Saturday 05/09/15: Some Punting Pointers

When you are backing and ‘advising’ others to part with money on horses that fall out the back of the tv it is rather disheartening.  Yesterday’s two runners knocked me back slightly as I expected so much more. This is a game of the mind as much as anything else and, while it is always important to reflect on what you are doing, if you are confident in your approach, you have to keep going. There is no room for self pity here, the only response has to be to work harder and be more thorough, confident that over time the profits will grow. 

While I may have struggled to ‘tip’ winners recently the blog, and the ‘Tip of the Day’ posts, have been finding winners. Having had a look back through since the start of August the ‘Shortlist’ horses are approximately 46 bets / 11 wins / +40.7 points (1 point level stakes win only). That does include two winners at 33/1 and yesterday’s 20/1 winner. Over time I have tried to narrow the shortlist down to horses/races I have looked at and have some level of confidence in. This ‘stats’ based approach to identifying value bets does work, and it will be interesting to track how they continue to do moving forward. Clearly I need to start ‘tipping’ a few more but I know many of you have used the info to back plenty of those winners, so there continues to be value in my ramblings. 

In truth I can’t wait for the jumps season to get going now, and I am bit mentally frazzled to dive into the sprint handicaps and the G1 sprint today. I am not in the right frame of mind to ‘tip’ today, so hopefully you can use what follows below to help in some way…(what to avoid maybe 🙂 ) 

Some Pointers..

 

3.10 Haydock 

10/12 had won 4 or more times 

9/12 rated 90+

9/12 raced at Haydock before 

9/12 previous winner over 5f 

9/12 9 or more runs his season 

(stats taken from ‘Saturday TV Trends post over at Geegeez – always a useful and time saving article) 

On my calculation Silvanus and Midlander are the only one to tick all of those boxes. The ‘4 or more wins’ stat knocks out quite a few. Distant Past (interesting that Spencer heads to Ascot again?) falls down on ‘seasons runs stat, and so does Blithe Spirit, Desert Ace, Bfifty2 and My Name is Rio – but they all tick every other box. Indescribable has yet to run at Haydock, but ticks all the rest and Johnston’s horses can always bounce back from nowhere. 

This looks a right conundrum as you would expect. I may just stick to the stats and back the two ‘qualifiers’ for 1/4 points/interest but hopefully the stats are upheld and one of them wins. 

The Betfred Sprint Cup looks super competitive as you would expect and you could make a case for quite a few in here. I have no strong views on the race and will enjoy watching it. I think I have a ‘free’ £5 bet from Bet365 that I may put on Pearl Secret at a big price – based on nothing more that he caught my eye at Ascot a couple of runs ago and this is only his 3rd run at the trip, yet to conclusively prove he doesnt stay. Good Luck with wherever your pin lands 🙂 

***

The races at Ascot look near enough impossible to my eye. 

In the 2.50 Stuart Williams really did fancy Suzi’z Connoisseur last time out at Goodwood. This horse can front run, with the blinkers back on, and Fanning booked, I do wonder if they will race handy and try and see them all off. He may not like Goodwood and his last race here was solid form. 

I have a feeling Ryan may win a decent enough pot with Al Khan at some point but I think he needs it firmer, but Spencer rides and he has been on fire the last few days. 

Hawkeyethenoo is the other that caught my eye when having a quick flick. Mainly as I remember backing him EW for 1/4 points at 50/1 when he got 3rd here earlier in the season for a previewed race. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in here which would be a slight concern but he may not be far away. 

The 4.35 looks challenging as well. Highland Acclaim, Dawns Early Light, Squats and Cartmell Cleave caught my eye, but that is only a cursory glance. 

***

Tip Of the Day 

No tip today but some considered stats of interest…

-Sir Mark Prescott doesnt mess around at Haydock. 12/31, 22 places with handicappers here. With Luke Morris – 6/13, 9 places. High Secret (2.35) and Aleator (5.30) have to be of some interest. 

-S Dow is 11/47, 20 places with handicappers at Wolverhampton and you could do a lot worse than just back them blind, +71 points since 2009. He runs Autumn Tonic in the 8.30 at a decent price. He is also 2/4 with  this jockey here. This is the horses first run at the track which I found interesting. On paper it is a very weak race, with every horse having something to prove. I have had an EW nibble. 

