Tip of the Day 21/09/15

The sprint handicaps at Ayr were a puzzle as always and thanks to two places in the Gold Cup the post came out in front just, to the tune of +2 points. Not spectacular, but better than nothing! It was a day to stick with Fahey, as I know some of you did, and the master trainer, who has been banging in big handicap winners all season, did it again. That was a mightily impressive performance from Don’t Touch, given his age, number of runs etc -a group horse in the making. Buckstay ran a fine race and as expected came late – he may need a stiffer track for this trip, and a stronger pace – but I wouldn’t discount him going well over 6f at somewhere like Ascot and it will be interesting where he turns up next. Johara- well a line can be put through that run, simple as that. Niggled and hanging after 1f, she clearly didn’t run her race – no need to analyse that and further. 

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Thanks to all of you have grabbed a copy of my Trainer Track Profiles stats guide, now 121 of you…I was rushing about yesterday before a trip to Anfield (a long enough trek from Suffolk- many of my Norwich friends were happy though, as a Liverpool fan, less so) and didn’t look at the cards in much depth. I had a couple of bets on horses that lost – and then noticed on my return home that Paul Henderson had a 7/1 winner at Plumpton in a novice handicap chase, bolstering his already impressive chase stats at the track (a near 25% SR, over 20 bets) – I missed him in my rush, but I hope some of you didn’t, as the stats were solid -albeit if you just looked at the horses form you probably wouldn’t have touched him!  

You can still get a copy for £27 below…


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There is NO tip today, but a considered shortlist of horses I hope/expect to run well. I have at least 1/2 points on them all…

In the order they are on my notepad…

4.40 Kempton – Steal River – looks a tad overpriced at 8/1 given the trainer is 6/20, 8 places at track here – this horses being 1/8 or in handicaps at the track – so take him out and trainers stats are 5/12 odd at track with handicappers. He is back over his correct trip here, but does need a strong pace to aim at. Winston has won on him and provided they go quick enough (looks to be a bit of pace on paper) he could go well. 

4.10 Kempton – Fanshawe/Tylicki team up here with Return Ace – she makes her handicap debut – Fanshawe 7/36, 16 places with handicap debutants at the track. Fanshawe 49/204, 100 places at track, and 13/44, 22 places with the jockey. They are strong stats – enough to ignore the horse in truth – that maiden is not working out too well albeit she won well. 11/2 was fair although weak in the market. 

2.50 Hamilton – Stubb/Butterfield are 3/5, 3 places at track and team up with Gold Beau here. Provided it stays Good to Firm – (possibly some showers, I hope they stay away) this horse will go very close at 4/1. He needs good to firm, drops into C6 for first time in a while (1/1) has a decent CD record and is very well handicapped. If he is going to return to winning ways it will be in these conditions. But, it is a c6 handicap, and any rain would see him take a walk in the market. He is 4/6 when 6/1 or under. 

1.50 Hamilton – Johnston Fanning team up with First Party here, and have one other later on the card who I would struggle to make a form/profile case for. They are 25/100, 45 places when teaming up at the track. This horse had a break and ran ok LTO. Stepped up to 6f here, there is lots of stamina in the pedigree, and given that I wonder if Fanning will bump her out and try and run the others into the ground. She could just be one paced mind. She was 3/1 which was just about ok for an interest, now 5/2. 

5.10 Kempton – Si Senor goes for Vaughan and Tylicki who are 4/7, 5 places when teaming up, 2 of those wins on this horse. It is interesting that he drops back into C4 here having been highly tried and is 3/6 over CD. He was drawn really wide LTO and had no chance. There are some progressive rivals in here but 4/1 was fair enough earlier, now 7/2, and I suspect we will see a better showing. 

Finally, Circuitous runs in the 2.20 Hamilton. We backed him two starts ago when he dropped out – he ‘bounced back’ at Ayr and ran a fine race in third over 7f at 14/1 – I thought he had a strange ride/tactics when we backed him, and his Ayr run was maybe why! Back over a stiff 6f here, in a poor race, he could well feature – although 7/2 is maybe skinny enough. He has a decent record returning within 7 days and has dropped so far down the weights they will surely get another win from him at some point.  I have had a small nibble to try and get my losses back from the other day. 

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I have 4.5 points spread across that little lot and hope one/two of them go in at least, but we shall see. Kempton isn’t usually that kind to me! 

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September Trainers 

I didn’t have time to post selections yesterday but BJ had a 2/1 winner to cover two other losers, so if you missed all three you didn’t miss out on any profit, if backing all to level stakes. 

2.30 Leic Fable of Arachne (16/1 or under)

5.00 Leic Mister Mayday (8/1 or under- Baker, bigger ones have been winning)

5.30 Leic Mrs Warren (Baker, as above) 

 

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Good Luck 

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Charlie Appleby won all the 2YO races on this Kempton Card this day last year.

    Steve 21/09/15 9:42 AM Reply


    • Thanks Steve, interesting info that – and he has a couple in here at decent enough prices – may be a negative in itself but probably worth some interest.

      Josh Wright 21/09/15 9:49 AM Reply


  • Just a quick note about c.f wall runners Josh, i carried on tracking them with the same rule as you set out for august. Its fair to say he’s best avoided in september. Gosdens runners have been almost as bad altho picking up a couple of wins, with a couple of changes i think i’ve spotted a pattern but wont be able to confirm that until next year! I will email you my revisions so you can take a look 🙂

    james 21/09/15 11:26 AM Reply


    • Cheers James…yes monthly trainer form is a funny old thing, Maybe Wall does just get them to peak at that time of year due to his approach and then by early September,because many have ran and done their winning, their handicap marks are then too high. Gosden didn’t have a great August either although far from a disaster…I do need to do a review of them (the type of thing I always drop to the bottom of my to do list!) but will make sure I write a review post looking at them and September’s lot. I had better look at October soon, and need to dust off the old Emma Lavelle system..

      Josh Wright 21/09/15 12:02 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Some great results today mate thanks.

    A cold one waiting for you here

    BRIAN

    Brian 21/09/15 9:50 PM Reply


    • Cheers Brian…yes that was a good day indeed – if I could repeat that everyday we would be doing well! 3/9, 6 in the top 2 (inc two Baker drifters that I backed) made it a very decent day! Glad you were on a few/all.

      Josh Wright 22/09/15 7:03 AM Reply


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