Tip of the Day 22/09/15

Well for now I appear to perform well without the ‘pressure’ of tipping! The tips will be back at some point but I may just wait until the handicap chases start coming thick and fast, the further they run the better.(my ‘tipping’ race type of choice- although time will be the true test of that statement) Clearly there is a bit of educated guessing at this time of year when it comes to fitness etc with the jumpers. 

For now, the shortlist is working well and I am not going to curse a horse by tipping it given my recent run. If I could repeat yesterday over and over again I would. 6 horses were shortlisted, finishing UP, 2,1,1,2,2 – all of those seconds were under 1/2 a length and all looked like winning at one stage in the final furlong. The two winners drifted to 5/1 and 6/1 and made for a decent day. Baker then added the bonus of an 8/1 winner, with two unplaced horses that drifted (I backed them all)- he really is in form at the moment and we have something to look forward to next September with his string! 

So, no Tip again today but another shortlist that has a few horses of interest in…

Fanshawe/Tylicki team up again today at Kempton. The trainer 50/205, 101 places with handicappers at the track, now 14/45, 23 places with this jockey. BOTH of the horses that follow also ran on the turf LTO and therefore qualify for the Fanshawe AW Switchers micro system, which has a 30% SR with winners at all odds. 

8.10 Kemton – Fly – he appears to be the fancied one and is being backed, generally 5/2. 

8.40 Kempton – Aumerle – currently 16/1 with PP, a bit if an error I think given prices of the rest, I have a full point on Fly, and 1/2 on this one.

2.40 Warwick – Nick Williams is 6/16, 10 places with stable newcomers in recent years for +29 points SP. He runs Imperial Glance here. I have just checked his record in novice hurdles and it is 19/65, 33 places since 2010, +23 points SP. A solid 30% win SR. 2/9, 5 places with Johnson up in non-handicap hurdles (maidens+novice). So, plenty there for me to have had 1/2 point on at 10/1. The ‘trainer change’ stat will pay over time. 

***

Trainer Track Profiles – POINTERS

I won’t detail every horse that the guide may throw up, and I won’t list them everyday (esp weekends/sundays) but I will put up the odd horse of interest and those I have backed…

Warwick…(all stats from guide, handicaps only, unless stated- ie from bonus guide)

3.40 – Dr Robbin runs for Bowen who is 3/10, 5 places with his hurdlers here. A small sample but they have ran well to date and he clearly doesn’t send many here. On breeding this horse looks like he will relish the step up in trip – but with a 9lb rise he will have to. 7/1 was worth 0.75 points for me. Tim Vaughan also runs Uncle Tone (he is 1/1 with handicap debutants at the track- got that from Geegeez report) and is 3/5 with his handicap hurdlers here. He looks to be weak in the market, and took an age to win a maiden hurdle – I am not sure if he will be good enough but have had 0.25 points on. The fav is a danger for team skelton – he has solid stats with his stable newcomers and this horse would go close if discovering old form. You could make a case to back him just on trainer change stats. 

4.10 – Kilbree Kid – I also have 1/2 point on him at 11/2. Tom George is 4/10, 4 places with handicap chasers here, 4/9 when Brennan is up. The break should be no problem for him – he does have to prove a liking for going LH – the jury is still out on whether he is best RH, but as yet that is not conclusive. Hobbs/Jonjo/NTD have poor enough records with their chasers here given power of the yards- maybe it is asking too much for all of theirs to be beaten today. 

Highland Lodge is a bit of a dog but if putting it all together could well demolish this field. I think I heard on ATR the other day that Emma Lavelle had moved her yard – if that is so I don’t blame her – for whatever reason, bar months of Oct/Nov, her string have never been predictable and have arguably been disappointing. She can clearly train and is maybe a yard to watch more closely this year. 

Finally…

4.40 – Gone Too Far – Alan King is 4/17, 8 places with chasers here, 3/8, 6 places with Hutchinson up. The trainer is in fine form at the moment and I will take fitness on trust. 1/2 on at 11/2 – it is safe to say I fear Creepy who has been very well backed and who has a decent record fresh. I wouldn’t back him at those odds now and he could well win, but if he falters, 11/2 is a fair price to take about Gone Too Far capitalising. 

***

 

You can still get a copy for £27 below…(will become £44 (£37+VAT) on Thursday via ClickBank)


****

SEPTEMBER TRAINERS…

Williams (16/1 or under)

-2.50 Ling – Cherry Kool

-3.20 Ling- Ben Muir 

-6.40 Kemp – Chief Entertainer 

-7.10 Kemp – Fable of Arachne

***

Good Luck with all your bets today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Think at this time of year its best to wait for the jump season proper ..I myself only back the All Weather and the jumps from now to the beginning of May …..with the ground and other factors I have found that the flat turf is unpredictable at best..

    harold 22/09/15 9:34 AM Reply


  • could you send trainrr track profiles again havelost it onmy laptop apologies not very good on computer

    robert 22/09/15 11:51 AM Reply


    • Hi Robert, have sent you an email.
      Josh

      Josh Wright 22/09/15 1:03 PM Reply


  • What a first day for me josh with the trainer profiles
    Mr Santo 8/1
    Gone To Far 4/1
    Midnight Mint 14/1

    Cannot thank you enough

    Dave 22/09/15 5:07 PM Reply


    • Well done Dave…yes I owe blog readers an apology, but glad you Stats buyers made hay!! Can see why backed Mr Santo – Jonjos stats very good when you take away those when McLernon riding, now 7/32 at track – all that info was there..i missed him. Of more annoyance for blog I left Midnight Mint on my notepad..I had half point on..using the guide and Geegeez Report I saw that Scott was 5/19, 6 places with handicap debutants in last year – at 14s a no brainer given also 2/9 with hurdlers at track.

      Well done, superb stuff! A sign of things to come!

      Josh Wright 22/09/15 5:19 PM Reply


Post A Reply