there is above. A horse at the bottom of the weights, on ratings, is the worst in the race on what they have achieved to date. It would make sense that they may underperform. By racing in a handicap previously they are more experienced, rather than stepping straight out of maiden company. Those that finished 1st LTO have clearly been penalised for this/shown their hand more and Fahey struggles to get a second win on the bounce with them.

Clear Worst in the weights, so bottom weight: 2/35, 10 places: -22.25 SP , AE 0.39

1st LTO: 19/101, 41 places: +5.15 SP / AE 0.94. – Not bad but just underperforming based on their starting price and they don’t pay very well. Those that were 1st in a handicap nursery LTO are: 6/40, 20 places . 15% SR . -17 SP

Those with 0 handicap runs previously: 31/174, 56 places, 17.82% SR, +19.83 SP , AE 1.05. So, not too bad, but against those with some handicap experience already: 40/189, 81 places, 21% SR , +87 SP , AE 1.27

All combines this appears like a decent way to reduce bets while improving the profits slightly. In October his stats with the above are: 36 bets / 11 wins / 18 places / +53 SP. So, for 10 or fewer bets in the next 4 weeks or so we could have some fun. He has been in form forever it seems and it will be interesting if he can maintain this. But, a decent little angle for the portfolio for next season.

As is often the case with angles such as these, price is a guide. Over 16/1: 2/25, 3 places / 8% SR , +35 SP, +50 BFSP. Clearly you will be backing a lot of losers over 16/1 but a couple have gone in.

***

EMMA LAVELLE 

A notoriously tricky stable to predict – well near enough impossible, but it is possible at this time of year. I believe she has moved stables so it will be interesting how that pans out. She can clearly trainer but has struggled to get much longevity out of her runners. Whether that was her facilities or approach, or a mixture, I am not sure. 

  • National Hunt Only 
  • ALL race types 
  • October/November ONLY 
  • Age 3-5 
  • 14/1 or under 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 146 50 34.25 146.91 82 56.16 186.8 127.94 52.12 1.65
2014 23 5 21.74 5.9 9 39.13 8.18 35.57 -1.55 1.23
2013 25 12 48 29.5 20 80 33.51 134.05 18.2 2.15
2012 16 3 18.75 8.25 6 37.5 8.58 53.65 2.33 0.98
2011 32 13 40.63 56.09 18 56.25 75.27 235.21 13.75 2.08
2010 24 11 45.83 31.09 16 66.67 38.3 159.58 11.5 1.78
2009 26 6 23.08 16.08 13 50 22.95 88.27 7.88 1.15

I have tweaked this a bit from last season, whereby the stats were similar, +4 points over the two months which wasnt spectacular but was still a 20% ROI. 

It is clear that she does very well with her younger, more unexposed horses, who are clearly more forwards than many at this time of year. This covers hurdlers, chasers,NHF horses, handicaps and non handicaps where all of the stats are robust. 

Age 6+  when all other rules the same she is: 28/163, 67 places, 17% SR , -39 SP, AE 0.85. 

All other months the stats for same rules: 37/321, 116 places, 11% SR , -124 SP , AE 0.69. 

Over 14/1 she is: 1/14, 2 places +7 SP. That is fine and should be used as a guide. In the past a ‘poor’ year has been followed by an exceptional one. Given the change of surroundings slight caution advised but it could be a fun couple of months, time will tell. 

***

I will post all ‘qualifiers’ in the daily posts (can’t promise anything at weekends – if there is no post on a Sunday say, do not assume there are no qualifiers) The October trainers average about 1.2 bets per day over the course of the month. Lavelle around 3 bets per week and Fahey will have around 10 qualifiers in Oct if history is repeated. 

***

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • Thank you josh another really interesting article.

    steve 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Steve

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh, appreciate your efforts, spot on! 🙂

    Waftycranker 1 year ago Reply


    • Thanks – hopefully they help find us all a few winners.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh last month,first class information.

    Norrie 1 year ago Reply


    • No problem Norrie, my pleasure. Let’s just hope they work!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh, that’s October sorted.

    Barry

    Barry 1 year ago Reply


    • I do hope so Barry, if only it was that easy! But, they will find a few winners, let’s hope enough to make a nice little profit on the month.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • I read in the racing post about Lavelles move to Makins old stable Josh, she said the move will be next year so i think we should be safe for now! September was great and i’m really looking forward to cashing in on the october angles!!! Good luck 🙂

        james 1 year ago Reply


        • Thanks James – I should really read that paper more! Yes, so for now, we should be fine!

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Having made excellent profits in September, I look forward to October hopefully doing the same and hope you make it a regular feature month on month, even if we had a couple of losing months through the year it would be profitable. once again thanks for all your hard work Josh.

    Paul 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Paul, yes that is certainly the aim, I have no plans to stop anytime soon 🙂 As you say, it is about the course of the year for me. If they can collectively make 50+ points a year I won’t be complaining. An average of +10 a month would obviously be nice.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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