-Sir Michael Stoute is 3/8, 4 places with hadicappers at Thirsk and sends one up there today…Mukhayyam in the 3.20. He has won here before and it is possible to excuse quite a few of his runs and he has been highly tried. He drops back in class here, albeit it looks a competitive little race. 

-Barron and Gibbons are 15/57, 27 places at Wolvs, +55 points since 2009. They run War Girl who makes her handicap debut in the 6pm.- Barron has a respectable enough 15% record with handicap debutants. Not much form to go on, but interesting, and she is very well bred. 

-Finally at Stratford a couple of Pace horses that caught the eye. 3.50 Kie – runs for the fourth time for Pipe. This out and out front runner has been a decent chaser in the past. The concern is the trip – he is a 20f horse at best I think – but he is getting older, and if he gets an easy lead it is possible he could just see it out. 11s is tempting, albeit I would not be shocked if he faded in the straight. Zama Zama will also make a good fist of it from the front in the 5.00. His form of his last win here has worked out well and he should run his race. 

***

September Trainers 

-2.05 Stratford – Drummond (25/1 or under) 

-2.50 Asct – Fiftyshadesofgrey (8/1 or under) / Suzis Connoisseur (16/1 or under)

-3.10 Hayd – Harry Hurricane (8/1 0r under) 

-4.35 Asct – Muir Lodge (8/1 or under)

-5.25 Thirsk – Kashmir Peak (8/1 or under)

-5.30 Wolv 0 Mr Soprano (16/1 or under)

-5.45 Kempt – Mezzotint (16/1 or under)

-6.00 Wolv – Ben Muir (16/1 or under)

-9.00 Wolv – Monna Valley (16/1 or under) 

***

Good Luck with your Saturday wagers. 

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Hi josh , out of interest how did pearl secret catch
    Your eye at ascot .Had a look and nothing to this untrained eye would give me confidence in a race of this nature.

    michael 05/09/15 11:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Michael…
      Firstly if it were not for a free bet I would probably leave him,but 33s is big,maybe for a reason…at Ascot he was only one if top 6 to get close drawn high. He was held up in what looked to the eye like only a medium pace,with front 3 all up front all the way from memory. He was the only one to make any impression from the rear. That is what I found interesting, and he raced away from what pace there was up near side. So, with more pace in here-generally get on with it in this race- and still unproven over 6f, I thought he was interesting. Now he may not stay (not conclusive yet) and may well not be good enough,but 33s worth a chance with my free money.

      Josh Wright 05/09/15 11:24 AM Reply


      • Sorry..that referred to the first of his two Ascot runs, second only 4 days later which I was happy to overlook.

        Josh Wright 05/09/15 11:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I always enjoy reading the blog win,lose or draw it gives me great insight into a day’s racing. Like you I’m counting down the days until the NH is back in full flow, my tickets/flights are booked for the Open meeting already!!

    Keep up the good work, looking forward to the seeing the blog smash the bookies over the winter months….!

    Joe

    Joe 05/09/15 11:15 AM Reply


  • PS I really like Adaay in the big one the conditions are perfect today as per the ‘Instant Expert’ fingers crossed

    Joe 05/09/15 11:15 AM Reply


  • Certainly not easy sometimes everyone hits bad runs ,,,,,Put my head on the line and give you horses that I will be backing myself today …2.20 KEMP ..SPIRIT RAISER …fanshawe older horses at track always do well …5.10 KEMP …two of interest ..FRUITY and ELIZONA….the big sprint ..3.45 HAY ..ADAAY and WAADY ..gosden and haggas great records at track…5.30 HAY ..DAWN MISSILE and SECATEUR ..same again ,..5.25 THIRSK ..RALPHY LAD …small interest …5.55 THIRSK ..SCENT OF SUMMER…5.30 WOLVE ..MR SOPRANO ..6.00 WOLVE …BEN MUIR ..small interest …8.30 WOLVE .PRESSURE ..be feeling the pressure at 8.30 if having one of those days …

    harold 05/09/15 11:20 AM Reply


    • Great stuff Harold, and good luck. Coming out in front on a day like today always gives confidence,but these days can always get desperate by 5pm or so! Yes hopefully Williams can start to bang in some winners.

      Josh Wright 05/09/15 11:30 AM Reply


  • Great stuff as ever Josh.

