Tip/Shortlist of the Day 24/09/15

An indifferent day yesterday but one well backed 5/2 winner >6/4 ensured while it was a losing day for me personally it wasn’t a disaster. All the Perth chasers were quite poor in truth although Presented was sent off at 11/2, backed from 10/1 – its a shame that he then ran like a 10/1 shot! 

George Baker did have a winner at Kempton 6/1- his AW runners are harder to predict in September historically however the trainer/jockey combo was the way in with that one. I believe I have highlighted it before at some point in the past. Baker/Cosgrave/Kempton Handicaps/20/1 or under: 43 bets / 10 wins / 23 places / +50.5 SP (+12 this year)

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Onto today…

Newmarket Cambridgeshire

I have posted a trainers stats piece if you are yet to have a flick through and as promised the ‘qualifiers’ are below..

Race 1 – 2.00pm

Linguistic (prohibitive odds!?) / Impediment (market support vital, 8/1 or under)

Race 2 – 2.35 

Nothing from those trainers but some stats that would have been in today’s ‘shortlist’

Hugo Palmer is 5/12, 6 places with handicap debutants in past year. 1/3 at Newmarket. Runs Ronnie Baird here. He also runs Peru is the 3.30 Ponte as well. Both ‘qualify’. 

Race 3 – 3.10 

Queens Pearl – runs for Varian who is 2/7, 3 places at handicaps at the meeting since 2010, 2/6, 3 places with 3yos. 

Race 4 – 3.40

Tasleet – possibly strongest ‘stat’ horse of the card – Haggas has strong stats with this type, even better stats with those that ran at York LTO, and with those that finished 1st LTO. Ticks plenty of ‘stats’ boxes in terms of the type of horse this trainer does well with at this meeting. 

Race 5 – 4.15

Flying Officer. 

Arabian Commet (16/1 or under) – could be interetsing EW bet for Haggas again. 

Race 6 – 4.50 

Peterhof for Sir Michael – 8/1 or under. 

Race 7 – 5.20 

Rifle Range, again for Varian, same stats as above

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I have not looked at the races or indeed the horses, simply those that ‘qualify’ of interest from the trainers stats post I have put up for this meeting. Do consult those stats and use as you please. Some are obviously more robust than others, and as always treat such sample sizes with a bit of caution. 

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The Shortlist 

4.00 Ponte – New Bidder comes out again after running a stormer at Ayr by himself down the near side. He could be better drawn but looks like he could get out and get to the front – if so he could take some catching. From a quick glance the Fahey horse is an obvious threat – with 4 places I have had 1/2 on New Bidder EW. It all depends whether that last run has taken anything out of him, but if he repeats it he wont be too far away here. 

4.25 Perth – R Dobbin/C Nicol/Perth handicaps: 5/16, 8 places, +2.53 SP. They run Politeness in 4.25 – solid yardstick who should be thereabouts. From a quick glance at race Its All An Act also caught the eye back over hurdles, although am never a massive fan of those switching back – but he doesn’t look like he relishes chasing. 

There is a card at Chelmsford tonight and as always there I like to spot any front runners that could last all the way…

7.45 – Mighty Zip, with a decent speed rating, is interesting at a double figure price. His turf form has been poor but maybe he just likes the AW. He will need to be quick out from the car park, otherwise game over – draw makes it tough but I will have a nibble at those odds to find out. 

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SEPTEMBER TRAINERS…

3.10 Newm (Ivory, 16/1 or under): Golden Amber/Links Drive Lady

3.30 Ponte – Boutan (8/1 or under, bigger ones have been winning/placing)

4.00 Ponte Nezar (8/1 or under)

4.35 Ponte El Beau (8/1 or under)

7.15 Chelm – Mr Soprano (16/1 or under)

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Good Luck 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

5 Comments

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  • I stumbled over Impediment early this morning, liked the pedigree for this test and took a punt as Sir M. is profitable with his newcomers at BF prices. I also backed Arabian C. on the basis that a step up in trip is advantageous. There’s not so much value in 340 as competition and I can’t justify a bet though Tasleet at evens a place will force my hand – hmm
    My best value bet is Bonds Girl 310, very unlucky over CD 3 runs back and excuses since. RF has an excellent course record with his sprinters.
    The horses I’d like to back at Ponte are badly drawn in the main but Castorbridge and Syncopate in the final ones have chances.

    Chris 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Just love your September Trainers, plenty of nice winners and well in profit, I have just joined your Trainer Track Profiles and looking forward to the Jumping season.

    Are you sure Boutan qualifies for the 3.30 at Pontefract as itsb a Nursery?

    Derek

    Derek 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Derek, many thanks – and yes they have done rather well, I now need to look ahead to October. Thanks for getting a copy of TTP, I know you will have lots of fun using that, as we all will.

      To answer your question..yes he does. Whenever you see me refer to handicaps, and the monthly trainers are always handicaps to date, that means all handicap races unless otherwise stated. Baker is actually 2/5, 4 places in Nurseries during this month since 2010 – for a loss of -0.5 points, suggesting it is the well backed ones to look out for, the market isnt strong for him, but then he has had a few biggies this month.

      That handicap rule also applies to Trainer Track Profiles…so the stats will include Novice handicaps for example, selling Handicaps. If there is ‘handicap’ in the race description the stats apply. Often we are dealing with small enough samples and I don’t like to mess with them too much and I didn’t want to over complicate things.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Joss thanks for in depth reply to my querry, its just that my bookies web site and my daily paper neither listed the race as
        a Handicap. Should not have doubted you.

        Derek

        Derek 1 year ago Reply


        • No problem…do never hesitate to query something if it doesn’t look right, I do get it wrong sometimes and occasionally miss something!

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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