Tip of the Day: 07/09/15

There were a few winners buried in Saturday’s post, and a few that didn’t run so well. The ‘trends’ shortlist for the Haydock race threw up the fast finishing second (20/1) and 3rd (33/1), although I didn’t back either. Most of the ‘shortlist’ horses were poor, but I did put up Kie for the Pipes who won well at 11/1 ( effect 8/1 after R4)- now, I thought he would lead, with a doubt about stamina- clearly Scu had the same doubts so he held him back off a moderate pace before asserting in the straight- still, a winner is a winner and I was happy with that result. Not many of the September Selections actually ‘qualified’ on price, but Williams managed the winner of the last at Wolverhampton, 4/1 was the price I got but I think he was bigger earlier in the morning/night before. Suzis Connoisseur ran a cracker and went to the lead at Ascot before looking to shirk it. Nearly a decent winner at 12/1.

Sunday…JJ Quinn had a big priced winner at 16/1 that ‘qualified’ bar the price guide. He was 1/32 or so before that with horses over 8/1 and he also had 2 losers as well at bigger prices. The price ‘rules’ are always a guide and clearly his horses are in fine form at the moment. I didn’t back him but all his runners may be worth a second look.

Chris Gordon had two chase winners at Fontwell – he was 1/12, 4 places with chasers in September and I noted how it would be interesting to see how they went this time around. Clearly that is not a set of numbers to be dogged about and his handicap chasers during this month maybe worth a second look. Fontwell was kind to me yesterday as both those winners at 6/1, 11/4 and Taradrewe at 5/1 reminded me that I still know what I am doing – to some extent!

Anyway..onto today…

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2.10 Perth

Strobe – 1.5 points win 7/2

The trainer is 5/26, 8 places with her handicap chasers here (or was when I wrote the guide) with most of those wins coming with this horse.

Strobe is the one that beat According to Sarah by a nose last time out, much to my annoyance. That was an impressive return to form and an impressive run by both. They were taking each other on from a long way out and beat the rest comfortably. If Strobe repeats that run I think he wins this quite well. At this level, with these horses, it can be more in the mind and he isn’t the most consistent. But, 7/2 felt too big.

I think he could get an easier lead here than last time and actually takes a drop in class (2/4 in C5 chases). He has won of higher marks in the past and if putting his best foot forward we will get a run for our money. He is 4/13, 5 places in handicap chases at the track.

My confidence also stems from the level of opposition, which I am struggling to rate. The Elliot horse is 0/7, 1 place chasing. Is clearly unexposed in this sphere but does need to do more over fences. He is slowly getting better but i couldn’t take that price for a non chase winner. Roc De Prince’s trainer is 1/31 at the track and the horse is 0/5,1 place chasing. His last 4 runs have been poor. Not for me. Mister D is 0/10, 3 places chasing, and is 0/7, 0 places going right handed. He has enough to prove. Karingo doesnt look very good and is 0/12, 1 place chasing, very poor last three runs. I couldnt back him. Prince Blackthorn is really out of form and is now 0/7, 2 places for this trainer. I would want to see more before getting involved. Champagne Agent is 0/14, 0 places chasing – I just cant, although he has shown some more life recently.

That leaves Manger Hanagment – he has stamina over hurdles but over fences is 0/7, 0 places beyond 16.5f – so he has that to prove. He comes here after a break and has a bit to prove for me. He has been backed though, he was double this price last evening I think. Shine A Diamond is 2/17, 4 places chasing – his last win at Muss was lucky when left in the lead. This trip may suit more but with a 67 day break also has some questions to answer.

For me there is no According to Sarah in here, and if Strobe runs like he did last time he will go very close indeed. Hopefully he leads all the way, gets in a rythm and that will be that! He has the least to prove in this field and unlike most of them is definitely fit, and is in form, with no questions to answer as to the race conditions. 

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Shortlist… 

-Roger Charlton is 6/10 at Brighton with handicappers since 2009. He runs Equity Risk here at 4/1 and that stat alone is probably enough for an interest. The horse has stamina to prove but I suspect he will run well enough. (3.30)

-Simcock is in form – 5/15, 7 places last 14 days and is also 15/53, 28 places with handicappers at the track. He runs Escrick in the 2.00 at 5/2. He must have  decent chance in this. I backed the fav last time out at 12/1 (a profile horse -loves soft) and while she may run a big race she is 0/19 outside of soft going, albeit she hacked up last time. 