    Some great research and the tips dont bother me… but its always good when we share a fancy

    GL all

    JohnB 05/09/15 11:24 AM Reply


  • My only bet today 2:05 stratford Grand enterprise 7/1. the Brennan/George combo has been doing quite well, has been worth following not just at southwell! Cheers for that one Josh

    james 05/09/15 11:25 AM Reply


    • Good luck James, yes in the right conditions/tracks they do very well. Got a feeling you may enjoy my latest projects,more on that soon. (Ebook packed with such stats,per track-every winter jumping track)

      Josh Wright 05/09/15 11:32 AM Reply


      • Just realised the time lol 5:35 not 2:05! I look forward to reading your book Josh and cant wait for the jumps season to start!!!!!

        james 05/09/15 1:43 PM Reply


  • I enjoy your comments and work up of the days racing and I am grateful for tipping me off about Horseracebase as I use it every day. The one feature of HRB which I really like the ability to combine the distance and the going in one go and I like using it in the bigger handicaps to try to ‘get an edge.’ In the 3.10 two horses that are getting ideal going and distance conditions are Fast Track and Desert Ace so I will probably have a small e/w bet on them or maybe trade them in running on Betfair.
    In the 3.45 Twilight Son,Tiggy Wiggy and Due Diligence get favourable conditions for them too.

    Good luck to you all today.

    john 05/09/15 1:11 PM Reply


  • Few placed ..big zero …in fact had 25 bets this week ,,not a winner ….12 placed …2nd 12/1 9/1 8/1 5/1..shows you how frustrating this game can be …It will change always does ..this time of year can be difficult in fact I don’t back flat turf from the last week in September …when the ground starts changing never good on the flat …I then go onto all weather and jumps …

    harold 06/09/15 2:40 AM Reply


    • Thanks for sharing Harold, nice to know it isn’t just me! I think you are right about being cautious in the next few weeks, esp with going and horses having had hard seasons etc.

      Josh Wright 06/09/15 12:49 PM Reply


  • Did anyone pick a winner on Saturday ? I gave up checking in the end

    I backed your four trainer stats at Haydock, Thirsk and Wolverhampton in a 20p e w lucky15 (a bet I would not normally touch but the odds were so high it looked like a cheap way to make a lot of dosh ) Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It could be time to give up the day job Josh

    Ron 06/09/15 5:40 PM Reply


    • Haha, I am yet to find a cheap way to find a lot of dosh! Kie won at 11/1 on shortlist (8/1 after R4)…although I expected him to lead he was held up, ridden for stamina, but he won well.Williams had a winner 4/1. (Was bigger in day),Suzi’s Con nearly won at 12s…’trends’ shortlist for haydock face found second and third at 20s,33s. With trainer stats like those at Haydock/Wolv they will pay long term.

      Josh Wright 06/09/15 7:11 PM Reply


  • Regarding the September trainers stats wich are very interesting and added them to my own stats …..cut off points for prices is the only thing i tend to disagree with though .. ..i.e if running in a 5 horse race and cut off point is 8/1 i will lower this …if running in a 16 plus horse race i will tend to look at the first half of the betting ..perfect example EL BEAU York on sunday …16/1 winner…other thing is C..GORDON ..and hid handicap chases ..TOM CANNON ..rides about 16 per cent strike rate with these higher than handicap hurdles ..sunday two winners …

    harold 07/09/15 5:08 AM Reply


    • Yes I don’t disagree with you..those stats were presented as they were so that you can make such a decisions, and interpret them as you see fit. Yes El Beau did win, and actually when I went back and looked at race you could have made a form case as well – he then had two big priced losers in 4.05 – micro angles like that are always good as a guide, but also to use as stand alone. JJ Quins stats were 1/32 or so over 8/1 since 2010,(cant just ignore that imo) so it will be interesting if he has anymore this month. I like your point about field size/price and is something to think about.

      Likewise Gordon – handicap chase stat for September was only 1/12, 4 places – not exactly a sample to dismiss out of hand – clearly that is improved now. I did back both of those chase winners – to my eye they had the best profile/form chance in their races anyway once I got around to looking in the afternoon.

      They are there for you to use as you see fit, and however you interpret them if you come out in front that is the main thing.

      Josh Wright 07/09/15 6:19 AM Reply


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