-Deacon is 4/13, 6 places at Windsor and Dawn Catcher runs in the 3.50 at 7/1. It looks at open enough moderate handicap sprint but this horse is still progressive I think and I expect he may not be too far away – i have had a go at 7s. 

-Tony Martin – he is 3/9, 5 places with handicap debutants at Galway and runs Free Radical in the 6.05. 

-Finally I did look at the 3.10 Perth where Robin’s Command looks to improve an impressive course record. He could just be coming to the boil again, but unlike the Strobe race, I found it harder to dismiss a lot of his rivals. You could make a case for a handful in here but 4s is fair and another I expect to run his race.

 

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September Trainers

-3.20 Wind – Boutan (8/1 or under)

-3.30 Bright- Gone Viral (8/1 or under)

-4.30 Bright – Flutterbee (8/1 or under)

-5.20 Wind – Secret Bird (16/1 or under) – Dean Ivory, I will start including for now. Between 5-7f with handicappers in Aug/Sept, 16/1 or under he is: 109 bets / 26 wins / 40 places / +124 SP / AE 1.8

He is 4/11 +27 in 2015 to date, those profits coming in August (i wasnt on any of them)

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Good Luck  

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • As ever very interesting and informative stats ..regards Perth noticed Gordon Elliott hasn’t had a winner in over 2 weeks ..usually does really well with his hurdlers will be intresting to see if he has them primed for today …

    harold 07/09/15 10:37 AM Reply


    • Cheers, hopefully a winner or three amongst that lot!…yes the Elliot/Perth angle is well and truly out the bag now and it is a case of trying to pick the right ones, but often he form of the horse doesnt matter as much for him here – which makes it hard. 4.40 looks to be between his horse and Maraweh – interestingly the horse Maraweh beat LTO runs earlier in the card – Johnny Go – and he is expected to go well again I think. They may be fighting out the finish, none of others won in class, or class above, from quite a few goes. Marlie Massie ran better LTO, looks an interesting race.

      Josh Wright 07/09/15 10:51 AM Reply


  • When you think it can’t get worse. , I’m annoyed with myself as I backed it ten mins to off at 8/1 on betfair .The market screamed at me it wouldn’t win but I still proceeded . I get disgruntled when it sppears that horse never had a chance of winning .Probably talking through my wallet , but this current run is shocking.

    michael 07/09/15 1:23 PM Reply


    • Yes it is shocking, not much more I can add. He had an off day, and actually if he were 8/1 this morning I would have been more likely to have a dart at that price. I am surprised how quickly he threw in the towell there, and yes the drift did sound alarm bells,having been backed earlier in the day. It will turn around, it is rather frustrating that every one I put up at the moment isn’t running their race at all. It will turn around, at some point!

      Josh Wright 07/09/15 1:40 PM Reply


  • Great day for anyone taking last nights 6/1 for Robins command! Gutted i didnt tick ew for boutan 2nd and drifted out to 14/1! Looking like a good day today Josh 🙂

    james 07/09/15 2:38 PM Reply


    • Yes it is rather – bar the main tip eh 🙂 – Robins Command (i got 4s – thought race was more competitive than that on paper!! – and another FR was a NR) and Equity Risk has just won well too! Simcock’s 2nd and Baker has had two places – yes Boutan drifted 6s to 14s, Gone Viral just ran well in 3rd in Equity’s race as well. So, bar my final decision making, shortlist is doing ok again.

      Josh Wright 07/09/15 2:40 PM Reply


  • Yep the bad luck continues on the main tips ..going on the shortlist horses and the monthly stats this will change quite soon by the looks of it ..I myself had been on a pretty baron run plenty placed but no winner ..Today I had ICANBOOGIE 5.00 brighton ..managed 53.00 on betfair ..proves that all bad runs come to an end ..J GALLAGHER …good stats for older horses at brighton also good end of season stats …

    harold 07/09/15 6:12 PM Reply


    • Well done Harold..patience is rewarded and you have to savour winners like that! Superb. Well given Heartsong won earlier in day I think by time that winner went in he was 4/6 in last 14 days, a decent bet indeed. I am having no problem in finding winners in general,just ”tipping’ them an issue, and that simply comes down to my decision making,but if my daily shortlist keeps throwing up winners we will be fine long term.

      Josh Wright 07/09/15 6:18 PM Reply


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